Circus circa 2020: Page 31 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Circus circa 2020

Burnwinter

Agree with Coombs that it's about consistency. Personally I think it's the long consistent records of Corbyn and Sanders that made it possible for a broader group to get behind them.

If this is the start of the end for Sanders' campaign, it'll be a big task for the DSA to find someone with Sanders' appeal to push forward their rather orthodox social democratic agenda from here. People are not going to mobilise behind a 50 year old version of the same thing unless the candidate is exceptional.

The younger stars of socialism in the US like Ocasio-Cortez are not eligible to run and would meet with a reactionary response anyway.

Gazza M

good point on track record and authenticity BW. very rare to find anyone that has those

Burnwinter

I think that's why we're seeing all these extremely old candidates.

It's hard to imagine someone pushing 80 who's been saying the same thing for 40 years choosing that moment to sell out completely … people like Buttigieg are so evidently pre-sold, adept at shifting registers and appearances, networked.

Gazza M

Gazza M wrote:
california and texas are obviously key. if biden is viable in california, wins texas, and win the rest of the south as predicted, things tighten up considerably. most of the numbers classed the above scenario as 'unlikely' a week ago, but the combination of sweeping SC and buttigieg dropping out has changed the complexion of things

Pretty much everything that could go wrong for bernie, did

Mirth

God dammit

Claudius

Bernie is toast. Will get a ton of delegates out of California, but the voters have gone for electability. First electability shook the blacks and Latinos. Then it shook the women. Now the socialists can say bye bye. The media needs to stop talking about electability. It leads to this outcome: moderate white men who won’t shake shit up.

Also, exit polls suggest young voters did not turn out, which shows in Bernie’s numbers. I worked with a political party back home. One of the things we saw is that what might appear to be a youth swell on social media and events is very difficult to translate into votes. The same young people will just sit their asses home on Election Day.

QuincyAbeyie

A sad day for America. And the world, to be fair.

Claudius

One other thing that I find weird in America is this idea of low information voters. It’s typically used to describe to rural / peri-urban whites, and blacks and Latinos. Again, from home, I often found that rural voters are much more informed than you might expect. They might not buy newspapers and spend time on news websites, but they receive social media memes. When they work, they have the radio on listening to political debate and call-in programs, and then spend spare time discussing politics and development issues that impact them.

Qwiss

"Low information voters" is just classism. Same as "populism" etc

Segway

Bernie won California so all is not lost for him yet, is it?

It was a blow for him that Buttigieg dropped his candicacy since Buttigieg's voters seems to have switched to Biden.

Claudius

Bernie is losing “self-identifying” Democrats by large margins. Again, it’s sad but it goes back to what I was saying about building relationships. The guy has great ideas, but when he comes into the Democratic Party and is talking about taking on the establishment, etc., rather than focus on his great ideas, he starts to turn off some people. Hopefully, the younger socialists like The Squad are watching him and know how to navigate. They often display similar tear the house down ideals, and they could also experience cell rejection at Presidential level of not careful.

Mirth

Segway wrote:
Bernie won California so all is not lost for him yet, is it?

It was a blow for him that Buttigieg dropped his candicacy since Buttigieg's voters seems to have switched to Biden.

My understanding is that Sanders winning California was a foregone conclusion anyway. Although he'll probably end up with roughly the same number of delegates as Biden at this stage, Sanders' performance in places like Virginia and Texas will be more relevant for the rest of the nomination process. Particularly now that moderates have more or less coalesced around Biden

Gazza M

Segway wrote:
Bernie won California so all is not lost for him yet, is it?

It was a blow for him that Buttigieg dropped his candicacy since Buttigieg's voters seems to have switched to Biden.

a CA win was priced in for bernie. He'll now need to win CA by like 20 points to make up the margins, but alot of his electability argument has been punctured by losing massachusets, Minnesota, texas, and by being light years away in virginia. He'll get killed in boomer central florida 2 weeks from now as well. Inability to court the african American vote and low youth turnout has been the theme of the day. I don't see a way this turns around unless he racks up monster numbers in the swing states that dems lost in 2016 like michigan and ohio.

Mirth

In every one of the 15 states and territories that voted Tuesday, Sanders drew a smaller share of the vote than he drew during his primary contest against Hillary Clinton four years earlier. Even in his home state of Vermont, he won only 52 percent of the vote, down from 86 percent in 2016.

Yeah, the next few weeks are going to be painful

(also people really didn't like Clinton)

Gazza M

Biden was actually viable in vermont with like 22% of the vote. Pretty much red flags everywhere you look tbh

Mirth

Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Klaus

Horrible night. Looks like Warren helped to fuck everyone over too. Her dropping out and endorsing Bernie would probably have won him Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota and Texas. But I don't suppose she ever intended to endorse him. What a pointless campaign.

Mirth

Klaus wrote:
Horrible night. Looks like Warren helped to fuck everyone over too. Her dropping out and endorsing Bernie would probably have won him Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota and Texas. But I don't suppose she ever intended to endorse him. What a pointless campaign.

Couldn't you say the same about Bloomberg?

Klaus

Bloomberg is not the one pretending to be a progressive. Warren is.

Qwiss

Mirth wrote:
Can someone explain why the African American demographic tends to vote for Biden?

Because he was Obamas VP. He's seen as being a big help in getting him over the line.

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