I suspect the main award will go to Bale and the young player award will go to Wilshere.
Of course, logic suggests that if Bale wins the former than he should automatically win the latter.
Btw, that these short-lists were determined early is evident in the fact that Nasri is on the main shortlist while Wilshere isn't. It is my humble belief that Wilshere has been Arsenal's player of the season. He may not have had the highs that both van Persie and Nasri enjyoed in short periods, but his body of work over the season has been the most impressive.