Arsenal Outs 2024: Page 23 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Arsenal Outs 2024

Burnwinter

goon In fact he had a silkyness on the ball that the other two couldn’t match.

This is it. For better or worse, Smith Rowe was (and probably is) an eye-catching football talent as well as having decided a few matches. No one* has ever** argued Eddie was a future first XI player.

* Rhetorical usage
** Also rhetorical usage

Claudius

Burnwinter lol. You clearly missed Klaus championing Eddie as the next big thing.

Klaus had a keen eye. But him leaning in on Eddie and many of us on ESR is a reminder of just how volatile youth trajectories are.

Think about if you had 100% value to allocate to the following players on their respective 18th birthday, how much of it would you allocate to each player: Nketiah, Nelson, ESR, Saka, AMN, Willock?

invisibleman18

Burnwinter Wenger said in his book (and it may not be true) that Van Persie asked him if he could come back when he left United too. Genuinely thought he could leave in the way he did, go and win the title for the hated rival and then return to some sort of hero's homecoming welcome. He's neither loved nor barely even remembered by United fans now and it seems to really bug him.

Burnwinter

invisibleman18 He always did come across as clueless and impressionable and still does … being almost as dumb as Antony is the only thing that makes Van Persie a little (just a little) forgivable. It's a shame, because what an exceptional player he was.

Coombs

Claudius Nketiah, Nelson, ESR, Saka, AMN, Willock

Think I'd have been:

9.99% Nketiah
10% Nelson
40% ESR
25% Saka
.01% AMN
15% Willock

But hard to remember.

banduan

Claudius Think about if you had 100% value to allocate to the following players on their respective 18th birthday, how much of it would you allocate to each player: Nketiah, Nelson, ESR, Saka, AMN, Willock?

oh ffs do we have to? 😆

Claudius

Coombs Think I'd have been:

9.99% Nketiah
10% Nelson
40% ESR
25% Saka
.01% AMN
15% Willock

And if I gave you a 100 points to allocate now, how would you distribute them amongst the same players?

Asterix

I'm old enough to remember being sad about Fank Stapleton and Liam Brady leaving. I loved those guys, even if I only saw them play in the FA Cup once a year.

Henry was a sad one but it had been several seasons in a row and in some way he felt too big for the club. Cesc and Patrick were certainly also right up. Ashley Cole was a bit of a shock because he'd grown up here, and the supposedly extra 5k a week seemed so trivial.

Burnwinter

Probably rated prospects like Iwobi higher than the likes of Willock in their day … I suspect we generally rated youngsters a bit more highly in the Wenger years because we saw more of them?

Maitland-Niles has won his place in a Lyon side that's starting to perform, so he's not quite on the scrap heap. He was an irritating misfit when he was at Arsenal.

I think Klaus was quite right to advocate for Nketiah, I don't remember it ever going as far as saying he'd be our new first choice 9 … if it did, surely only for the sake of the rhetoric.

I reckon Eddie will attract more interest over the next month. At £25m he would be good value compared to some. I like how we are overseeing our summer sales so far, the fee for Smith Rowe is a success by our standards. The situation with Ramsdale is a disappointment if anything.

lorddulaarsenal

We all allocated many percents to Jeff right?

HomeSteak

lorddulaarsenal bet money he gets less then 100 minutes in all competitions this year

QuincyAbeyie long gone are the days where you had to watch football, score and win. It's not bad here bar a few stat people, but go on r/gunners for example and I swear even if we lose all is good if we win the field tilt, and xG, and xY, xZ and whatever the fuck they will come up with this year. The more obscure the better.
Now I see it goes for players as well. Remember our fans having to dig deep into stats to be able to pretend Ozil was not shit and lazy at the end there....

Qwiss

HomeSteak but go on r/gunners for example and I swear even if we lose all is good if we win the field tilt, and xG, and xY, xZ and whatever the fuck they will come up with this year. The more obscure the better.

Those redditers don't care about on the pitch stuff, they're basically celeb obsessed and care more about the players PR and off field stuff. They're really weird about player looks and their wags.

Clrnc

Qwiss some of the people here also behaved like this tbh. Always found it weird when we lost a match and then see posts like they are super happy with the performance because we had a very high xG

Don Pacifico

Clrnc I think it depends on the context. I do agree that data can be abused/over-used in football and the metrics tracked should never be the KPI as to whether we've been successful in a match but they can uncover or help substantiate interesting trends/patterns (etc.).

For example, when we were in a slump, positive indicators of performance from statistical analysis can help show we're heading in the right direction even when we're not getting the results we deserve. And vice versa.

Claudius

Clrnc I’m one of those people. 🙂
So I spend a lot of time reading proper data people like Knutson and others. Folks who have explanatory data, not random numbers. Very often, you can look at a team and see that it’s actually fine and needs very small tweaks. A good example is Arsenal first half of last season season when many people were unhappy but advanced metrics showed we were the best team across a lot of dimensions. We were just not putting in final balls. We were controlling the game as well as anybody in Europe, but our lack of goals was causing significantly more panic than the advanced metrics suggested.

What we shouldn’t do is just threw around numbers for the hell of it. But definitely looking at control numbers over several weeks helps understand your team’s potential. And ease the immediate stress of a loss.

Big Willie

Claudius I’m one of those people.

Kel Varnsen

Claudius

I am also one of those people. In the short to medium term (ca. 4-8 games), xG is statistically a better predictor of future success than goals . The reason is that goals are poisson distributed, and the sd is nearly as big as the mean. In other words, there is a lot of noise and randomness to goals (in the short run).

Burnwinter

This stings a bit. And then he celebrates it with Iwobi.

HomeSteak

Burnwinter I have said it in another place as well. ESR will out score every one on our team bar Saka next year. No doubt, he is just good at that, he might not be great at the new stats, at enterying the box at an angle or whatever...but he scores, that old long forgotten stat. A very important skill, one that you either have or not

Say yea Edu

goon

Burnwinter

Lovely to see for me personally. He’s one player I’d genuinely like to see do well and I think he’ll be a fantastic signing for Fulham.

TambourineMan

I'm going to soften the blow by getting him in my FPL team.

Asterix

TambourineMan yep, high on my list of "I hope no else notices him" for my auction league.

Coombs

You'd have to imagine he feels so free right now.

Burnwinter

Coombs Celebrates it with the look of bemusement of a freed prisoner having his first beer.

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