Mirth wrote:

It has but then that's exactly why invading Ukraine was a terrible idea - it unambiguously reinforces that Europe has a choice between the US and Russia (and China from a trade perspective). And the majority of countries that are already in NATO would rather retain that membership, particularly those that are in Eastern Europe.

Prior to this, NATO had lost its way to a degree and there was plenty calling for an independent European security framework. That's what Russia should have pushed for but now that's unlikely to transpire.

I think this is a correct take.

Consider for instance how Russia have been threatening Finland and Sweden for years not to join NATO. Ironically NATO membership has never had any significant backing in Sweden, either public or political, but I reckon Russia have finally pushed the issue to a point where both countries might not have a choice anymore. Both of them have comparatively small populations with underfunded armies trying to defend large landmasses.

I moved to Visby on Gotland about a year ago; it's this small place on an island in the middle of the Baltic Sea that is mostly famous for the way it has incorporated medieval ruins into its modern cityscape. The whole place looks like something out of a Harry Potter movie. 3-4 times per week since I moved here I've heard low-flying airforce patrols, often at night, roll in over Visby like thunder as a response to the Russian fighter jets that have been violating Swedish and Finnish airspace for years. I can hear them right now as I'm typing this. This all started years before Russia began to mobilise troops to move against Ukraine.

In the past three months or so things have deteriorated further. Tanks have on several occasions been patrolling the harbour and rolling through the cobblestone streets right outside the University, which has been a pretty surreal experience. American military has been seen regularly around the airport since last fall, invited to perform tactical drills with Swedish and Finnish forces as a response to the increased tensions in the Baltic region.

This island has about 60 000 inhabitants and virtually no military protection whatsoever aside from when politicians want to make a point by deploying tanks. Strategically it would be key to control the Baltic region with its size and its close proximity to big cities like Stockholm, Helsingfors, Riga and Tallinn. It's also located right next to the Russian gas pipeline that extends down to the continent.

There's no one in their right mind who actually think that Russia would invade an EU country; even half a year ago the idea was too ridiculous to pay any thought. And yet that's exactly what they're now threatening to do on live tv. I can't make sense of the strategy. Maybe it really is a massive miscalculation on Russia's part, but they're forcing the rest of Scandinavia towards a Western military block instead of away from it.

You live on Gotland? FFS that's like the most beautiful place I've ever been to

My grandparents live in Sweden, but I haven't really been keeping up with what's going on in the country beyond fighting with them over SD. Hearing that fighter jets and tanks are now a common sight in what might be the most idyllic place on Earth is harrowing. As is Russia threatening Finland, where an ex-girlfriend of mine lives.

And I agree with you and Mirth, all this is going to do is push the rest of Europe towards the US, countries on Russia's borders into the NATO and EU and make US companies a shitload of money. And everyone I've spoken to, among them my old sociology professor, sees it pretty much the same way. It really doesn't make any sense. And that's what makes it even scarier.

That's the big concern though, the severity of the sanctions plus his failure to really make headway into Ukraine with their tactics so far could easily lead to more desperate measures being taken, not least a more aggressive approach to taking Ukraine. And I know it's mostly just posturing but their nuclear deterrent being put on special standby is frightening.

You'd like to think the summit will lead to common sense prevailing but without a major climbdown by one side I don't see it.

Kurt Eisner wrote:

You live on Gotland? FFS that's like the most beautiful place I've ever been to

Same I'm still fairly new to all this so I'm just walking around in constant amazement. It's like balsam for the soul. I haven't even gotten riled up over the cold this winter like I usually do. I had such a bad time both before and during the first year of the pandemic, and I felt that I needed something new... new job, new part-time studies, new scenery. It's been the best year of my grownup life.

Kurt Eisner wrote:

My grandparents live in Sweden, but I haven't really been keeping up with what's going on in the country beyond fighting with them over SD. Hearing that fighter jets and tanks are now a common sight in what might be the most idyllic place on Earth is harrowing. As is Russia threatening Finland, where an ex-girlfriend of mine lives.

It's been a very surreal experience. On one hand you've got this tiny Lord of the Rings village with its adorably crooked little houses, church ruins and medieval walls that have stood for 10 or 11 centuries, and on the other hand there are tanks and patrols moving around in the streets. It's difficult to parse both realities at the same time.

I'd read in the papers about the increased Russian interference, but mainland Sweden isn't overly concerned with what's going on at Gotland normally. I used to live on the coast that faced Denmark and the Atlantic before, and they have their own concerns over how they should handle people arriving from continental Europe.

I have no love for NATO at all and I still think it would be a mistake to apply for membership (or accept one if it were offered), but since moving here I understand why the question gets asked much more frequently.

Magnificent piece of engineering destroyed by a complete nutcase.

Many reports coming in now that Putin has mobilised his nukes...

goon wrote:

You'd like to think the summit will lead to common sense prevailing but without a major climbdown by one side I don't see it.

Not going pretend I know who any of those people are but if there's no one senior at the meeting then it's just for for the cameras.

jones wrote:

All masks are off

Daniel Hannan is a fucking idiot.

However, this war is a step change for me as well despite having no European ancestors or anything of the kind. There was a general hope to me that Europe was able to transition from being one of the most aggressive, wartorn continents in the world to a relatively peaceful one. If this bunch could at least come to an uneasy truce through the efforts of all sides then why not anywhere else in the world? The EU in particular is a roadmap for plenty of regional blocs, particularly ASEAN.

Unfortunately this backslide is being noticed elsewhere in the world and will be used to justify the actions of other strong men.

Mirth wrote:

jones wrote:

All masks are off

Daniel Hannan is a fucking idiot.

However, this war is a step change for me as well despite having no European ancestors or anything of the kind. There was a general hope to me that Europe was able to transition from being one of the most aggressive, wartorn continents in the world to a relatively peaceful one. If this bunch could at least come to an uneasy truce through the efforts of all sides then why not anywhere else in the world? The EU in particular is a roadmap for plenty of regional blocs, particularly ASEAN.

Unfortunately this backslide is being noticed elsewhere in the world and will be used to justify the actions of other strong men.

Where are you from?!

jones wrote:

Mirth wrote:

Daniel Hannan is a fucking idiot.

However, this war is a step change for me as well despite having no European ancestors or anything of the kind. There was a general hope to me that Europe was able to transition from being one of the most aggressive, wartorn continents in the world to a relatively peaceful one. If this bunch could at least come to an uneasy truce through the efforts of all sides then why not anywhere else in the world?

Unfortunately this backslide is being noticed elsewhere in the world and will be used to justify the actions of other strong men.

The big difference for me is that this is actually a non-Western country starting (response or not, the initial attacks came from Russia) the fighting, which because of the lopsided economic playing field can quickly deteriorate and draw out worse options on any side. If you look at it this hasn't happened for a pretty long time (Georgia actually attacked Russia in 2008, the Crimea was annexed peacefully, can't think of any other instances right now).

When NATO bombed Yugoslavia - a European country - there was no UN mandate either but it never felt like anything would come out of it except for the people living there, because clearly no one is able to hold the West accountable for what it does. With Russia now there's little telling how long it'll be drawn out and how many more repercussions will be felt by everyone.

Hmm - I don't think it's as simple as saying Georgia attacked Russia in 2008. It was a culmination of deteriorating relations for a decade at least and who 'started' it is still not clear to me. But I believe the greater power always has a responsibility in that case

Also China and India have been killing each others men for about 2 years now and seizing land - it's just not quite labelled as war because no one wants this kind of attention directed to the dispute but I guarantee if either side showed weakness things would escalate.

Klaus wrote:

Same I'm still fairly new to all this so I'm just walking around in constant amazement. It's like balsam for the soul. I haven't even gotten riled up over the cold this winter like I usually do. I had such a bad time both before and during the first year of the pandemic, and I felt that I needed something new... new job, new part-time studies, new scenery. It's been the best year of my grownup life.

I genuinely can't think of a better place to heal the soul, enjoy it mate, I'm fucking jealous I can imagine the pandemic must have hit particularly hard in the scandinavian winter, my grandparents moved to the city because they couldn't handle the isolation in the remote village they lived in before, Långsand near Skutskär it was, so they got an appartment in Gävle.

It's been a very surreal experience. On one hand you've got this tiny Lord of the Rings village with its adorably crooked little houses, church ruins and medieval walls that have stood for 10 or 11 centuries, and on the other hand there are tanks and patrols moving around in the streets. It's difficult to parse both realities at the same time.

I'd read in the papers about the increased Russian interference, but mainland Sweden isn't overly concerned with what's going on at Gotland normally. I used to live on the coast that faced Denmark and the Atlantic before, and they have their own concerns over how they should handle people arriving from continental Europe.

I have no love for NATO at all and I still think it would be a mistake to apply for membership (or accept one if it were offered), but since moving here I understand why the question gets asked much more frequently.

That makes sense, I've spent my entire life isolated from any threat of war or invasion. Comfortable as I am, I can denounce NATO all day, and will probably continue to do so, but once you see the instruments of war on your doorstep, it becomes a different ballgame. The fact that Finland and Sweden need to even consider joining a military union just to protect their border is so fucking discouraging.

It's also such a shame that this will slam the door completely shut for any kind of friendly relationship with Russia. I love russian literature, I love russian music, the food, the culture and the people there that I've met. It's such a culturally and historically significant part of european culture. Gerhard Schröder is a greedy and corrupt cunt of the highest order, but I always thought he had a point when he insisted on improving relationships between Germany and Russia. That's an impossibility now and for the foreseeable future. Get fucking fucked Putin.

jones wrote:

All masks are off

That's fucking despicable, who allowed that absolute cretin to publish anything ever?

flobaba wrote:

First night of good sleep for me since this all started was yesterday after my younger brother made it across the border from Uzhhorod into Slovakia. It’s been really stressful but thankful it’s almost over now - his flight leaves from Kosice tomorrow. Had been begging him for the past month to leave the country, but he kept insisting it was all calm. He only agreed to move out West from Kharkiv (where his university is) under immense pressure from the family, and now he understands what the hassle was about. None of his friends who waited till the bombs started landing have been able to leave Kharkiv. He is extremely fortunate. Got separated from his girlfriend, but she’s also luckily made it to Poland.

So many lives just thrown into chaos and disarray so suddenly. Over what?

so happy that your brother and his gf are safe.

HomeSteak wrote:

Managed to get two families in, they work with a friend for a German IT company. He contacted me after they managed to run, gonna pick them up today or tomorrow. My apartment is not 100% done but still...better then nothing for them.

incredible stuff, big ups to you

im by no means an expert in russian policy, but it seems like the single biggest variable here is china. they haven't outright condemned the invasion, as best i can tell, but havent really supported it either. if china is going to fully back russia, that obviously changes the global equation.

China will never back Russia. They want to sit back and enjoy the benefits. They don't want to see a strong Russia because they still view them as a threat on their border.

They are on the fence currently and will just support whoever that is winning the global fight.

Klaus wrote:

HomeSteak wrote:

Managed to get two families in, they work with a friend for a German IT company. He contacted me after they managed to run, gonna pick them up today or tomorrow. My apartment is not 100% done but still...better then nothing for them.

Good on you mate. How are things on your side of the border right now?

Things are calm, people going to the border and picking imigrants up, and giving them a place to stay. The thing is not a lot of them want to stay here lol. And even the ones that want to stay, they don't stay where I am. They are staying in the east, close to Ukraine, Moldova as its easier...they know the language. The people that come here, in the western part of Romania, the people I have at my place as well, they are moving on in a few days to Austria, Germany and so on.

jones wrote:

Honestly I thought when it comes to racism I've seen a bit but this is some wild shit not that I didn't believe God knows how many whites felt that way but why does everyone all of a sudden feel the urge to compare beautiful Ukrainians to the savage negroes and Musulmans where it's not just common but expected for them to die in wars.

It's sad to me, the intuitive response is surely the other way round, to ask why this support, this humane journalism haven't been offered in the cases of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Sudan and more? And the answer is clear: those were either the west's wars or not its problem … but since that answer's too reflective, they will search for a different rationale with terms like "civilisation", or talk about "peoples not used to conflict" … the contradictions of this ideology are repellent, especially considering their human cost.

There have been reports, I'm not sure how accurate, of African Ukrainian citizens getting turned back at the Polish border while white Ukrainians pass. Even if not accurate, the admission of refugees from Ukraine sits alongside the building of border walls and detention facilities.

Around the time of the 2015 "migrant crisis" it seemed like white identity politics had metastasised at the EU level. You had key documents like Macron's "open letter to Europe" dwelling on "unity", borders and security, while Frontex had been militarised and headquartered in chauvinist Poland, Triton had been converted into a turnbacks operation and the EU had set up that evil body swap deal with Turkey to try to make it worthless for refugees to cross the Aegean seeking asylum.

This was all happening at the time the identitarian movement was setting up or expanding its parties in many European countries, based on the theories of people like the French New Right.

The way it seems to work there's an incremental rationalisation of the rollout of policy and ideology with an effective racism embedded in its universalism in the EU. The rollout comes from the liberal centre, but concedes ground to what's compatible across Europe's far right constituencies: racism, Islamophobia and a "Fortress Europe" outlook.

The bits about "Will our border be at Calais or Greece?" that preceded the Brexit vote show how chauvinist and centrifugal politics in the EU pull the supra-state position to the right. Perhaps this problem could have a different format today if twenty years ago Brussels had been able to find an accord with Turkey and accept its interest in EU membership in the period before AKP rule. At the time questions like Turkey's unwillingness to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide were raised, but now Turkey's a dictatorship which is losing its secular history.