2024 US Election: Page 28 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

2024 US Election

JazzG

Supposedly Kamala is going on Fox News and Joe Rogan, internally they must be really worried if she is taking risks like that.

Qwiss

JazzG Rogan doesn't go hard at anyone. She'd be absolutely fine there.

Gazza M

it would be funny if she did rogan before trump. the entire spectrum of online right wing grifters have been gradually colonising that podcast ever since he relocated to Texas, and have been endlessly lobbying to get trump on there. I remember him saying a few years back he wasn't interested in having him on and had turned down a couple of requests from his team, but he has gone off the deep end with musk lately. can't imagine him having kamala on and not trump

JazzG

I thought Trump recently said he would be going on?

What does she mean by "Protect cryptocurrency investments so Black men who make them know their money is safe"? Saw Obama the other day saying more black men need to come out for her, am guessing this is in reference to the tweet below. Am guessing this is an area where they think they can claw back support

jones

JazzG this woman made a career of putting black men in prison for life for peddling weed now she wants to encourage it. No wonder her family has disowned her.

Claudius

lol. The crypto thing is weird. Black men are disproportionately investing in crypto because they feel disenfranchised. The Democrats need to focus on the core issues of why they (like a lot of other demographics) feel left out and left behind. This is an insane party at times

JazzG

Gazza M i think the 'losing black men' narrative will turn out to be just that, a narrative. there is an element of red pill types online who are chirping alot, but represent a demogrpahic that historically don't actually turn out at the polls. most of the top pollsters have her support among black voters at the same level as Bidens 2020 numbers, around 87%.

Your probably right but this tweet by her campaign and Obama specifically mentioning it indicates they think they need to solidify this demographic. Maybe internally their polling has worried them?

Claudius lol. The crypto thing is weird. Black men are disproportionately investing in crypto because they feel disenfranchised. The Democrats need to focus on the core issues of why they (like a lot of other demographics) feel left out and left behind. This is an insane party at times

That statement comes across as quite patronising I thought, why do black men need to be reassured their investments are safe there? Like you say really weird statement.

Gazza M

i think the 'losing black men' narrative will turn out to be just that, a narrative. there is an element of red pill types online who are chirping alot, but represent a demogrpahic that historically don't actually turn out at the polls. most of the top pollsters have her support among black voters at the same level as Bidens 2020 numbers, around 87%.

Burnwinter

One thing about US elections nowadays is that the polling numbers can be way off the mark. Must admit at this distance I have no gut feeling whatsoever about the "real" sentiments of turnout and preference.

mdgoonah41

Burnwinter i dont think polling is inherently bad, i think people just do not understand the basics of polling, and more specifically, probability and things like margin of error. a poll that has a margin of error of 5% that shows trump +1 could be anything from trump +6 to harris +4. thats a really broad range of outcomes. too many people only look at the top line number and dont understand the specifics. polling also is not really "scientific" when the core of your sample is derived from people answering a phone call from an unknown number in the year 2024

mdgoonah41

Burnwinter

mdgoonah41 Sure people are illiterate concerning estimation, but I think polling is also generally less accurate since the advent of the internet and especially social media. Sentiment is more volatile and less uniform than it was once.

RowJimmy

Actually (at least in the US) sentiment has hardened. 49% of the vote will be democratic. 45% of the vote will be republican. So pollsters are trying to figure out what that remaining 6% will do. And these people are not "centrists." They're low information, low engagement, low probability voters. Who don't answer the phone and who don't tell the truth. But everyone else's mind was made up a long time ago.

mdgoonah41

RowJimmy agree with this. people are only undecided in the sense that they havent decided whether or not they are actually going to vote.

Burnwinter

RowJimmy Interesting. What's your source?

Claudius

Burnwinter the term sometimes used is “calcification” to describe this hardebining of most of the electorate in one camp or the other.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/09/16/midterms-2020-election-polarization/

RowJimmy

Obsessively trying to understand how my country can be about to reelect a sociopath whose fascism is only tempered by his short attention span.
I read a lot of "how to understand the polling" stuff. I like Nate Cohn in the NYT. It's not my field, and my technical abilities in statistics are weak. But I think I've developed a better sense than most people of the fact that a 60% probability only differs from a coin flip if you get to repeat the exercise fifty times.

Burnwinter

RowJimmy Fair enough. Of course polling numbers (eg "57 to 43 with a 5% margin of error") can't be transformed without further modelling into reliable election victory odds at all, and especially not in the US due to the madness that is the college system.

Gazza M

Qwiss yep. peter thiel was on his show recently and he just nodded along with everything
, despite thiel being a conspiracy-tards wet dream. no questions about palantir or its CIA connections, nothing about his connections to JD Vance. he nibbled at Epstein stuff but seemed to back off once thiels sweat levels spiked. he doesn't really hammer his guests often

Meatwad

hoegan just ends up agreeing with his guests.

Claudius

Gazza M why would Joe Rogan hammer a right wing nut job like Thiel.

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