Summa 26 TW: Page 240 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One more in the Tolly

Summa 26 TW

Qwiss

I think goals are goals, at least in the CL and League. Plenty of Alvarez CL opponents are better than 75% of La Liga anyway. 8 league goals was a bit of an outlier for him but so was 17 so you'd probably even it out to around 12ish league goals a season as his norm. With that in mind as good a player as he is I'm not sure we are better if he's leading the line. Kind of interested to see what he'd do on the left but its far from his natural position and I don't think Arteta has ever really shown an aptitude for getting his attackers to work in different positions the way he has with defenders.

awooga83

Qwiss this we are looking at spending similar to vini and I don't think his output makes him worth the valuation we wrote have to look at and add he doesn't want to come I think it's not worthwhile to get him.

daredevil

Qwiss

Exactly - I don't think the logic holds up, or is not being applied consistently. If you're going to discount goals against CL opponents because they're weak, then why also not discount goals against relegation candidates in the PL?

This whole discounting thing will never be applied consistently because there's no formula to weigh goals based on opponent quality so you're just picking and choosing what goals count to suit your argument.

awooga83

Pepe LeFrits it's in the equation I just think so many of the champions League games now are very different they don't matter teams are a bit less cautious and if a game goes against them they aren't fighting to the same extent as knock outs etc so you can get blow out results. By all means look at the latter stage, quarters on for me, goals and assess the type of goals and whether whatever circumstances they were scored in make it valuable and equally worth the 120m plus wages that we might have to pay.

awooga83

daredevil no because the quality of the prem I think is higher then the lower tiers of the champions League so there would be genuine jeopardy for most teams from the off if the champions League was at the same level at the bottom. As it is pretty much every big side that matters is going to get through to the knockout and that's when the tournament really gets started and you see more competitive matches

daredevil

awooga83

That's a lopsided comparison. If the argument is about the quality of the weaker teams, then the proper comparison is between the weaker teams in the Champions League and the weaker teams in the Premier League — not the weaker Champions League teams against the Premier League as a whole.

There isn't meaningful jeopardy in every Premier League game either. Plenty of games are against substantially weaker opposition or take place when one side has relatively little at stake. At the back end of a season, when you're facing teams with nothing to play for and are on holiday, why should those goals count? The opposition is on the beach and has nothing to play for, shouldn't we discount those too?

So if you're going to discount Champions League goals on the basis of opposition quality or lack of jeopardy, then logically you also have to discount goals scored against weaker Premier League sides in comparable circumstances.

QuincyAbeyie

Only close to Vini if you for some reason ignore wages.

Qwiss

daredevil yeah you can do it for pretty much anyone but its just sophistry.

QuincyAbeyie not quite at Vini levels but Alvarez on his current wage would already be one of our top player and you can be sure he'd be wanting a healthy bump on that. He'd probably come in at or above our current top wage which is another issue to think about. I mean you can tell Rice, Odegaard and Saka that Vini is a superstar and on a different wage, don't think you can justify that with Alvarez.

awooga83

daredevil but the prem game does have an impact on the latter outcome. We can beat a team say PSG and if they make it through it's doesn't contribute in anyway to the situation in the knock out whereas the prem will whoever you play dropped points from results directly affects the final standing. If the prem did one league and then something else it would be similar. It's the nature of that tournament that makes it have less edge.

I'm terms of so I read much into a game like Coventry probably not I'm happy we got the result but I don't weight the attacking output from that game highly at least now because I don't know whether Coventry are just a bit rubbish.

Ray

Vini as well averaged around 15 league goals a season.

Qwiss

Ray as well as what?

Ray

Qwiss as in similar numbers to Alvarez who on average scored these similar numbers as well.

RowJimmy

So if this were the NBA we'd have +/- (rather than simply points scored) adjusted both for quality of opposition and for teammates on the pitch at the same time. Goals scored is not a very good stat. (And yes, I know you need to score goals to win - the team needs to score goals.)

Qwiss

RowJimmy its a pretty important stat for CFs. Especially for us as we aren't filled with goal scorers in other positions.

JazzG

TambourineMan I think the home games especially when they have Rodri and 60%+ possession will be harder for him. But I do agree he'd do a lot better in Spain, here he has no physical superiority over CBs whereas he would in Spain.

He needs space and time to get his shots away, he struggles in that respect here.

Pepe LeFrits

I see Spurs have sealed the Savinho deal, 75 rising to 85 for a guy who cost 30m 2 years ago. Marmoush close too, for somewhere between 50 to 75 despite costing City 60m. Frankfurt should sue

JazzG

Claudius 29 G/A in your last 32 champions league games doesn’t exactly shout flaky.

Top 10 players in the CL last season by G/A

Kvara
Mbappe
Kane
Alvarez
Vini Jr
Gordon
Olise
Luis Díaz
Dembele
Osimhen

Yeah so I don't buy this idea that CL stats are just pure stat padding, that is a pretty decent list of players on that list.

Mirth

JazzG Champions league has been watered down but I'd still put it above league stats. However I'd say looking at goalscoring records during the knock outs is a better barometer.

Claudius

JazzG Top 10 players in the CL last season by G/A

Kvara
Mbappe
Kane
Alvarez
Vini Jr
Gordon
Olise
Luis Díaz
Dembele
Osimhen

Yeah so I don't buy this idea that CL stats are just pure stat padding, that is a pretty decent list of players on that list

Group of shameless stats padders one and all.

lorddulaarsenal

I think Alvarez joins he plays centrally.

I think once Martinelli goes we’ll sign a left sided attacker. Maybe Ndiaye, Fernandez-Pardo or Paixao

JazzG

Mirth Last season he was out injured from around March onwards but the previous season he scored 17 league goals for Atletico. I think that is a more accurate representation of his quality as a player. His stats under City are mainly him being used as rotation option and playing under Haaland but still weren't bad.

Qwiss

Ray Alvarez has 45 league goals in the last 4 seasons. Closer to 11 average.

samthegooner

I think people in here are underrating Alvarez’s talent by a good margin due to the media circus around him at the moment. The league goals last year are certainly a valid objection but if you watched Atletico play, Alvarez was needed to basically be a 10 and run their attack while also being a goal scorer. I thought he did a good job and was the most dynamic player on the pitch in a lot of the games I watched, including their league phase game against us. He caused us the most trouble in the Champions League group phase IMO and was everywhere, including rocking the crossbar or post on a really nice shot from distance. I think if you put him in a team with Odegaard, Saka and Bruno where he won’t need to be the creative fulcrum and instead can focus more on output (goals and assists), he will be much more productive. I see him as a false 9 but also see him as a left inside forward like how Tzolis played against Cardiff - constantly slaloming into the middle looking for shots or slipped passes inside to runners. I clearly don’t want him to come if he doesn’t want to be here but if he moves on from Barca and says he’ll come then I think he will take our attack to another level, while maintaining our out of possession intensity.

Qwiss

samthegooner he's obviously a top player but I don't think he naturally fits as a 9 or a LW and I'm a little worried we'd be squeezing a square peg into a round hole again on the left. If you were managing Odes minutes I think him behind Gyok would be absolutely filthy against most PL teams but are we really going to pay record breaking money for a guy with no real natural first team position? His talent is not in question, the fit is and of course the desire to play here. We have a great balance now both on and off the pitch. I am a little reluctant to change that too much. Wirtz should be a warning sign there, Liverpool signed a big talent who didn't fit a winning system and its totally flopped. If we sign Alvarez I'd be excited and worried in equal measure. He's not like Vini who fit an obvious gap in the squad and would have just slotted into our system. Alvarez would require a much bigger adjustment.

Ray

Qwiss and Vini has 52 in the same period give or take similar amounts. With Alvarez doing it in the PL too

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