• Mirth

  • Post #1346
  • Edited

JazzG I'm not offering an opinion on whether it is right or wrong but merely what I think is going on.

Yeah, I share your view on where the world seems to be heading. To make things more obvious, Trump's US are still happy to antagonise China (who've been very quiet this past month): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/17/us-drops-wording-saying-it-does-not-support-taiwan-independence

In that context, Europe isn't really of strategic interest to the US anymore in a world centered around the Indo-Pacific.

JazzG The UK doesn't need to align exclusively with anyone, we need to get our own fucking act in order and build up our depleted arm defences.

I don't really agree with this though - in a world of hard power, there's nothing the UK (or any individual mid-tier nation) can do to compete with the US or China if neither are your allies. Even if the UK doubled their military spending, it would be irrelevant because there's still headwinds on the economy, lacks natural resources and overall demographic decline to seriously project power beyond Europe. The only path forward is alliance building.

        So now there's these "peace talks", and they are a grotesque spectacle.

        But even if Trump's ignorant, scattershot rhetoric is disgusting given his influence and the stakes, and the likes of Lavrov are smug and vile, a lot comes down to the real commitment of European NATO nations, and not just the newly recalcitrant US under Trump, to whatever security guarantees may be agreed for a new version of the Minsk agreements.

        sat in a global meeting this week. was interesting to see senior government representatives from all the major western countries condemn russia. all except one.

        • Segway

        • Post #1349

        Mirth Yep, the US is pushing Europe towards China as crazy as that sounds.

            • jones

            • Post #1350

            Segway Europe's leaders would rather see their countries revert to the Dark Ages than veer off of the course the US give them, let alone start following China.

              JazzG I think it is a massive strategic mistake, Putin's Russia are only ever on your side if you give them everything they want. They don't do compromise. If your aiming to make them allies then you will be giving into whatever demands they have. I don't disagree there has been a reprioritisation and that trump would sell all of Europe to Russia if he could that's very much his attitude. It's why Europe needs to accept that the US are not your friends with this current administration.

              On your point about dialogue that's fine but where has he condemned Russia. Everything is will Ukraine made this happen, blaming them for the invasion a decision that only Russia has responsibility for. Also the insulting idea that Ukraine should have done a deal giving up their territory to avoid the war. That policy has been known to be at successful through history at solving conflicts🙄

              If they think getting Russia on side stops an alliance with China that's proper deluded, Russia under Putin wants to act against Western interests and he will continue to play that game. If the US thinks they can deal with Putin they really haven't been paying attention. Also what will be China's calculation of launching a military invasion for territory they want. Stick the course the US will always give up in the end the will of authoritarian government will outlast the US and they will come for a deal for money eventually.

                • Gurgen

                • Post #1352

                Russia in its entire history of existence has never had allies. It has had vassals and enemies, that's it.

                  • Coombs

                  • Post #1354

                  Qwiss enemy's enemy I'd wager

                    • jones

                    • Post #1355

                    Gurgen what was the rest of Europe when Germany was waging war against everyone?

                        JazzG How long did Europe expect to keep getting subsidized security for? They've pissed their money away on other things, neglected their defence and now scrambling around panicking about it. Europe has been benefitting from a peace dividend and that time is now up.

                        That is not even the worst part of it. Europe/EU has bought oil, gas, coal, fertilizer etc from Russia for €2-4 hundred billions since just 2022. The russian war effort is completely dependent on his funding (and western currency). All because of an insanely naive energy policy...

                            Strategically, the US seems to have been happy to divide Europe and Russia since the short-lived attempt made by NATO to woo Russia ended in the late 00s.

                            Germany used to import around 5bn cubic metres of gas (as much as or more than €5–10bn in value I think …) per month from Russia until mid-late 2022, and the amount, whatever the real amount may be, is now stated as zero—and surely it must have collapsed with the loss of Nord Stream 1 and 2.

                            The "Ones and Tooze" podcast had an interesting episode discussing US energy security the other day. The US is now self-sufficient as far as energy goes due to onshore gas and renewable developments, notwithstanding a huge nett movement of gas and oil across its borders.

                            I would guess all mainstream parties in US politics, including "deep state" types, are very happy if the EU and Russia don't get on. Especially with Russia increasingly locked into the Chinese trajectory.

                            This makes the difference between Biden and Trump pretty much their wildly different agendas re: NATO.

                              Burnwinter yeah and the reality that the US under trump is not a European ally. In fact with their actions with Russia they are actually a threat to European security, so European leaders are going to have to get used to that and respond as necessary

                                  • jones

                                  • Post #1359

                                  awooga83 agree the US is definitely hostile to European security and energy interests - expensive American LNG vs cheap Russian gas, stoking wars in the Middle East knowing refugees will go to Europe as a result etc - but this has been the case since forever.

                                  Even discounting all the documented interfering in European elections since the 40s - just on a very basic level why would the US as the world's sole superpower allow Europe to become a bloc that could become its rival? Because Western values and rules-based order?

                                      • jones

                                      • Post #1360

                                      Burnwinter official imports are zero, notwithstanding fossil products sold by Russia to India or other third countries and then re-sold to Germany with a different provenance label and a premium slapped on it.

                                      To add to what you said US policy has always been to drive Russia and Europe and specifically Germany apart. If it were up to them Germany would have never been allowed to buy Russian gas for 30+ years, it was because of social democrat politicians who actually put German interests above American it did happen; all scholars agree the whole 'economic miracle' of rising from the ashes to a world economic power would have been impossible without cheap Russian gas.

                                        • Gurgen

                                        • Post #1361

                                        jones a short war time alliance out of necessity. Fell apart before the war even ended, and let's not forget the war started after Hitler and Stalin divided Eastern Europe between them.

                                            • Gurgen

                                            • Post #1362
                                            • Edited

                                            Qwiss It's not an alliance in my view, although they are not openly hostile to each other either. They increased trade because it was convenient to do so.

                                                Good objectives, but probably unrealistic.

                                                  • jones

                                                  • Post #1365

                                                  Gurgen you're one of the more cynical people around, you think there are any political alliances that are not borne out of necessity? you think the Germans actually like the French or the Polish or vice versa?