Agree with Coombs that it's about consistency. Personally I think it's the long consistent records of Corbyn and Sanders that made it possible for a broader group to get behind them.

If this is the start of the end for Sanders' campaign, it'll be a big task for the DSA to find someone with Sanders' appeal to push forward their rather orthodox social democratic agenda from here. People are not going to mobilise behind a 50 year old version of the same thing unless the candidate is exceptional.

The younger stars of socialism in the US like Ocasio-Cortez are not eligible to run and would meet with a reactionary response anyway.

good point on track record and authenticity BW. very rare to find anyone that has those

I think that's why we're seeing all these extremely old candidates.

It's hard to imagine someone pushing 80 who's been saying the same thing for 40 years choosing that moment to sell out completely … people like Buttigieg are so evidently pre-sold, adept at shifting registers and appearances, networked.

Gazza M wrote:

california and texas are obviously key. if biden is viable in california, wins texas, and win the rest of the south as predicted, things tighten up considerably. most of the numbers classed the above scenario as 'unlikely' a week ago, but the combination of sweeping SC and buttigieg dropping out has changed the complexion of things

Pretty much everything that could go wrong for bernie, did 

Bernie is toast. Will get a ton of delegates out of California, but the voters have gone for electability. First electability shook the blacks and Latinos. Then it shook the women. Now the socialists can say bye bye. The media needs to stop talking about electability. It leads to this outcome: moderate white men who won’t shake shit up.

Also, exit polls suggest young voters did not turn out, which shows in Bernie’s numbers. I worked with a political party back home. One of the things we saw is that what might appear to be a youth swell on social media and events is very difficult to translate into votes. The same young people will just sit their asses home on Election Day.

A sad day for America. And the world, to be fair.

One other thing that I find weird in America is this idea of low information voters. It’s typically used to describe to rural / peri-urban whites, and blacks and Latinos. Again, from home, I often found that rural voters are much more informed than you might expect. They might not buy newspapers and spend time on news websites, but they receive social media memes. When they work, they have the radio on listening to political debate and call-in programs, and then spend spare time discussing politics and development issues that impact them.

"Low information voters" is just classism. Same as "populism" etc

Bernie won California so all is not lost for him yet, is it?

It was a blow for him that Buttigieg dropped his candicacy since Buttigieg's voters seems to have switched to Biden.

Bernie is losing “self-identifying” Democrats by large margins. Again, it’s sad but it goes back to what I was saying about building relationships. The guy has great ideas, but when he comes into the Democratic Party and is talking about taking on the establishment, etc., rather than focus on his great ideas, he starts to turn off some people. Hopefully, the younger socialists like The Squad are watching him and know how to navigate. They often display similar tear the house down ideals, and they could also experience cell rejection at Presidential level of not careful.

Segway wrote:

Bernie won California so all is not lost for him yet, is it?

It was a blow for him that Buttigieg dropped his candicacy since Buttigieg's voters seems to have switched to Biden.

My understanding is that Sanders winning California was a foregone conclusion anyway. Although he'll probably end up with roughly the same number of delegates as Biden at this stage, Sanders' performance in places like Virginia and Texas will be more relevant for the rest of the nomination process. Particularly now that moderates have more or less coalesced around Biden

Segway wrote:

Bernie won California so all is not lost for him yet, is it?

It was a blow for him that Buttigieg dropped his candicacy since Buttigieg's voters seems to have switched to Biden.

a CA win was priced in for bernie. He'll now need to win CA by like 20 points to make up the margins, but alot of his electability argument has been punctured by losing massachusets, Minnesota, texas, and by being light years away in virginia. He'll get killed in boomer central florida 2 weeks from now as well. Inability to court the african American vote and low youth turnout has been the theme of the day. I don't see a way this turns around unless he racks up monster numbers in the swing states that dems lost in 2016 like michigan and ohio. 

In every one of the 15 states and territories that voted Tuesday, Sanders drew a smaller share of the vote than he drew during his primary contest against Hillary Clinton four years earlier. Even in his home state of Vermont, he won only 52 percent of the vote, down from 86 percent in 2016.

Yeah, the next few weeks are going to be painful

(also people really didn't like Clinton)

Biden was actually viable in vermont with like 22% of the vote. Pretty much red flags everywhere you look tbh

Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Horrible night. Looks like Warren helped to fuck everyone over too. Her dropping out and endorsing Bernie would probably have won him Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota and Texas. But I don't suppose she ever intended to endorse him. What a pointless campaign.

Klaus wrote:

Horrible night. Looks like Warren helped to fuck everyone over too. Her dropping out and endorsing Bernie would probably have won him Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota and Texas. But I don't suppose she ever intended to endorse him. What a pointless campaign.

Couldn't you say the same about Bloomberg?

Bloomberg is not the one pretending to be a progressive. Warren is.

Mirth wrote:

Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Because he was Obamas VP. He's seen as being a big help in getting him over the line.

Klaus wrote:

Bloomberg is not the one pretending to be a progressive. Warren is.

Warren voted for Reagan and Nixon. She was a republican until the late 90's. Of course she had no interest in letting the Dems move left.

Claudius wrote:

Bernie is losing “self-identifying” Democrats by large margins. Again, it’s sad but it goes back to what I was saying about building relationships. The guy has great ideas, but when he comes into the Democratic Party and is talking about taking on the establishment, etc., rather than focus on his great ideas, he starts to turn off some people. Hopefully, the younger socialists like The Squad are watching him and know how to navigate. They often display similar tear the house down ideals, and they could also experience cell rejection at Presidential level of not careful.

It's a really annoying trait of the left, always preaching to the choir and alienating everyone else instead of attempting to bring them with you. 

This whole narrative of Warren laying down for Bernie doesn’t make sense. Again, on the previous page I listed all her accomplishments. One thing I left out was consumer financial protection bureau. I went to university in the states. We all had massive loans. When financiers were fucking over young adults with usurious practices, that’s the only place that helped my American friends out. Who else is successfully taking on big corporations and holding them to account. Sanders supporters need to end this misinformation about Warren being some wolf in sheep’s clothings. She’s all wolf. The financial sector, healthcare companies and big tech do not want to see her in power.

Klaus wrote:

Bloomberg is not the one pretending to be a progressive. Warren is.

What I meant was that if Bloomberg fucked off, his votes would end up with Biden so in effect Warren and Bloomberg are cancelling each other out. It's relevant because at some stage they both will step down but I don't think it'll end up having a dramatic impact on the race.

Claudius wrote:

This whole narrative of Warren laying down for Bernie doesn’t make sense.

She hadn't won a single state before the super tuesday and was polling worse than most of the ones that dropped out and endorsed Biden. She finished third in her own home state tonight, now that's embarrassing. She had no chance at winning anything but stayed in to fuck things up for the part of the left that did. There were 1.5 million votes or so that could have a big difference even if not all of them had gone to Sanders. Qwiss is exactly right.

Mirth wrote:
Klaus wrote:

Bloomberg is not the one pretending to be a progressive. Warren is.

What I meant was that if Bloomberg fucked off, his votes would end up with Biden so in effect Warren and Bloomberg are cancelling each other out. It's relevant because at some stage they both will step down but I don't think it'll end up having a dramatic impact on the race.

Gotcha. Yes, sure. But Bloomberg didn't fuck off so that feels irrelevant. In fact, the fact he didn't fuck off like everyone else made it even more urgent for Warren to do so if she ever had any intention of seeing someone pushing a progressive platform in the White House.

Mirth wrote:

Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Obamas VP, abd tendencies to stick to the conservative democrat lane out of loyalty and fear of big change. I think religion plays a part too. Bernie is a atheist and that doesn't fly among conservative african americans that make up the bulk of their vote. I would say also a lack of specific messaging from bernies campaign. An african american friend of mine voted biden in TX and basically said when there's a big shake-up like what bernie is proposing black folks still end up at the back of the line. He also said he felt bernie worked overtime for the latino vote, and felt like his policies were only beneficial to black people tangentially or as an afterthought. Things like M4A and tuition free college would benefit the black community immensely, but the message was delivered as a rising tide lifts all boats, and the more extreme interpretation as my friend put it was heard as 'all lives matter'. The classism over racism rhetoric just isnt received well

Thank you Mirth and Gazza. It's not easy to understand the nuts and bolts of American politics.

12 years later nothing changed

Gazza M wrote:
Mirth wrote:

Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Obamas VP, abd tendencies to stick to the conservative democrat lane out of loyalty and fear of big change. I think religion plays a part too. Bernie is a atheist and that doesn't fly among conservative african americans that make up the bulk of their vote. I would say also a lack of specific messaging from bernies campaign. An african american friend of mine voted biden in TX and basically said when there's a big shake-up like what bernie is proposing black folks still end up at the back of the line. He also said he felt bernie worked overtime for the latino vote, and felt like his policies were only beneficial to black people tangentially or as an afterthought. Things like M4A and tuition free college would benefit the black community immensely, but the message was delivered as a rising tide lifts all boats, and the more extreme interpretation as my friend put it was heard as 'all lives matter'. The classism over racism rhetoric just isnt received well

Makes sense, I'm just shocked by the degree to which Biden is supported

I personally think you cannot underestimate how much Bernies atheism hurts him among African-American voters. Think it's a bigger deal than Biden's Obama rub.

Strange given his record alright.

Klaus wrote:
Claudius wrote:

This whole narrative of Warren laying down for Bernie doesn’t make sense.

She hadn't won a single state before the super tuesday and was polling worse than most of the ones that dropped out and endorsed Biden. She finished third in her own home state tonight, now that's embarrassing. She had no chance at winning anything but stayed in to fuck things up for the part of the left that did. There were 1.5 million votes or so that could have a big difference even if not all of them had gone to Sanders. Qwiss is exactly right.

It would be interesting to poll her voters though and look at her second choices now that the choices have narrowed. I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t a 100% Bernie allocation but closer to a 60:40 Bernie: Biden allocation. She’s a attracting a lot of establishment voters, particularly women and white college educated types. Many of those might be more convinced by Biden’s ‘electability’ than Bernie’s revolution.

Also worth saying that Biden will generate a lot of funds now and he still has the Obama card to play as well. Conventional logic says that invoke the Obama's name to take on Trump but if he does get into trouble before that then being able to deploy both Barack and Michelle Obama will be effectively a get out of jail card since they're both still incredibly popular with Democrats.

Gazza M wrote:
Mirth wrote:

Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Obamas VP, abd tendencies to stick to the conservative democrat lane out of loyalty and fear of big change. I think religion plays a part too. Bernie is a atheist and that doesn't fly among conservative african americans that make up the bulk of their vote. I would say also a lack of specific messaging from bernies campaign. An african american friend of mine voted biden in TX and basically said when there's a big shake-up like what bernie is proposing black folks still end up at the back of the line. He also said he felt bernie worked overtime for the latino vote, and felt like his policies were only beneficial to black people tangentially or as an afterthought. Things like M4A and tuition free college would benefit the black community immensely, but the message was delivered as a rising tide lifts all boats, and the more extreme interpretation as my friend put it was heard as 'all lives matter'. The classism over racism rhetoric just isnt received well

Good points. Another aspect is the risk: reward issue. Based on conversations I have had with African American friends, they look at electability seriously. They know that they face a bigger risk than White friends if Trump continues to be president. He’s been openly racist in a first term where there is a threat of losing an election. What might he do in a second term where he has no controls? So they prefer the moderate candidates.

There are a lot of other under-reported dynamics going on with black voters. A lot of black voters I know are dedicated churchgoers and socially conservative, regardless of where they sit on the economic spectrum. But a post-Gingrich Republican Party is no place for a black voter, and the further left you go in the Democratic Party is also increasingly alienating. So it’s always interesting to hear the media talk about black voters, but I suspect there are at least two clusters (and it might be worth thinking of them that way even if they only constitute 4-7% of the vote each).

Oh, just saw that Jens covered atheism. 🙂

Mirth wrote:

Also worth saying that Biden will generate a lot of funds now and he still has the Obama card to play as well. Conventional logic says that invoke the Obama's name to take on Trump but if he does get into trouble before that then being able to deploy both Barack and Michelle Obama will be effectively a get out of jail card since they're both still incredibly popular with Democrats.

Biden has weathered the storm, has the momentum and if all else fails they can produce the Obamas at some big rallies near the convention to slam the door. Sadly the writing seem to be on the wall for another heartbreak for Bernie.

Jens wrote:
Mirth wrote:

Also worth saying that Biden will generate a lot of funds now and he still has the Obama card to play as well. Conventional logic says that invoke the Obama's name to take on Trump but if he does get into trouble before that then being able to deploy both Barack and Michelle Obama will be effectively a get out of jail card since they're both still incredibly popular with Democrats.

Biden has weathered the storm, has the momentum and if all else fails they can produce the Obamas at some big rallies near the convention to slam the door. Sadly the writing seem to be on the wall for another heartbreak for Bernie.

Also catching up on the news this morning, some how Biden's managed to tap into the underdog narrative this past week

I have no idea how he's spun that but I'm grudgingly impressed and it'll probably ensure a consistent turnout.

Don't think this is quite over yet, Biden in some ways hasn't been thoroughly vetted and will be subject to more (if not enough) scrutiny from here on in.

Well it’s like a boxing match where you are trying to defeat the champion or odds on favorite. You can’t afford for it to be close in any way. You go for the KO and make sure it’s out of the hands of the judges.

Sanders couldn’t do that.