Clrnc It would have been a similar story with Sesko had our approach been considered. We're definitely not omniscient with our scouting.

      Burnwinter a lot of chatters online that the PSR seems fine and we can spend but not huge amounts. Main thing is owners want to see returns now and is putting a stop to us selling on a cheap and always buying over the value.

      They want to improve our reputation in the market etc.

          Clrnc a lot of chatters online that the PSR seems fine and we can spend but not huge amounts.

          Suppose we're considering spending X for Merino and Y for a forward currently. X is probably £30m, and Y would need to be at least that to secure a starter.

          Some Arsenal fans are basing "we're fine" comments on the absolute funds available now under PSR (estimated to be around £100m), and the expected absolute funds in the next window if we spend X+Y, which seem like they'd be vaguely okay (at least something like they are now).

          However, Arteta, Edu and the money men have to be reasoning in terms of the "football utility" of spending now (let's say we go for Merino and Saka cover) versus the expected utility of spending in 2025 and 2026.

          I originally did some back of the envelope calculations, but I'm not 100% confident how the whole system works. However I think our high nett spending after June 30 2023 continues to whack us until at least the end of the January 2026 window.

          This window we've abandoned "Rice" targets like Guimarães because of these factors. Roughly speaking, having sold Emile and signed Calafiori, we'd still have to sell Nketiah and wipe out our entire £100m PSR stack to go in hard for a "Rice" now, leaving us with pennies next summer.

          The players we would want such as Bruno either aren't available, or they're too costly. Being logical we're instead bargain-hunting for "Trossard" targets like Merino.

          But even with very good value players like Merino available, it would be reckless to lock in a £50–100m nett spend this window (the result of getting in Calafiori, Merino and "random forward" without further sales).

          Over the summers of 2025 and 2026 you can predict we're gonna crave at least two "Rice" signings:

          • the elite midfielder we'll need to compensate for Partey and Jorginho truly becoming senile
          • an elite forward, because winning back to back league and European doubles is hard

          Those signings will be attempted in a market where sales may be trickier due to flow-on effects of a continued contraction of Premier League spending throughout Europe ... but our money might go a smidgen further as well.

          In general a contraction due to this regulation won't favour us. We're holding a very complete squad and ultimately you can bet we'll turn to that slightly less cash-happy market with a few players who are currently beloved, guaranteed starters. Any player on old school wages with performance or injury issues will be hard to sell.

          So there's no way to escape this window being about frugality and sales. I'll be very surprised if we secure Merino and we're somehow still moving for a forward good enough to start ahead of Martinelli and Trossard.

          A move such as triggering Nico Williams' £47m release clause would be a hell of a punt unless we achieve some unlikely sales: maybe tie a bow on Nketiah, Ramsdale and Nelson for a total over £50m before the window closes.

          Good news is at least we've boosted commercial revenue quite a lot (I read somewhere up to £85m a year) through stuff like flogging off the Colney naming rights to Sobha Realty.

            Burnwinter it's something I've often found frustrating when there's reporting on how good our scouting. I remember for Partey, it was talking up the fact that Cagigao scouted him at Mallorca - great to hear but we still took a good c. 5 years to buy him and then his price was much greater.

            I'm not sure what the hold-up is - hesitant recruitment that wants to reduce the level of speculation on players or a firm belief that said players need to reach a certain level before they become viable purchases (or something else). Feels like something we could improve but might be held back by our historic poor selling (ie. we'd be more willing to speculate on players if there was more confidence we'd get a decent return for them).

                Don Pacifico a firm belief that said players need to reach a certain level before they become viable purchases

                With Calafiori and Sesko you've gotta think it's because performances at Swiss or Austrian clubs aren't much to go by. No doubt we've got a scouting database with these leagues and more in it, but perhaps whatever "moneyball" methods we've got don't surface them for fuller research, flights etc.

                I've got no idea how the economics of scouting works.

                I wonder if it might be worth actively tracking more of these dudes who are doing okay on loan in weak leagues from stronger clubs. Especially if we don't have competitors in their positions in our academy.

                  Don Pacifico I'm not sure what the hold-up is - hesitant recruitment that wants to reduce the level of speculation on players or a firm belief that said players need to reach a certain level before they become viable purchases (or something else)

                  It's a difficult balance, isn't it? You go too early, people say as they have with Fabio Vieira, what's he doing here? He's not good enough. And the truth is, he might never be - especially at the level Arsenal have now reached. But you wait too long and then you find the player out of your reach, because Chelsea, or Manchester United maybe, come and do something silly.

                      RocktheCasbah yep, survivor bias is real.

                      The club probably have a 100 players on their list now that are “highly rated”

                          Mirth exactly. Just because we scout or show interest in a player doesn't mean we believe they are capable of making the step up. If they go somewhere a level below us and show they can step up it makes sense for us to move then. All the big clubs operate like this. We could probably take a few more risks and try to send them on loan but overall no one was clamouring for Calafiori before this summer. Even before the euros he was hardly mentioned. If he turns out to be worth the money then its all good.

                          We do need a few more gambles in the back up slots though. If we can't find a top class attacker this summer I definitely think taking a gamble on someone in one of the back up slots would be a good idea. Particularly as cover for Saka.

                              Qwiss We do need a few more gambles in the back up slots though.

                              I'd be stoked if we found a "Saliba" style signing up front: an under 20 chance with "generational talent" in areas we're missing, who's also athletic and physically up to scratch. Now's a good time, while we've got decent but not fully convincing options. We'd just have to find the right profile for big money but not Højlund money.

                                There goes the potential Eddie sale. Good signing for Bournemouth. He was a real handful when we played Porto.

                                  Agreed. Excellent striker and great signing for Bournemouth.

                                  We seem to have priced Nektiah out of a move. Shame.

                                    TambourineMan kroenke wants his money I hear.
                                    But this is simple maths. Nobody is paying £30m for Eddie and then committing another £25m to him on a 5 year deal. That’s rich.

                                      Segway fuck. the market for eddie is shrinking. isn't there any desperate promoted clubs we can flog him to?

                                        Segway He's a very good striker. Bournemouth really knows their business under Iraola. All very good signings that will bring them up another level instead of being relegation contenders

                                          Keep Eddie then, and let him play in Carling Cup and random FA cup games. Figure out whatever loophole you need to figure out to enable us pick up Merino and whoever else is wanted, and move on.

                                          I reckon another club will want him, I doubt we've had all our hopes pinned on Bournemouth.

                                          But if we end up with less than what Marseille allegedly talked about, we've fucked up.

                                          I don't think Bournemouth were ever in for him. It was just a case of journos seeing them sell a striker and knowing we'd one available. Looks to me like they had Evanilson all but done before they let Solanke go.