• Mirth

  • Post #1326

The general performance of the UK economy has more or less been in line with France/Italy and ahead of Germany but well behind the United States. i.e. fairly middling - and where it's been since 2008.

There's undoubtedly been sectors that have been impacted but most of the UK economy is service oriented so circumvented the bulk of the damage in aggregate.

Composition of trade in the UK and the rest of the G7
Within UK trade, there has been a significant and growing divergence between the performance of goods and services since the pandemic (Chart G).

Growth in UK goods trade (exports plus imports) has fallen well behind the rest of the G7. At the end of 2023, UK goods trade was around 10 per cent below 2019 levels, while it was around 5 higher on average for the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, UK services trade growth has been the strongest in the G7. It reached around 12 per cent above 2019 levels at the end of 2023, versus around 9 per cent above in the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

In the long term, the trends are about the same as well: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/article/uk-economy-will-grow-more-quickly-than-france-in-coming-years-dbr8ltfch

However, the wider point is that this level of growth was achievable within the EU as well and would have saved unnecessary hardship to individuals and saved political capital for real issues.

I don't particularly see how being out of the EU changes this growth trajectory as all major European players are facing the same headwinds. I also think Jazz's point on 'free trade' - a euphemism at the best of times - is wildly optimistic when the the world is increasing protectionist.

I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

    • JazzG

    • Post #1327

    awooga83 I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

    To me the EU is a bloc in serious decline and the way the politics are going in countries like Germany and France I wouldn't be surprised if there are further problems down the road for them. We saw it with the vaccine roll out how we were able to get out of the blocks a lot quicker and more recently with their policies towards AI. They are strangling themselves in red tape, Mario Draghi talked about this recently saying the EU is doing more harm to itself than any potential American tariffs.

    Any trade deal with the US doesn't have to be comprehensive, can be sector by sector.

      • JazzG

      • Post #1328

      Mirth I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

      I think that dynamic will take shape in the next year or so, either we go closer to the EU or we align with the US. From the sounds of things the US are very open to that and likewise as are the EU. We can't have both though.

          • Mirth

          • Post #1329

          JazzG we used to, though. Being a member of the EU and having close ties with the US was pretty much the whole jam.

            • Mirth

            • Post #1330

            Anyway, Trump thinks VAT should be considered tariffs. They're not.

            @JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

              • Gurgen

              • Post #1331
              • Edited

              His grasp of basic economic concepts is Khomeini level.

                • JazzG

                • Post #1332
                • Edited

                Mirth @JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

                I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it. I think the American's are worried about China, I think they are trying to force manufacturing back into the US, that is my theory anyway.

                I also think he is one the biggest bluffers going so everything he says needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Everything is a negotiation and whatever past customs there were make little to no difference to him. He'll use these tariffs as a weapon to get what he wants. Even this Russia/Ukraine war, I do wonder if he might be willing to be more flexible if a deal is done on Greenland. This is just me throwing things out there and thinking out loud!

                I'm not saying this is the right way to do things but that is how he operates.

                    Gurgen he has no clue. he's used to bullying people. remember in real estate once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space. you can bully cities because they are desperate for prime real estate investment. and you can bully the banks once they've given you massive loans because it's hard to move property. so you can have buildings where you just don't pay the mortgage.
                    he is taking this advantage he has built up in real estate and trying to apply it in international affairs, where the fall back options are very different.

                        JazzG I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it.

                        But this isn't about agreeing with his stance or reasoning, it's about him literally being factually wrong about VAT vs. tariffs. He's talking with certainty about things he clearly doesn't understand.

                            Claudius once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space

                            Trump never knew any other position. His old man was a colour-barred apartment slumlord before he ever even reached majority.

                              Yeah this the main point with his money has come influence and people accepting whatever he says. But it's not competence and particularly in relation to global affairs he has regularly demonstrated he doesn't understand the bigger strategic issues going into many of the complexities of global relations. Or even his comments during the COVID pandemic, it's not a problem to not understand these issues but he has such a lack of humility he cannot refrain from commenting and claiming he knows the answer.

                              It's the absurdity of this era we are in where people are fed up with how things have developed particularly in the west and the anti establishment zeitgeist which I understand and the want to change things. But if you want that you have to be honest about the issues at play. If you feel like people are taking your jobs well the discussion you might need to have is about your economic system which works to find the cheapest labour. When people back Brexit they blame the EU for migration issues that actually are within the UK's power and again it's related to your economy and the failure was UK politicians but nobody wants to acknowledge that.

                              Changing things is difficult and requires a multitude of expertise but the populist reaction has been we don't need that we can bring a charismatic idiot in and it'll be fine. Then your surprised that things don't improve? You've appointed this guy who has regularly shown he lacks the understanding and competency to handle the issues or grasp the problem what do you think is going to get better.

                              The tragedy is the very group's who have been left behind will be those that suffer the most when they eventually realise these frauds are no different and don't have any of the answers people will feel even more let down and angry and it further fuels the feeling of betrayal and leaves people open to even worse radicalisation.

                              • JazzG

                              • Post #1338

                              Germany being attacked from the left and right about free speech!

                                JazzG I think the current admin might have already put strain on European relations including a Vance himself so a bit rich to be throwing stones.

                                The only good thing is it's a big wake up call to Europe the current US administration are not reliable allies anymore and they are much more comfortable cosying up to the likes of Putin which is going to be in conflict with Europe's security interests in future so they will need to remove as much reliance as possible on them.

                                    • JazzG

                                    • Post #1340

                                    awooga83 The only good thing is it's a big wake up call to Europe the current US administration are not reliable allies anymore

                                    How long did Europe expect to keep getting subsidized security for? They've pissed their money away on other things, neglected their defence and now scrambling around panicking about it. Europe has been benefitting from a peace dividend and that time is now up.

                                    The US are acting like dicks about this but this is on Europe, the US did this as long as it suited their needs and now their focus is elsewhere. Many American presidents since the World War have been telling Europe to get serious about their defence spending, Trump is taking a much more forceful approach to it

                                        JazzG I think that's valid absolutely about funding. But my point is the way they are talking about engagement with Russia they are not acting as allies and the actions that are being attributed to them it's going to be very bad for Europe longer term. The trump administration seem to want to be better friends with Russia which is a massive thing Europe have to deal with which includes funding.

                                        But it's not the asking for Europe to pull it's weight. It's actively working behind Europe and Ukraine's backs and seeming to give Russia everything it wants and trying to welcome them back into the fold with no consequences. The message to Putin or any other authoritarian leader is do what you want and there will ultimately be no consequences.

                                        That approach will threaten European security and Europe will have to step up which involves distancing ourselves from the US because it looks like they are more interested in siding and become good friends with Russia. Trump has done much more then say you need to pay your dues he's focusing on alining the US with Russia which I don't think any US admin has done. That's a very different prospect and is a threat to Europe. Putin is also a much smarter operator then trump so he's coming out of this a big winner if it plays out as it is being reported. The UK will need to align itself closer to Europe as one of the outcomes from these shifts in my view our own security will require it.

                                            If there was any doubt about Trump's allegiances his latest comments about Ukraine are utterly disgraceful. People are dying and the war should never have started and really it's because Ukraine didn't do a deal to give their country away. No mention of Putin or Russia having any blame for actually starting the war or pressuring them because he's best buds with Putin. The guy is a total clown but worse then that as president he now had the power to try to force these positions on other countries. He has no honour or sense of strategical consideration. This is the person who is going to save democracy though🙄

                                            He just looks even more in Putin's pocket then ever all his talking points being regurgitated.

                                              awooga83 what did you expect from the guy who left out the victimized country and neighbouring countries from the peace talks? He hasn’t a fragment of empathy, and that’s why he moves like this. His supporters back home are cheering the strength and purpose. It’s easy to make progress when you do things alone.

                                                • JazzG

                                                • Post #1345
                                                • Edited

                                                awooga83 I think that's valid absolutely about funding. But my point is the way they are talking about engagement with Russia they are not acting as allies and the actions that are being attributed to them it's going to be very bad for Europe longer term. The trump administration seem to want to be better friends with Russia which is a massive thing Europe have to deal with which includes funding.

                                                End of the day there needs to be dialogue to end the war, there seems to be no appetite to either properly fund/support Ukraine by the Europeans and they don't seem to want the war to end either. The settlement is going to be pretty shit for Ukraine, they are losing the war and the losers usually end up getting a shit deal. It isn't right but that is what happens in war.

                                                The Europeans need to step up and make sure this deal for Ukraine is as good as it possibly can be. Ukraine have mistakenly thought the West would back them until the end, stories came out last year Russia were willing to sign a treaty and end the war but Boris Johnson told them to keep fighting and they'd keep backing them. They've been badly misled imo.

                                                awooga83 But it's not the asking for Europe to pull it's weight. It's actively working behind Europe and Ukraine's backs and seeming to give Russia everything it wants and trying to welcome them back into the fold with no consequences. The message to Putin or any other authoritarian leader is do what you want and there will ultimately be no consequences.

                                                That approach will threaten European security and Europe will have to step up which involves distancing ourselves from the US because it looks like they are more interested in siding and become good friends with Russia. Trump has done much more then say you need to pay your dues he's focusing on alining the US with Russia which I don't think any US admin has done. That's a very different prospect and is a threat to Europe. Putin is also a much smarter operator then trump so he's coming out of this a big winner if it plays out as it is being reported. The UK will need to align itself closer to Europe as one of the outcomes from these shifts in my view our own security will require it.

                                                Rightly or wrongly the US want Russia on their side. Maybe not even on their side but they want them out of China's orbit. There is talk that Cold War 2.0 has already started with China, this war has created a China, Iran and Russia alliance. The Americans want to break that alliance. That alliance and the weaponisation of the Dollar threatens to undermine the US dollar hegemony, those are the words of Janet Yellen. The current American regime will simply will not stand for that. This is why they are even talking of lifting sanctions off the Russians, they are basically saying leave the war, abandon any alliance with China/Iran and this is what you get in return. I think we are a long way from a deal yet but it is important that everyone talks.

                                                If European alliances end up getting burned I think that is a price they are willing to pay, mainly to protect their own empire. The Europeans have got themselves into such a mess they'll struggle to sort themselves out let alone do anything more. The Europeans still need the Americans and the current administration will take advantage of that. I think the Russians are a spent force as well, will be a long time before they can threaten any other country.

                                                I'm not offering an opinion on whether it is right or wrong but merely what I think is going on. I don't agree with a lot of the talk coming out by the Americans, they could and should handle this better. Trump does have this thing about strong leaders/dictators and I'm sure Putin will try to take advantage of that. Putin is a master manipulator and in Trump he'll find someone who may take him on his word....

                                                The UK doesn't need to align exclusively with anyone, we need to get our own fucking act in order and build up our depleted arm defences.