daredevil A biological male can have his genitals intact and have no hormone therapy undertaken, but if they identify as a woman they can use female changing rooms which is scandalous.

Said it already but I don't believe this is a real tendency or a thing that is happening. Perhaps it is and you have experienced it or someone you know has, I haven't.

I'm not saying it has never happened. But if we're going to argue the toss over the politics of the full social and legal integration of trans identity based on this pathological portrait, we need a clear picture of the scale and degree of the pathology.

If you're going to use words like "scandalous" it's probably on you to give us some clear numbers on cases in which trans women assaulted, harassed or discomforted cis women in shared bathrooms or changing rooms.

I believe these cases are at the margins, both in absolute and relative terms, compared to those cases in which cis men commit assault or harassment against women. But I could be wrong, and I'm open to that.

However, if I'm right, it'd be fair to ask: why the strenuous objections while men's violence against women remains prevalent? Because men propagating "bathroom intruder" discourse would then look like a displacement or projection of their anxieties about that situation.

    JazzG Possibly so, do you think people should accept their decline in living standards and just be told to suck it up?

    Of course not. The people should rise up and build a collective power capable of taking back control of their conditions.

    Trouble is what's happening now is the opposite of that. The "ordinary people" remain disaffected, ambivalent and without unity, and they remain weak.

    Whether we like Trump and Musk or not, we don't have control of them. We're enthralled by the show they put on because millions depend on their benevolence.

    We've already had one failed term of Trump and the failure of Brexit. Gotta say I'm confident we'll witness the disintegration of this lot plus the rise and fall of several populist variations across Europe before some start to figure out it's a dead end.

        And Trump and Elon aren’t the people. They aren’t leading some common man revolution. By the time they’re done, they’ll have just made it easier for those with capital to continue accumulating it.
        Trump got rid of US foreign corrupt practices rules. So US companies can come here to Africa and bribe freely. He’s handed over the government finances to the world’s richest man who owes his company’s very existence to the Obama government. He’s assembled the richest cabinet in history. It’s a large scale looting enterprise dressed up as something more noble.

          JazzG JD Vance with a very strongly worded speech in Munich

          Next president in the US.

              Claudius aye. populists on the left and right have railed against the influence of money in politics. here we have a situation where things have evolved to a level beyond the corrupt corporate lobbying environment, where big dollar donors are virtually inside the government making executive decisions over public money with no oversight. yet right wing 'populists' are cheerleading it, as are old school law and order conservatives. it only adds to the cult accusations. it feels like the right is on a revenge tour that they've been planning since Nixon was impeached, but never thought theyd have the opportunity to enact. all pretense of principle has gone in the bin, and they've gone completely off the deep end drunk with power.

                Claudius

                Calling spaceX subsidized is extremely stupid. As dumb as Trump's ideas on how imports are subsidies. SpaceX provide a (paid) service to the US which the US can not provide themselves.

                The Tesla part of it is more complex, as its subsidies are part of a larger political effort for a "green deal". Same applies to offshore wind, battery production, hydrogen production etc. I think these are stupid policies, as more general incentives-based policies (i.e. carbon tax) are far more efficient.

                    Kel Varnsen this company is only alive and worth as much as it is because it primarily serves the government which allows it deeply as much capital as it has to R&D. If this was a private sector only endeavour, all funding models would fail. There’s too much time and risk. But government support has allowed it to build a $250bn valuation.
                    Of course, he earned it. Same with Tesla. We should never look past the fact that he had the boldness and appetite to push these businesses when nobody else would. But in both instances, patient capital from government enabled it. It’s not some heroic effort on his own.

                      JazzG This is what happens when the so called normal politicians let people down, they look elsewhere.

                      You mean establishment politicians. And you'd be right, except many had the opportunity to vote for such kinds of politicians and failed to do so.

                      Like, why vote for Farage when you could've gone for say, Corbin's group or Lib Dems? There's only one real answer to that.

                          • JazzG

                          • Post #1318

                          Fucking hell man, this woman really needs to come up with a better example than that.

                          Kel Varnsen Next president in the US.

                          Was really impressed when I saw him on Joe Rogan before the election. I don't agree with everything he says but he does articulate himself well, the opposite of Trump in that respect lol.

                          Burnwinter We've already had one failed term of Trump and the failure of Brexit. Gotta say I'm confident we'll witness the disintegration of this lot plus the rise and fall of several populist variations across Europe before some start to figure out it's a dead end.

                          As someone who was against Brexit at the time I wouldn't class it as a failure yet. Too early to say anything yet imo. These things need to be judged over a much longer period, it is still very early days. Looking at the EU right now and the way it is in decline getting out probably one the best things that could happen to the UK. Now getting out is the first step but we've then had a complete and utter idiots in charge since then. I think that was my main worry, that we'd leave which was good but then have idiots in charge who would not have a clue about how to get the best out of it!

                          The main argument against Brexit seems to be economic but when you look at the EU, this logic that we'd be doing much better if we had remained to me doesn't seem sound to me, not like the EU is booming while we are in decline. We are all in decline lol. We've also had a pandemic which has hit us really hard, supply chains got fucked, we gave out loads of money, printed loads of money and then had the Russia/Ukraine war, the combination of all these things sent inflation through the roof and that is the main reason the UK feels poorer rather than leaving the EU imo.

                          For me the main reason for leaving the EU is we need to be able to hold or politicians to account, we can't do that with the EU. Here the voters were really unhappy with the Conservatives and punished them at the elections, all signs point toward Labour getting similar treatment next time round. When the EU is shaping a lot of your policy you can't really hold EU officials to account. Though many supported Brexit due to immigration and I get that, we need immigration but clearly people felt too many people were coming. After Brexit seems like we got even more immigration than before which basically sunk the Tories and has for some made them near unelectable right now.

                          banduan You mean establishment politicians. And you'd be right, except many had the opportunity to vote for such kinds of politicians and failed to do so.

                          Like, why vote for Farage when you could've gone for say, Corbin's group or Lib Dems? There's only one real answer to that.

                          Corbyn was simply a very disliked politician, a lot of people on the left online love him but in the real world I've never come across anyone who likes him. My wife's family are from the midlands and die hard Labour voters and they couldn't stand him. I'm sure someone will rush here to tell us that it was the smears from the media, I think it is more he was just an unlikeable man with shit policies....As for Lib Dems, they seem to have become the party for the overly liberal Tories lol. Farage right now is selling himself as the non-establishment figure and nobody else is occupying that space. The Tories kept him away and that has worked in his favour, all their failures are not sticking to him and he can batter them on that.

                                  JazzG As someone who was against Brexit at the time I wouldn't class it as a failure yet. Too early to say anything yet imo. These things need to be judged over a much longer period, it is still very early days.

                                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

                                  Everyone who claims to be serious about any of the related questions seems to agree it's been a fuckup economically.

                                  Jury is arguably out on whether it's resulted in a long term reduced dependence on nett migration, but it hasn't reduced nett migration to date, which was the implicit or explicit promise of the Leave campaign.

                                  So that'd make it a failure on all fronts thus far.

                                  I am no great fan of the EU though … ever since the eurozone debt crisis it's failed to make the fiscal reforms that would give it credibility as an economic federation.

                                  The EU member nations who get structural economic benefits from its existence (most notably Germany) would have had to agree to a system of direct fiscal transfers (probably via a reformed ECB) to subsidise the others.

                                  They have refused this, which is one reason EU politics have become so perennially fucked up. Makes Maastricht look like an elaborate risk and debt long con in retrospect.

                                  I agree too that the EU is dangerously undemocratic. The way in which Greek and Italian sovereignty was crushed by the Eurogroup during the debt crisis was far more worrying than most of the stuff people complain about though.

                                      • JazzG

                                      • Post #1320

                                      Oh dear....

                                      Burnwinter Everyone who claims to be serious about any of the related questions seems to agree it's been a fuckup economically.

                                      I saw a paper recently which suggest otherwise, I'll try and dig it up for you. Short term there will be pain but once we start trading more freely with others over a longer term the benefits could outweigh staying, again that depends on political leadership which we are sorely lacking!

                                      Burnwinter I agree too that the EU is dangerously undemocratic. The way in which Greek and Italian sovereignty was crushed by the Eurogroup during the debt crisis was far more worrying than most of the stuff people complain about though.

                                      I agree. I wonder if elections in Germany and France don't go as the mainstream parties hope what happens going forward with the EU?

                                            JazzG I saw a paper recently which suggest otherwise, I'll try and dig it up for you. Short term there will be pain but once we start trading more freely with others over a longer term the benefits could outweigh staying, again that depends on political leadership which we are sorely lacking!

                                            I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

                                                • Tam

                                                • Post #1322

                                                JazzG As someone who was against Brexit at the time I wouldn't class it as a failure yet. Too early to say anything yet imo. These things need to be judged over a much longer period, it is still very early days. Looking at the EU right now and the way it is in decline getting out probably one the best things that could happen to the UK. Now getting out is the first step but we've then had a complete and utter idiots in charge since then. I think that was my main worry, that we'd leave which was good but then have idiots in charge who would not have a clue about how to get the best out of it!

                                                Do you even know where you stand? Against Brexit…buts it’s not a failure…too early to say…give it time…best thing that could have happened to UK…we’d leave which was good…but have idiots in charge…who wouldn’t know how to get the best out of it. For someone against it you seem fairly pro Brexit there.

                                                The problem with the view that we have idiots in charge, is it overlooks how idiotic the general populace is. They’re the ones who see idiots, vote for them, then expect better. Who are the real idiots? Do you honestly believe we just needed better people controlling it? If so, then who? If you can’t name anyone then I can’t see how you stand beside your point, as it could never be or have been realistic.

                                                    • Tam

                                                    • Post #1323
                                                    • Edited

                                                    JazzG The main argument against Brexit seems to be economic but when you look at the EU, this logic that we'd be doing much better if we had remained to me doesn't seem sound to me, not like the EU is booming while we are in decline. We are all in decline lol. We've also had a pandemic which has hit us really hard, supply chains got fucked, we gave out loads of money, printed loads of money and then had the Russia/Ukraine war, the combination of all these things sent inflation through the roof and that is the main reason the UK feels poorer rather than leaving the EU imo.

                                                    This is just false, it’s not that we’d be doing much better, it’s more that we wouldn’t be doing as bad. Brexit is a contributory and compounding factor of these issues. The amount of red tape, cost and difficulty Brexit has added in importing and exporting goods is devastating to many businesses. Some of the bigger ones can weather it better, smaller and medium ones have suffered and continue to suffer. I can’t see a position where hypothetical long term gain, which I’m almost certain we will not see, will come. We’ll inevitably converge more with Europe as time goes on, and Brexit will be regarded in the history books as one of the most incompetent suicide attempts known to man, undertaken by a population who should be monitored with safety scissors never mind a pen they can vote with.

                                                        • JazzG

                                                        • Post #1324
                                                        • Edited

                                                        Tam Do you even know where you stand? Against Brexit…buts it’s not a failure…too early to say…give it time…best thing that could have happened to UK…we’d leave which was good…but have idiots in charge…who wouldn’t know how to get the best out of it. For someone against it you seem fairly pro Brexit there.

                                                        "As someone who was against Brexit at the time". Read that again....

                                                        Tam The problem with the view that we have idiots in charge, is it overlooks how idiotic the general populace is.

                                                        Clearly everyone isn't as well informed as you...

                                                        Tam We’ll inevitably converge more with Europe as time goes on, and Brexit will be regarded in the history books as one of the most incompetent suicide attempts known to man, undertaken by a population who should be monitored with safety scissors never mind a pen they can vote with.

                                                        There you go again, clearly everyone is just fucking stupid unlike you and your crystal ball which sees everything.

                                                        • Tam replied to this.

                                                                • Tam

                                                                • Post #1325
                                                                • Edited

                                                                JazzG I didn’t need to be well informed, just opened minded. And I also didn’t need a crystal ball, the dangers were obvious and well covered. We’ve seen more of them than the benefits we were lied to about, so how you’ve got from being against Brexit to now thinking it was a good thing is baffling to me.

                                                                You haven’t answered any of my questions or the actual points of substance I made though.

                                                                  • Mirth

                                                                  • Post #1326

                                                                  The general performance of the UK economy has more or less been in line with France/Italy and ahead of Germany but well behind the United States. i.e. fairly middling - and where it's been since 2008.

                                                                  There's undoubtedly been sectors that have been impacted but most of the UK economy is service oriented so circumvented the bulk of the damage in aggregate.

                                                                  Composition of trade in the UK and the rest of the G7
                                                                  Within UK trade, there has been a significant and growing divergence between the performance of goods and services since the pandemic (Chart G).

                                                                  Growth in UK goods trade (exports plus imports) has fallen well behind the rest of the G7. At the end of 2023, UK goods trade was around 10 per cent below 2019 levels, while it was around 5 higher on average for the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

                                                                  Meanwhile, UK services trade growth has been the strongest in the G7. It reached around 12 per cent above 2019 levels at the end of 2023, versus around 9 per cent above in the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

                                                                  In the long term, the trends are about the same as well: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/article/uk-economy-will-grow-more-quickly-than-france-in-coming-years-dbr8ltfch

                                                                  However, the wider point is that this level of growth was achievable within the EU as well and would have saved unnecessary hardship to individuals and saved political capital for real issues.

                                                                  I don't particularly see how being out of the EU changes this growth trajectory as all major European players are facing the same headwinds. I also think Jazz's point on 'free trade' - a euphemism at the best of times - is wildly optimistic when the the world is increasing protectionist.

                                                                  I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

                                                                    • JazzG

                                                                    • Post #1327

                                                                    awooga83 I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

                                                                    To me the EU is a bloc in serious decline and the way the politics are going in countries like Germany and France I wouldn't be surprised if there are further problems down the road for them. We saw it with the vaccine roll out how we were able to get out of the blocks a lot quicker and more recently with their policies towards AI. They are strangling themselves in red tape, Mario Draghi talked about this recently saying the EU is doing more harm to itself than any potential American tariffs.

                                                                    Any trade deal with the US doesn't have to be comprehensive, can be sector by sector.

                                                                      • JazzG

                                                                      • Post #1328

                                                                      Mirth I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

                                                                      I think that dynamic will take shape in the next year or so, either we go closer to the EU or we align with the US. From the sounds of things the US are very open to that and likewise as are the EU. We can't have both though.

                                                                          • Mirth

                                                                          • Post #1329

                                                                          JazzG we used to, though. Being a member of the EU and having close ties with the US was pretty much the whole jam.

                                                                            • Mirth

                                                                            • Post #1330

                                                                            Anyway, Trump thinks VAT should be considered tariffs. They're not.

                                                                            @JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

                                                                              • Gurgen

                                                                              • Post #1331
                                                                              • Edited

                                                                              His grasp of basic economic concepts is Khomeini level.

                                                                                • JazzG

                                                                                • Post #1332
                                                                                • Edited

                                                                                Mirth @JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

                                                                                I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it. I think the American's are worried about China, I think they are trying to force manufacturing back into the US, that is my theory anyway.

                                                                                I also think he is one the biggest bluffers going so everything he says needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Everything is a negotiation and whatever past customs there were make little to no difference to him. He'll use these tariffs as a weapon to get what he wants. Even this Russia/Ukraine war, I do wonder if he might be willing to be more flexible if a deal is done on Greenland. This is just me throwing things out there and thinking out loud!

                                                                                I'm not saying this is the right way to do things but that is how he operates.

                                                                                    Gurgen he has no clue. he's used to bullying people. remember in real estate once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space. you can bully cities because they are desperate for prime real estate investment. and you can bully the banks once they've given you massive loans because it's hard to move property. so you can have buildings where you just don't pay the mortgage.
                                                                                    he is taking this advantage he has built up in real estate and trying to apply it in international affairs, where the fall back options are very different.

                                                                                        JazzG I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it.

                                                                                        But this isn't about agreeing with his stance or reasoning, it's about him literally being factually wrong about VAT vs. tariffs. He's talking with certainty about things he clearly doesn't understand.

                                                                                            Claudius once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space

                                                                                            Trump never knew any other position. His old man was a colour-barred apartment slumlord before he ever even reached majority.

                                                                                              Yeah this the main point with his money has come influence and people accepting whatever he says. But it's not competence and particularly in relation to global affairs he has regularly demonstrated he doesn't understand the bigger strategic issues going into many of the complexities of global relations. Or even his comments during the COVID pandemic, it's not a problem to not understand these issues but he has such a lack of humility he cannot refrain from commenting and claiming he knows the answer.

                                                                                              It's the absurdity of this era we are in where people are fed up with how things have developed particularly in the west and the anti establishment zeitgeist which I understand and the want to change things. But if you want that you have to be honest about the issues at play. If you feel like people are taking your jobs well the discussion you might need to have is about your economic system which works to find the cheapest labour. When people back Brexit they blame the EU for migration issues that actually are within the UK's power and again it's related to your economy and the failure was UK politicians but nobody wants to acknowledge that.

                                                                                              Changing things is difficult and requires a multitude of expertise but the populist reaction has been we don't need that we can bring a charismatic idiot in and it'll be fine. Then your surprised that things don't improve? You've appointed this guy who has regularly shown he lacks the understanding and competency to handle the issues or grasp the problem what do you think is going to get better.

                                                                                              The tragedy is the very group's who have been left behind will be those that suffer the most when they eventually realise these frauds are no different and don't have any of the answers people will feel even more let down and angry and it further fuels the feeling of betrayal and leaves people open to even worse radicalisation.

                                                                                              • JazzG

                                                                                              • Post #1338

                                                                                              Germany being attacked from the left and right about free speech!

                                                                                                JazzG I think the current admin might have already put strain on European relations including a Vance himself so a bit rich to be throwing stones.

                                                                                                The only good thing is it's a big wake up call to Europe the current US administration are not reliable allies anymore and they are much more comfortable cosying up to the likes of Putin which is going to be in conflict with Europe's security interests in future so they will need to remove as much reliance as possible on them.

                                                                                                    • JazzG

                                                                                                    • Post #1340

                                                                                                    awooga83 The only good thing is it's a big wake up call to Europe the current US administration are not reliable allies anymore

                                                                                                    How long did Europe expect to keep getting subsidized security for? They've pissed their money away on other things, neglected their defence and now scrambling around panicking about it. Europe has been benefitting from a peace dividend and that time is now up.

                                                                                                    The US are acting like dicks about this but this is on Europe, the US did this as long as it suited their needs and now their focus is elsewhere. Many American presidents since the World War have been telling Europe to get serious about their defence spending, Trump is taking a much more forceful approach to it

                                                                                                        JazzG I think that's valid absolutely about funding. But my point is the way they are talking about engagement with Russia they are not acting as allies and the actions that are being attributed to them it's going to be very bad for Europe longer term. The trump administration seem to want to be better friends with Russia which is a massive thing Europe have to deal with which includes funding.

                                                                                                        But it's not the asking for Europe to pull it's weight. It's actively working behind Europe and Ukraine's backs and seeming to give Russia everything it wants and trying to welcome them back into the fold with no consequences. The message to Putin or any other authoritarian leader is do what you want and there will ultimately be no consequences.

                                                                                                        That approach will threaten European security and Europe will have to step up which involves distancing ourselves from the US because it looks like they are more interested in siding and become good friends with Russia. Trump has done much more then say you need to pay your dues he's focusing on alining the US with Russia which I don't think any US admin has done. That's a very different prospect and is a threat to Europe. Putin is also a much smarter operator then trump so he's coming out of this a big winner if it plays out as it is being reported. The UK will need to align itself closer to Europe as one of the outcomes from these shifts in my view our own security will require it.

                                                                                                            If there was any doubt about Trump's allegiances his latest comments about Ukraine are utterly disgraceful. People are dying and the war should never have started and really it's because Ukraine didn't do a deal to give their country away. No mention of Putin or Russia having any blame for actually starting the war or pressuring them because he's best buds with Putin. The guy is a total clown but worse then that as president he now had the power to try to force these positions on other countries. He has no honour or sense of strategical consideration. This is the person who is going to save democracy though🙄

                                                                                                            He just looks even more in Putin's pocket then ever all his talking points being regurgitated.

                                                                                                              awooga83 what did you expect from the guy who left out the victimized country and neighbouring countries from the peace talks? He hasn’t a fragment of empathy, and that’s why he moves like this. His supporters back home are cheering the strength and purpose. It’s easy to make progress when you do things alone.

                                                                                                                • JazzG

                                                                                                                • Post #1345
                                                                                                                • Edited

                                                                                                                awooga83 I think that's valid absolutely about funding. But my point is the way they are talking about engagement with Russia they are not acting as allies and the actions that are being attributed to them it's going to be very bad for Europe longer term. The trump administration seem to want to be better friends with Russia which is a massive thing Europe have to deal with which includes funding.

                                                                                                                End of the day there needs to be dialogue to end the war, there seems to be no appetite to either properly fund/support Ukraine by the Europeans and they don't seem to want the war to end either. The settlement is going to be pretty shit for Ukraine, they are losing the war and the losers usually end up getting a shit deal. It isn't right but that is what happens in war.

                                                                                                                The Europeans need to step up and make sure this deal for Ukraine is as good as it possibly can be. Ukraine have mistakenly thought the West would back them until the end, stories came out last year Russia were willing to sign a treaty and end the war but Boris Johnson told them to keep fighting and they'd keep backing them. They've been badly misled imo.

                                                                                                                awooga83 But it's not the asking for Europe to pull it's weight. It's actively working behind Europe and Ukraine's backs and seeming to give Russia everything it wants and trying to welcome them back into the fold with no consequences. The message to Putin or any other authoritarian leader is do what you want and there will ultimately be no consequences.

                                                                                                                That approach will threaten European security and Europe will have to step up which involves distancing ourselves from the US because it looks like they are more interested in siding and become good friends with Russia. Trump has done much more then say you need to pay your dues he's focusing on alining the US with Russia which I don't think any US admin has done. That's a very different prospect and is a threat to Europe. Putin is also a much smarter operator then trump so he's coming out of this a big winner if it plays out as it is being reported. The UK will need to align itself closer to Europe as one of the outcomes from these shifts in my view our own security will require it.

                                                                                                                Rightly or wrongly the US want Russia on their side. Maybe not even on their side but they want them out of China's orbit. There is talk that Cold War 2.0 has already started with China, this war has created a China, Iran and Russia alliance. The Americans want to break that alliance. That alliance and the weaponisation of the Dollar threatens to undermine the US dollar hegemony, those are the words of Janet Yellen. The current American regime will simply will not stand for that. This is why they are even talking of lifting sanctions off the Russians, they are basically saying leave the war, abandon any alliance with China/Iran and this is what you get in return. I think we are a long way from a deal yet but it is important that everyone talks.

                                                                                                                If European alliances end up getting burned I think that is a price they are willing to pay, mainly to protect their own empire. The Europeans have got themselves into such a mess they'll struggle to sort themselves out let alone do anything more. The Europeans still need the Americans and the current administration will take advantage of that. I think the Russians are a spent force as well, will be a long time before they can threaten any other country.

                                                                                                                I'm not offering an opinion on whether it is right or wrong but merely what I think is going on. I don't agree with a lot of the talk coming out by the Americans, they could and should handle this better. Trump does have this thing about strong leaders/dictators and I'm sure Putin will try to take advantage of that. Putin is a master manipulator and in Trump he'll find someone who may take him on his word....

                                                                                                                The UK doesn't need to align exclusively with anyone, we need to get our own fucking act in order and build up our depleted arm defences.

                                                                                                                      • Mirth

                                                                                                                      • Post #1346
                                                                                                                      • Edited

                                                                                                                      JazzG I'm not offering an opinion on whether it is right or wrong but merely what I think is going on.

                                                                                                                      Yeah, I share your view on where the world seems to be heading. To make things more obvious, Trump's US are still happy to antagonise China (who've been very quiet this past month): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/17/us-drops-wording-saying-it-does-not-support-taiwan-independence

                                                                                                                      In that context, Europe isn't really of strategic interest to the US anymore in a world centered around the Indo-Pacific.

                                                                                                                      JazzG The UK doesn't need to align exclusively with anyone, we need to get our own fucking act in order and build up our depleted arm defences.

                                                                                                                      I don't really agree with this though - in a world of hard power, there's nothing the UK (or any individual mid-tier nation) can do to compete with the US or China if neither are your allies. Even if the UK doubled their military spending, it would be irrelevant because there's still headwinds on the economy, lacks natural resources and overall demographic decline to seriously project power beyond Europe. The only path forward is alliance building.

                                                                                                                            So now there's these "peace talks", and they are a grotesque spectacle.

                                                                                                                            But even if Trump's ignorant, scattershot rhetoric is disgusting given his influence and the stakes, and the likes of Lavrov are smug and vile, a lot comes down to the real commitment of European NATO nations, and not just the newly recalcitrant US under Trump, to whatever security guarantees may be agreed for a new version of the Minsk agreements.