RowJimmy Interesting. What's your source?
2024 US Election
Obsessively trying to understand how my country can be about to reelect a sociopath whose fascism is only tempered by his short attention span.
I read a lot of "how to understand the polling" stuff. I like Nate Cohn in the NYT. It's not my field, and my technical abilities in statistics are weak. But I think I've developed a better sense than most people of the fact that a 60% probability only differs from a coin flip if you get to repeat the exercise fifty times.
hoegan just ends up agreeing with his guests.
RowJimmy Fair enough. Of course polling numbers (eg "57 to 43 with a 5% margin of error") can't be transformed without further modelling into reliable election victory odds at all, and especially not in the US due to the madness that is the college system.
Burnwinter the term sometimes used is “calcification” to describe this hardebining of most of the electorate in one camp or the other.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/09/16/midterms-2020-election-polarization/
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Qwiss yep. peter thiel was on his show recently and he just nodded along with everything
, despite thiel being a conspiracy-tards wet dream. no questions about palantir or its CIA connections, nothing about his connections to JD Vance. he nibbled at Epstein stuff but seemed to back off once thiels sweat levels spiked. he doesn't really hammer his guests often
9 days later
based on all the polls over the last week or so, and the scary reports about early voting in places like nevada, it looks like we are getting 4 more years of trump. not sure what will be left of this country after that, but i can virtually guarantee that dems will learn zero lessons, and they will actually move even further to the right than they already are. truly bleak, soul crushing stuff.
mdgoonah41 sorry.
everyday through this process, it's more apparent just how right-leaning the US is.
Not about leaning right or left it is about who the Democrats put forward. Democrats have known for years Biden should not stand again but buried their heads in the sand and only pushed him out when it was too late. I think that error has cost them the election.
The fact it is so close even with Kamala shows this election was winnable for the Democrats. Barring a miracle she is probably going to lose and imo the main reason for that is because she comes across as incompetent. The fact she got knocked out so early in voting 4 years ago I think shows the Democrat voters don't really like her but she has been forced upon them.
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if kamala loses it will be because the electorate viewed her as too far to the left, so i don't know what lefty lessons you expect the democrats to get from that. every trump ad is about transgenders and the border. joe biden is probably the most progressive president we've had in a long ass time and kamala can't even run on his record because even the progressives won't give him any credit because it's not good enough. if there aren't enough voters on one side, you move in the direction of the voters. clinton and third way politics came about after the reagan revolution and getting trounced at the polls. losing elections, especially when the choice is CRYSTAL clear has consequences. you do not lose to donald trump and say "man we really need to move more to left" when the voters would be saying "he's right you know."
oh and she's not losing.
Oh sorry do I need your permission now to talk about American politics? Calm down you take politics too seriously. Whatever side you get it is gonna be the same ol shit.
i personally dont think it has anything to do with her specific competence or ability. the democratic party in this country is fundamentally broken, both in terms of vision and execution. and it really has nothing to do with her specifically.