• JazzG

  • Post #1320

Oh dear....

Burnwinter Everyone who claims to be serious about any of the related questions seems to agree it's been a fuckup economically.

I saw a paper recently which suggest otherwise, I'll try and dig it up for you. Short term there will be pain but once we start trading more freely with others over a longer term the benefits could outweigh staying, again that depends on political leadership which we are sorely lacking!

Burnwinter I agree too that the EU is dangerously undemocratic. The way in which Greek and Italian sovereignty was crushed by the Eurogroup during the debt crisis was far more worrying than most of the stuff people complain about though.

I agree. I wonder if elections in Germany and France don't go as the mainstream parties hope what happens going forward with the EU?

        JazzG I saw a paper recently which suggest otherwise, I'll try and dig it up for you. Short term there will be pain but once we start trading more freely with others over a longer term the benefits could outweigh staying, again that depends on political leadership which we are sorely lacking!

        I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

            • Tam

            • Post #1322

            JazzG As someone who was against Brexit at the time I wouldn't class it as a failure yet. Too early to say anything yet imo. These things need to be judged over a much longer period, it is still very early days. Looking at the EU right now and the way it is in decline getting out probably one the best things that could happen to the UK. Now getting out is the first step but we've then had a complete and utter idiots in charge since then. I think that was my main worry, that we'd leave which was good but then have idiots in charge who would not have a clue about how to get the best out of it!

            Do you even know where you stand? Against Brexit…buts it’s not a failure…too early to say…give it time…best thing that could have happened to UK…we’d leave which was good…but have idiots in charge…who wouldn’t know how to get the best out of it. For someone against it you seem fairly pro Brexit there.

            The problem with the view that we have idiots in charge, is it overlooks how idiotic the general populace is. They’re the ones who see idiots, vote for them, then expect better. Who are the real idiots? Do you honestly believe we just needed better people controlling it? If so, then who? If you can’t name anyone then I can’t see how you stand beside your point, as it could never be or have been realistic.

                • Tam

                • Post #1323
                • Edited

                JazzG The main argument against Brexit seems to be economic but when you look at the EU, this logic that we'd be doing much better if we had remained to me doesn't seem sound to me, not like the EU is booming while we are in decline. We are all in decline lol. We've also had a pandemic which has hit us really hard, supply chains got fucked, we gave out loads of money, printed loads of money and then had the Russia/Ukraine war, the combination of all these things sent inflation through the roof and that is the main reason the UK feels poorer rather than leaving the EU imo.

                This is just false, it’s not that we’d be doing much better, it’s more that we wouldn’t be doing as bad. Brexit is a contributory and compounding factor of these issues. The amount of red tape, cost and difficulty Brexit has added in importing and exporting goods is devastating to many businesses. Some of the bigger ones can weather it better, smaller and medium ones have suffered and continue to suffer. I can’t see a position where hypothetical long term gain, which I’m almost certain we will not see, will come. We’ll inevitably converge more with Europe as time goes on, and Brexit will be regarded in the history books as one of the most incompetent suicide attempts known to man, undertaken by a population who should be monitored with safety scissors never mind a pen they can vote with.

                    • JazzG

                    • Post #1324
                    • Edited

                    Tam Do you even know where you stand? Against Brexit…buts it’s not a failure…too early to say…give it time…best thing that could have happened to UK…we’d leave which was good…but have idiots in charge…who wouldn’t know how to get the best out of it. For someone against it you seem fairly pro Brexit there.

                    "As someone who was against Brexit at the time". Read that again....

                    Tam The problem with the view that we have idiots in charge, is it overlooks how idiotic the general populace is.

                    Clearly everyone isn't as well informed as you...

                    Tam We’ll inevitably converge more with Europe as time goes on, and Brexit will be regarded in the history books as one of the most incompetent suicide attempts known to man, undertaken by a population who should be monitored with safety scissors never mind a pen they can vote with.

                    There you go again, clearly everyone is just fucking stupid unlike you and your crystal ball which sees everything.

                    • Tam replied to this.

                            • Tam

                            • Post #1325
                            • Edited

                            JazzG I didn’t need to be well informed, just opened minded. And I also didn’t need a crystal ball, the dangers were obvious and well covered. We’ve seen more of them than the benefits we were lied to about, so how you’ve got from being against Brexit to now thinking it was a good thing is baffling to me.

                            You haven’t answered any of my questions or the actual points of substance I made though.

                              • Mirth

                              • Post #1326

                              The general performance of the UK economy has more or less been in line with France/Italy and ahead of Germany but well behind the United States. i.e. fairly middling - and where it's been since 2008.

                              There's undoubtedly been sectors that have been impacted but most of the UK economy is service oriented so circumvented the bulk of the damage in aggregate.

                              Composition of trade in the UK and the rest of the G7
                              Within UK trade, there has been a significant and growing divergence between the performance of goods and services since the pandemic (Chart G).

                              Growth in UK goods trade (exports plus imports) has fallen well behind the rest of the G7. At the end of 2023, UK goods trade was around 10 per cent below 2019 levels, while it was around 5 higher on average for the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

                              Meanwhile, UK services trade growth has been the strongest in the G7. It reached around 12 per cent above 2019 levels at the end of 2023, versus around 9 per cent above in the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

                              In the long term, the trends are about the same as well: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/article/uk-economy-will-grow-more-quickly-than-france-in-coming-years-dbr8ltfch

                              However, the wider point is that this level of growth was achievable within the EU as well and would have saved unnecessary hardship to individuals and saved political capital for real issues.

                              I don't particularly see how being out of the EU changes this growth trajectory as all major European players are facing the same headwinds. I also think Jazz's point on 'free trade' - a euphemism at the best of times - is wildly optimistic when the the world is increasing protectionist.

                              I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

                                • JazzG

                                • Post #1327

                                awooga83 I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

                                To me the EU is a bloc in serious decline and the way the politics are going in countries like Germany and France I wouldn't be surprised if there are further problems down the road for them. We saw it with the vaccine roll out how we were able to get out of the blocks a lot quicker and more recently with their policies towards AI. They are strangling themselves in red tape, Mario Draghi talked about this recently saying the EU is doing more harm to itself than any potential American tariffs.

                                Any trade deal with the US doesn't have to be comprehensive, can be sector by sector.

                                  • JazzG

                                  • Post #1328

                                  Mirth I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

                                  I think that dynamic will take shape in the next year or so, either we go closer to the EU or we align with the US. From the sounds of things the US are very open to that and likewise as are the EU. We can't have both though.

                                      • Mirth

                                      • Post #1329

                                      JazzG we used to, though. Being a member of the EU and having close ties with the US was pretty much the whole jam.

                                        • Mirth

                                        • Post #1330

                                        Anyway, Trump thinks VAT should be considered tariffs. They're not.

                                        @JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

                                          • Gurgen

                                          • Post #1331
                                          • Edited

                                          His grasp of basic economic concepts is Khomeini level.

                                            • JazzG

                                            • Post #1332
                                            • Edited

                                            Mirth @JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

                                            I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it. I think the American's are worried about China, I think they are trying to force manufacturing back into the US, that is my theory anyway.

                                            I also think he is one the biggest bluffers going so everything he says needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Everything is a negotiation and whatever past customs there were make little to no difference to him. He'll use these tariffs as a weapon to get what he wants. Even this Russia/Ukraine war, I do wonder if he might be willing to be more flexible if a deal is done on Greenland. This is just me throwing things out there and thinking out loud!

                                            I'm not saying this is the right way to do things but that is how he operates.

                                                Gurgen he has no clue. he's used to bullying people. remember in real estate once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space. you can bully cities because they are desperate for prime real estate investment. and you can bully the banks once they've given you massive loans because it's hard to move property. so you can have buildings where you just don't pay the mortgage.
                                                he is taking this advantage he has built up in real estate and trying to apply it in international affairs, where the fall back options are very different.

                                                    JazzG I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it.

                                                    But this isn't about agreeing with his stance or reasoning, it's about him literally being factually wrong about VAT vs. tariffs. He's talking with certainty about things he clearly doesn't understand.

                                                        Claudius once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space

                                                        Trump never knew any other position. His old man was a colour-barred apartment slumlord before he ever even reached majority.

                                                          Yeah this the main point with his money has come influence and people accepting whatever he says. But it's not competence and particularly in relation to global affairs he has regularly demonstrated he doesn't understand the bigger strategic issues going into many of the complexities of global relations. Or even his comments during the COVID pandemic, it's not a problem to not understand these issues but he has such a lack of humility he cannot refrain from commenting and claiming he knows the answer.

                                                          It's the absurdity of this era we are in where people are fed up with how things have developed particularly in the west and the anti establishment zeitgeist which I understand and the want to change things. But if you want that you have to be honest about the issues at play. If you feel like people are taking your jobs well the discussion you might need to have is about your economic system which works to find the cheapest labour. When people back Brexit they blame the EU for migration issues that actually are within the UK's power and again it's related to your economy and the failure was UK politicians but nobody wants to acknowledge that.

                                                          Changing things is difficult and requires a multitude of expertise but the populist reaction has been we don't need that we can bring a charismatic idiot in and it'll be fine. Then your surprised that things don't improve? You've appointed this guy who has regularly shown he lacks the understanding and competency to handle the issues or grasp the problem what do you think is going to get better.

                                                          The tragedy is the very group's who have been left behind will be those that suffer the most when they eventually realise these frauds are no different and don't have any of the answers people will feel even more let down and angry and it further fuels the feeling of betrayal and leaves people open to even worse radicalisation.

                                                          • JazzG

                                                          • Post #1338

                                                          Germany being attacked from the left and right about free speech!

                                                            JazzG I think the current admin might have already put strain on European relations including a Vance himself so a bit rich to be throwing stones.

                                                            The only good thing is it's a big wake up call to Europe the current US administration are not reliable allies anymore and they are much more comfortable cosying up to the likes of Putin which is going to be in conflict with Europe's security interests in future so they will need to remove as much reliance as possible on them.