2024 US Election

Gazza M

Election season is officially on in the states

Trump is obviously going to be the republican nominee, so we're getting histories most disappointing sequel

the national polls have trump marginally ahead at the moment, but my feeling is as the big day gets closer, more and more people will find trump and his army of zealots off-putting and opt for status quo Joe

what say you?

Burnwinter

I reckon Trump will win, here's my logic:

analysis is a dead issue (we all know the problem is "late capitalism"), but there is no compelling prescription
as a result liberal politics becomes a kind of anti-political fan-fiction
the distinctive trait of liberal contemporary fiction (eg every show of the "prestige" era of television) is to sell a problematic text bundled with its critiques, "creating a conversation" which adds to consumer enjoyment
in these storylines, the 'dilemma' of hope versus doom (eg on climate change) is illusory rather than salient … all sides are drawn to doom as it's the most reassuring option (as per the politics of the meteor film DON'T LOOK UP)
the bundled story product that's coming with this election is: (1) democracy is broken, (2) therefore Trump wins, (3) lots of conversations about how Trump is a moronic proto-fascist, (4) no need to reckon again with the melancholic constraints of a progressive victory

Thing is, (4) is the reason Biden has lost popularity and prospects in one term, but each complaint about how the Democrats can't provide a hopeful alternative is a reminder of how much more 'fun' (3) was. As we see in the resurgence of short video content about how Trump has lied again about the 2020 vote count, or Trump impressions, jokes about Trump's toupée etc.

kamikaze

Burnwinter This is depressingly accurate. I wish it weren't. I had written but deleted a much longer reply. Humanity has unleashed forces and created systems that are now inevitable. A lot of people (myself included) have just stopped caring.

Qwiss

Looking forward to non-stop hearing about how Trump is a threat to freedom and morality while Biden continues to bomb Yemen and send weapons to Israel.

Gazza M

people laughed off trumps spurious election challenges in 2020 as empty political theatre, despite it leading to the events of jan 6th. i believed that it was extremely naive to write off his post-election behaviour as harmless posturing and jan 6 as a demonstration that simply got a bit rowdy . I always felt everything he did post 2020 was a long game to undermine all 3 branches of American democracy, and imo he's gone a long way to achieiving that. people talk a big game about both sides being corrupt, but I don't think they're prepared for the smoke that comes if the US actually becomes a right wing autocracy led by a thin skinned strongman with a score to settle, and an even more unhinged cabal of advisors than last time

Qwiss

Gazza M if Trump was actually a threat to America the way you describe he'd be removed. The fact he isn't goes to show how much of a non-threat to the status quo he is. The FBI were well rooted into every right wing group that turned up on Jan 6th and they did nothing to stop it because they knew it was a joke and wasn't going to have any effect.

We've seen Trump in power, he's a boorish horrible cunt but he doesn't really move the needle much in terms of what America is and does.

Burnwinter

Yeah I think you're right. The various attempts to take him down legally have always strengthened him and that's continuing with stuff like the Colorado "insurrectionist" lawsuit to get him taken off the ballot.

He uses it to his advantage constantly, for instance he's just joked that if Haley was a serious contender, she'd be investigated as much as he is. January 6 wasn't either a farcical spectacle or a half serious attempt at a coup—it was both.

Unfortunately the DNC doesn't seem to care that they need to actually mobilise people. If all they've got is court cases and holding their nerve, they'll lose.

As for what might happen if Trump wins again, it's probably a worse time for it than 2016. It would change the balance of world affairs. I have a hunch Netanyahu's current brinkmanship in Gaza, systematic slaughter and displacement along with this unvarnished rejection of the usual pantomime peace process of a two state solution, and insisting the IDF will have indefinite "full security control", is tied to a theory the US will be pulling back further.

JazzG

Trump wins this easily, the Democrats should have left him alone and he probably would have faded away. Instead they keep rambling on and a lot of their arguments have been falling apart.

Trump has successfully framed the court cases as a cover up and as a result no Republican candidate was able to get near him. Considering the state of things in America and it seems old age is catching up with Joe I don't see anything but a comprehensive win for Trump.

Claudius

Qwiss pretty much this. And as you said, he’s less dangerous to the world than Biden. I foresee an easy win. The republicans will respond like they’re being marginalised and come out in numbers to vote. Democrats don’t have the same urgency/anxiety.

Gazza M

Qwiss I'll never understand this logic. he's been allowed to exist, therefore doesn't represent a threat. he's been inundated with lawsuits and some states supreme courts have determined he be removed from the ballot altogether, much of which stems back to his poat 2020 election interference. if any of that sticks, does he then rise to the level of 'not being allowed to exist', and only at that point can be considered a credible threat? the lullaby of the autocrat really is working. flood the zone with enough bullshit that people start giving up altogether and believing there's no threat in the dominant international power unravelling democratically.

and as with much of the far rights platform, 'stopping endless wars' seems virtuous on the surface, but in reality it's an attempt to blow up the current US power structure from the inside and remake it with lord knows what, probably something from steve bannons fever dream. these guys are playing for keeps.

goon

I'll personally never quite understand 'the right wing/far right isn't that much worse that the other guy' takes you always get when these things come around.

The idea that Biden is more dangerous to the world is madness. You can bet your arse that despots around the world like Netanyahu are praying for Trump to get in power.

Claudius

goon it’s a bit more nuanced than that, Goon.
Right wing hard men, racists, nationalists around the world will prefer Trump. He also gravitates to these types of men, and will endorse them even if not explicitly.

But Trump doesn’t care about an active US foreign policy where American identity is defined by muscle. Biden continues this tradition, even if he isn’t as hawkish as a Cheney or Rumsfeld.

goon

Claudius

American foreign policy has been a disaster, but I don’t think the answer is for them to go from enabling the likes of Israel and the Saudis, to giving them a free hand to do what they like to achieve their geopolitical aims (while presumably still arming them to the teeth).

And I also think Trump would indiscriminately bomb the shit out of Yemen if stuff like the shipping lane closures impacted them at home.

Anyway, foreign policy aside, the fact that he’s a beacon for racists, fascists, misogynists etc. around the world is enough for me.

Burnwinter

goon giving them a free hand to do what they like to achieve their geopolitical aims (while presumably still arming them to the teeth).

Yeah, it's worth noting that where government influence recedes, capital goes forward—ie the western military-industrial complex if Trump is elected.

Mirth

Fact remains that Trump's the only President in a long time to not start a new conflict. To the majority of the non English speaking world, it doesn't matter whose in the White House when it comes to foreign policy.

Trump has enabled a bunch of right wing strongmen in the West but also the 4 major strongmen in the world right now - Putin, Xi, Modi and Netanyahu - were in place before 2016. Trump's part of a wider trend and anyone who views him as the turning point wasn't paying attention.

JazzG

Just like COVID/BLM protests sunk Trump I think this border issue will sink Biden.

Coombs

JazzG except that Biden's, and for that matter Obama's, border policies are really no different to Trump or any Republican's. The border is a tool. Frame it one way, get the goon who will enrich your corporate partners in power. Frame it another, money flows the other direction.

awooga83

Coombs yeah I'm not fully up to speed in the nuances of local politics in the US but I imagine this is likely to be about a partisanship point rather then a good faith attempt at resolving an issue .

JazzG

Coombs This is what a lot of Politicians do, they know they have no solution for the issue in hand (in this case the border) themselves but will just pin it all on the party that is failing and voters will fall for that.

Working for Labour here as well, Keir Starmer has not put forward a single viable solution but happy to sit back and was the Conservatives tear themselves apart trying to get on top of it.

Burnwinter

Gazza M probably something from steve bannons fever dream

If it goes in line with the current worries of conservative "foreign policy realists" and the obsessions of Bannon, then it'll be an attempt to "pivot to China". So probably more sabre-rattling in the Pacific, relative withdrawal of forces and attention from Palestine and Ukraine, and more trade warfare ...

Qwiss

Burnwinter I mean that goes forward anyway when we are talking about the US. And has done much better under Biden than it did under Trump. Trump was still bombing Somalia and Lybia and deserves to go to the Hague for it but the MIC has hardly ever done better than under Biden. Sure Bidens giving money to Ukraine and Israel to spend on US weapons.

Gazza M those legal challenges are more theatre. Only the extremely naive ever thought anything would come of them. Trump doesn't challenge American hegemony in anyway, he talks a big games about draining the swamp, etc but he gives the security state and the letter agencies everything they want.

Tam

JazzG I don't get this point. Isn't it Sunak's job (Or Truss, or Johnson, or May, or...) to propose and implement solutions? Policy and solutions are largely for elections and manifestos. Not a bad thing to know where they're heading, but not sure exactly what Labour (or LibDems/SNP/Greens) are supposed to be doing here - they're not governing.

What specific issue are you talking about in any case?