JazzG As someone who was against Brexit at the time I wouldn't class it as a failure yet. Too early to say anything yet imo. These things need to be judged over a much longer period, it is still very early days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

Everyone who claims to be serious about any of the related questions seems to agree it's been a fuckup economically.

Jury is arguably out on whether it's resulted in a long term reduced dependence on nett migration, but it hasn't reduced nett migration to date, which was the implicit or explicit promise of the Leave campaign.

So that'd make it a failure on all fronts thus far.

I am no great fan of the EU though … ever since the eurozone debt crisis it's failed to make the fiscal reforms that would give it credibility as an economic federation.

The EU member nations who get structural economic benefits from its existence (most notably Germany) would have had to agree to a system of direct fiscal transfers (probably via a reformed ECB) to subsidise the others.

They have refused this, which is one reason EU politics have become so perennially fucked up. Makes Maastricht look like an elaborate risk and debt long con in retrospect.

I agree too that the EU is dangerously undemocratic. The way in which Greek and Italian sovereignty was crushed by the Eurogroup during the debt crisis was far more worrying than most of the stuff people complain about though.

Oh dear....

Burnwinter Everyone who claims to be serious about any of the related questions seems to agree it's been a fuckup economically.

I saw a paper recently which suggest otherwise, I'll try and dig it up for you. Short term there will be pain but once we start trading more freely with others over a longer term the benefits could outweigh staying, again that depends on political leadership which we are sorely lacking!

Burnwinter I agree too that the EU is dangerously undemocratic. The way in which Greek and Italian sovereignty was crushed by the Eurogroup during the debt crisis was far more worrying than most of the stuff people complain about though.

I agree. I wonder if elections in Germany and France don't go as the mainstream parties hope what happens going forward with the EU?

JazzG I saw a paper recently which suggest otherwise, I'll try and dig it up for you. Short term there will be pain but once we start trading more freely with others over a longer term the benefits could outweigh staying, again that depends on political leadership which we are sorely lacking!

I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

JazzG As someone who was against Brexit at the time I wouldn't class it as a failure yet. Too early to say anything yet imo. These things need to be judged over a much longer period, it is still very early days. Looking at the EU right now and the way it is in decline getting out probably one the best things that could happen to the UK. Now getting out is the first step but we've then had a complete and utter idiots in charge since then. I think that was my main worry, that we'd leave which was good but then have idiots in charge who would not have a clue about how to get the best out of it!

Do you even know where you stand? Against Brexit…buts it’s not a failure…too early to say…give it time…best thing that could have happened to UK…we’d leave which was good…but have idiots in charge…who wouldn’t know how to get the best out of it. For someone against it you seem fairly pro Brexit there.

The problem with the view that we have idiots in charge, is it overlooks how idiotic the general populace is. They’re the ones who see idiots, vote for them, then expect better. Who are the real idiots? Do you honestly believe we just needed better people controlling it? If so, then who? If you can’t name anyone then I can’t see how you stand beside your point, as it could never be or have been realistic.

The general performance of the UK economy has more or less been in line with France/Italy and ahead of Germany but well behind the United States. i.e. fairly middling - and where it's been since 2008.

There's undoubtedly been sectors that have been impacted but most of the UK economy is service oriented so circumvented the bulk of the damage in aggregate.

Composition of trade in the UK and the rest of the G7
Within UK trade, there has been a significant and growing divergence between the performance of goods and services since the pandemic (Chart G).

Growth in UK goods trade (exports plus imports) has fallen well behind the rest of the G7. At the end of 2023, UK goods trade was around 10 per cent below 2019 levels, while it was around 5 higher on average for the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, UK services trade growth has been the strongest in the G7. It reached around 12 per cent above 2019 levels at the end of 2023, versus around 9 per cent above in the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.

• ONS: https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brexit-trade-forecast-assumptions-performing/

In the long term, the trends are about the same as well: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/article/uk-economy-will-grow-more-quickly-than-france-in-coming-years-dbr8ltfch

However, the wider point is that this level of growth was achievable within the EU as well and would have saved unnecessary hardship to individuals and saved political capital for real issues.

I don't particularly see how being out of the EU changes this growth trajectory as all major European players are facing the same headwinds. I also think Jazz's point on 'free trade' - a euphemism at the best of times - is wildly optimistic when the the world is increasing protectionist.

I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

awooga83 I think there is always a presumption that the UK will get a good deal but every country will ask for something from us that we won't want to give naturally whether it's the US and allowing their farm produce in so they can outcompete UK farmers or some other kinds of concession there will be a cost and in an increasingly divided world standing alone is not a great negotiating position. Brexit has certainly not made anything better as it stands and I think economically it is currently worse. The whole point of it was to improve the UK's lot but it's certainly failed at that right now.

To me the EU is a bloc in serious decline and the way the politics are going in countries like Germany and France I wouldn't be surprised if there are further problems down the road for them. We saw it with the vaccine roll out how we were able to get out of the blocks a lot quicker and more recently with their policies towards AI. They are strangling themselves in red tape, Mario Draghi talked about this recently saying the EU is doing more harm to itself than any potential American tariffs.

Any trade deal with the US doesn't have to be comprehensive, can be sector by sector.

Mirth I dare say more than economic, the political damage is more significant - the UK is now far less integrated with its neighbours or with their primarily ally, the US at a time when the world is changing rapidly.

I think that dynamic will take shape in the next year or so, either we go closer to the EU or we align with the US. From the sounds of things the US are very open to that and likewise as are the EU. We can't have both though.

Anyway, Trump thinks VAT should be considered tariffs. They're not.

@JazzG - do you feel comfortable that Trump can get something so fundamental wrong but is still right about everything else?

Gurgen he has no clue. he's used to bullying people. remember in real estate once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space. you can bully cities because they are desperate for prime real estate investment. and you can bully the banks once they've given you massive loans because it's hard to move property. so you can have buildings where you just don't pay the mortgage.
he is taking this advantage he has built up in real estate and trying to apply it in international affairs, where the fall back options are very different.

JazzG I don't think he is right about everything else, his stance on these tariffs is imo wrong but I think I understand why is doing it.

But this isn't about agreeing with his stance or reasoning, it's about him literally being factually wrong about VAT vs. tariffs. He's talking with certainty about things he clearly doesn't understand.

Claudius once you acquire a lot of property, you are in a position where you can bully everyone. you can bully tenants because it is inconvenient to move out of your space

Trump never knew any other position. His old man was a colour-barred apartment slumlord before he ever even reached majority.

QuincyAbeyie I did say he is wrong....

Germany being attacked from the left and right about free speech!