Clrnc a lot of chatters online that the PSR seems fine and we can spend but not huge amounts.
Suppose we're considering spending X for Merino and Y for a forward currently. X is probably £30m, and Y would need to be at least that to secure a starter.
Some Arsenal fans are basing "we're fine" comments on the absolute funds available now under PSR (estimated to be around £100m), and the expected absolute funds in the next window if we spend X+Y, which seem like they'd be vaguely okay (at least something like they are now).
However, Arteta, Edu and the money men have to be reasoning in terms of the "football utility" of spending now (let's say we go for Merino and Saka cover) versus the expected utility of spending in 2025 and 2026.
I originally did some back of the envelope calculations, but I'm not 100% confident how the whole system works. However I think our high nett spending after June 30 2023 continues to whack us until at least the end of the January 2026 window.
This window we've abandoned "Rice" targets like Guimarães because of these factors. Roughly speaking, having sold Emile and signed Calafiori, we'd still have to sell Nketiah and wipe out our entire £100m PSR stack to go in hard for a "Rice" now, leaving us with pennies next summer.
The players we would want such as Bruno either aren't available, or they're too costly. Being logical we're instead bargain-hunting for "Trossard" targets like Merino.
But even with very good value players like Merino available, it would be reckless to lock in a £50–100m nett spend this window (the result of getting in Calafiori, Merino and "random forward" without further sales).
Over the summers of 2025 and 2026 you can predict we're gonna crave at least two "Rice" signings:
- the elite midfielder we'll need to compensate for Partey and Jorginho truly becoming senile
- an elite forward, because winning back to back league and European doubles is hard
Those signings will be attempted in a market where sales may be trickier due to flow-on effects of a continued contraction of Premier League spending throughout Europe ... but our money might go a smidgen further as well.
In general a contraction due to this regulation won't favour us. We're holding a very complete squad and ultimately you can bet we'll turn to that slightly less cash-happy market with a few players who are currently beloved, guaranteed starters. Any player on old school wages with performance or injury issues will be hard to sell.
So there's no way to escape this window being about frugality and sales. I'll be very surprised if we secure Merino and we're somehow still moving for a forward good enough to start ahead of Martinelli and Trossard.
A move such as triggering Nico Williams' £47m release clause would be a hell of a punt unless we achieve some unlikely sales: maybe tie a bow on Nketiah, Ramsdale and Nelson for a total over £50m before the window closes.
Good news is at least we've boosted commercial revenue quite a lot (I read somewhere up to £85m a year) through stuff like flogging off the Colney naming rights to Sobha Realty.
