I agree bernie isn't even really far left. it sounds like gurgen is referring to the lefty doomers that are further left of sanders that see him as a betrayer of the leftist movement. those sorts have absolutely no sway in the party at all. in fact many of them have horseshoed around to be pro-trump in order to punish the democratic establishment at any cost, but again, they have no proximity to power and are very much in the minority

    Gazza M They seem to be an outlier but a respectable polling company so their opinion holds weight.

    Gurgen The era won’t be behind us even if he loses though. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. If you have a country divided by two groups of extremists while the centre keeps churning out average candidates, this is what you will continue to get.

    Spot on

          The wokey types aren't leftists, and they're certainly not extremists, unless you think being extremely annoying counts.

          JazzG Selzer is not "a respectable polling company." She's the most highly respected pollster in the industry. Which doesn't mean Harris will win Iowa. But this same release in 2016 was the one serious poll that caught what was about to happen, when everyone else was talking about a Clinton landslide.

              Qwiss even then, the democrats have swung away from focusing on cultural issues this time around. gurgen was comparing left and right extremism, and I'm saying there is no comparison worth making no matter how you define the left

                  RowJimmy yep. she even caught the over-polling of Biden in 2020. most pollsters had him up by 5-7 points in the swing states, but her final Iowa poll indicated it was going to much tighter, and it was. even if the margin of error is in trumps favour that only puts him at 1+ which is a terrible result. there's confluence with a few other red state polls that came out in the last few days in Kansas and Ohio, which show her being much closer than she should be in those states as well. its being driven by women, independents and eating into the margins in trump favoured rural areas. it feels like the real killer for him on election day could be the republican defection rate

                    Gazza M oh I agree. The only people who call the democrats far left are extreme conservatives.

                      fuck around and find out.

                      I'm hesitant to say it, but it sounds like there might be reason to think Kamala Harris will soon removing one word from her job title..?

                        Kinda amazed to get online and read all these major outlets with headlines saying the race is "too tight to predict" at this stage. It makes the whole US political system feel almost phantasmal.

                        Is there any more reliable polling analysis out there than that?

                        the polling industry is under real scrutiny this cycle. that iowa-selzer poll caused quite a stir, because it was the first highly rated poll that significantly broke from the 50-50 narrative. nate silver said he suspected alot of pollsters were 'herding' their polls to reflect a 50-50 race, so as to protect their reputations. the other factor is that the market may have been flooded with payola polls that favour the GOP and maintain the appearance of a competitive race. for example, there was a sudden influx of 4-5 GOP sponsored iowa polls right on the heels of the selzer one to counter the narrative. there's some data coming through in recent days that suggests late undecideds are breaking for harris, as well as a swing towards her among senior women voters.

                        polls close in 24 hours. we should have an indication on how the tight the race is based on how places like Virginia and Michigan are called on election night. if harris is running behind Bidens numbers in those states, then it's time to pepper your angus. North Carolina and Georgia should also be called on the night and if she steals either of those, trumps path is very narrow.

                          Gazza M nate silver said he suspected alot of pollsters were 'herding' their polls to reflect a 50-50 race, so as to protect their reputations. the other factor is that the market may have been flooded with payola polls that favour the GOP and maintain the appearance of a competitive race. for example, there was a sudden influx of 4-5 GOP sponsored iowa polls right on the heels of the selzer one to counter the narrative.

                          I've been thinking all through our conversations—even on here—that the pollster comment feels like it's more about influence than measurement.

                            Burnwinter would be better still if the Dems won the House. The Senate is too much of a stretch but if would be awful for Harris if the Republicans controlled both Houses.

                              this turd needs to take a massive L

                                Clrnc that's about right. there hasnt been any quality polls since august that show trump cracking 47/48 in the rust belt, whereas quite a few have had her holding around the 50/51 mark. barring 2016, the rust belt has been fairly blue for the last few cycles hence the 'blue wall' moniker. I read an article which said the phenomenon of the hidden trump voter may be less of a factor this time, as pollsters are sampling more republicans so they don't miss again. there hasnt been a presidential polling 'miss' 3 elections in a row since the 70s but again trump is unlike any other candidate. if anything in the rust belt flips its most likely over for her.