Fulham v Manchester City - Sat 11th May - 1230 PM KO GMT: Page 2 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Fulham v Manchester City - Sat 11th May - 1230 PM KO GMT

QuincyAbeyie

I don't think City will drop points either, but I also think people need to move away from looking for a specific game City will be expected to drop points. Games away to us and Liverpool are probably the only games where a City win isn't the most likely outcome. This doesn't mean they finish with 108+ points though, because that's not how probability works. If a team plays three games where the chance of them winning is 85 % in each, the chance of them winning all of them is about 60 %.

awooga83

QuincyAbeyie no that's fair, but we will have a similar factor although with less games. I also think this part of the season makes surprise results slightly less likely just because when the opposition have nothing to particularly play for it often undermines their competitiveness.

The reason why the models built on historical data favoured them was their ability to get through these fixtures and people felt it was unfair to us because it didn't shine m account for improvements we've seen but it was based on us just not being able to close out these positions and that looks like it will remain the case at least for another season.

HomeSteak

awooga83 I think we dropped 4 points in 2024

Claudius

HomeSteak hard to criticise the team when they’re going up against a machine.

You can see what happens to normal teams. Look at Pool running out of steam. Villa end Spurs completely shitting the bed in the race for 4th. They’re twenty points behind us.

daredevil

Gurgen

Yeah, they're trickier than Spurs or Chelsea. The chances those two missed in transition, I'm wary that Rashford and Garnacho would convert.

Claudius

awooga83 this is the form table for the trailing ten games

City 26 points
Arsenal 25 points
Newcastle / Chelsea 19 points
Liverpool 18

We are closing out fine. You can see that we are much better than everyone else in the run-in, including Liverpool who we e just lapped.

Clrnc

Claudius closing out fine in a normal year except for the fact we already dropped too many points in the first half of the season.

But I prefer to see it the other way. We dropped the points , it was done. We then know we have to be 100% perfect after drawing at Etihad. Liverpool lost right after against Palace. We had a supreme chance to consolidate our advantage while we are leading the table. We didn't. Shit happens. We lost it there.

awooga83

Claudius I was referring more to closing out to win the title. It's tough no doubt but once we got ourselves top with 7 to go, the challenge for us was to not drop points and we get the outcome we are targeting whatever happens. As good as we've managed to be it looks like we aren't going to do that and outperform the team we are going head to head with a team which was last beaten on 6th December and tend to have been pretty good at navigating the second half of seasons.

Sicario2 - Tier 1

So looks like vast majority of us think in our heart of hearts it’s City’s title?

The only one thing I’m clinging on to it is destiny.

Sounds strange but trust me if we are meant to win it, we will win it.

Burnwinter

Sicario2 - Tier 1 So looks like vast majority of us think in our heart of hearts it’s City’s title?

Nah ... it's not over till it's over.

goon

Burnwinter

Opta still give us a 35% chance, which is far from hopeless.

Claudius

awooga83 seriously, this is an unreasonable standard.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius you've said yourself previously that we need a trophy. Have City done anything new since then that made you change your mind? They've been doing this for years, it's not like we're just now realizing what kind of cheats we're up against.

Clrnc

Claudius City isn't unbeatable. This is not an unreasonable standard, we just needed to have 2 more points from any of Villa or Fulham or West Ham.

Burnwinter

goon Bookies still give us 25% as well. It's a very real chance. Just gotta roll over United from my point of view, even if City drop points we'll still be freaking out before Everton.

Bernard Woolley

QuincyAbeyie We do. For all of Liverpool's brilliance in the last few years, his tenure at Liverpool will be remembered for 1 PL and 1 CL, not the year when they finished 2nd to Man City by 1 point.

Claudius

Clrnc City are near unbeatable.
Even Real were lucky to get out of that quarterfinal tie with their dignity intact. Once they’re in peak conditioning and their stars are healthy, they’re an immovable force.

QuincyAbeyie, we have to win something for people to remember us down the line. Nobody remembers that our 1999 team was actually brilliant. But I’m also conscious that we are up against a uniquely tough rival. Hopefully either this season or in the next 2 we get that title.

Qwiss

Sicario2 - Tier 1 if this works will build you a statue at OMIT HQ.

Coombs

Clrnc we just needed to have 2 more points from any of Villa or Fulham or West Ham.

We also needed to beat almost everyone else in every game. Points get dropped, that's football.

Burnwinter

Claudius Once they’re in peak conditioning and their stars are healthy, they’re an immovable force.

Sheesh, I was feeling fairly measured, but the line you're taking is certainly making me more desperate to beat them.

There's such a thing as too much respect, don't you think? We've outscored and out-defended them as well as outpointing them for half the season and taking four points head to head.

If we don't take our crown back from City this season, we're just storing it in a safe place for later.

goon

Coombs

Any season you don't win there will have been something you could have done better. There's no real point in ruing these things except to torture yourself.

18/19 Liverpool won 2 games out of 6 while in first place, that ultiamtely resulted in them dropping to second. This included a draw at home to Leicester and away to the likes of West Ham and Everton. They never got top stop back and finished the season in second with 97 points.

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