jones feel like you’re skipping the part where ex-Warsaw Pact countries actively wanted to be a part of NATO and why even strategically neutral Finland decided to take the plunge recently. Any understanding of the situation starts from there.
Previously you’ve been keen to stress that the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union as a militarised force but that judgement is still out. For most Eastern European countries, it doesn’t matter if it’s the Russian Empire, the USSR or modern day Russia, they know that their land is seen to be of “permanent strategic interest” to their much larger neighbour. The lesson learned if you’re a small to mid regional power today is that you either need to be part of a military alliance with cast iron guarantees or have your own nuclear weapon program. Otherwise your destiny is in the hands of the great powers.
Frankly, you don’t have to even discuss Russia/Ukraine - it’s a normal outcome when you have a belligerent neighbour- Canada, for example, has started making noises about allying more closely with the UK and France to house nukes and they’ve only been under pressure for about 30 days. Imagine what several centuries can do to a national psyche instead.
After that, yes, it’s pretty obvious that the US, while drunk on their unipolar superiority, overplayed their hands and promises by backing Russia into a corner without regard for their “permanent strategic interest” in the region.