awooga83 A negotiation in 2014 would equally not have led in my view too this being over.
I agree. And equally it won't be over after any negotiation that happens now either.
It may naively look like Russia, but the strategic winner from the last decade in Ukraine is the United States. Russia's had to fight a bloody war, lose all international standing and lose its European markets. The EU has had to lose its ties to Russia and get humiliated. And Ukraine's been fucked by all sides.
Meanwhile the United States has a functional onshore gas industry, and has cut the EU halfway off from a great power rival ... and now it's come back round with a different hat on to extract a few hundred billion for doing the favour, while calling itself a peacemaker.