Premier League 25/26 Discussion : Page 80 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

Premier League 25/26 Discussion

Qwiss

awooga83 I don't mind the switch to defence, its worked for us plenty of times but I think you need to balance it and he should have brought on a couple more fresh players to give us a little more. Nwaneri to carry the ball after we cleared it instead of just giving it back to them, Norgaard for a bit more in midfield so we didn't just give them the entire game. We didn't need like for like subs but Saka and Trossard were worn out. We had one decent outball before their goal, Rice and Saka broke but Saka didn't have the energy to make it count and when he lost the ball he couldn't even make a recovery run to get back and defend. That's where Nwaneri would have been better.

awooga83

Qwiss yeah and it feels this shouldn't be some big revelation really and why I still have some questions about how Arteta approaches these moments and even an element of not wanting to use his bench or trust them to manage the game out.

mohan

It's a lesson for Arteta. I think he will get better as we go deeper into season. Atleast that's the hope I have.

Sicario2

mohan lesson? He’s been here nearly 6 years!

mohan

Sicario2 what has 6 years got to do with the learnings from this game? I am just talking about this particular game. we are a different team this year. He rightfully assumed our defense will hold after going 2-1 up. But we did not... utilization of subs or keeping the attack going instead of trying to shut shop might have pushed us over the line for this game. that is the lesson I hope he learns.

RocktheCasbah

I think if just one of the forwards we have who are currently injured were available on Saturday night, we'd have seen them for the last 20 minutes. Of course you can make a case for Nwaneri to get on, but I'm not gonna eat Arteta's lunch for not doing that. And it certainly wasn't the game for Max Dowman given the physical nature of it.

We were a David Raya judgement call away from winning the game, I'm not gonna eat his lunch either. It's just football.

Qwiss

RocktheCasbah definitely wasn't a game for Max or Harry. Was way too physical and niggly. Raya made a mistake but maybe give him and the defence a few less opportunities to make mistakes would be my thinking. Obviously this is all nit picking as we are top of the table and have been amazing defensively but I don't think there is much harm discussing what went wrong on Saturday. That's what football forums are for.

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert he's in good form and absolutely tore Liverpool apart but I'd want to see him doing it consistently to be envious. If he didn't have that freak up front carrying the goal scoring I think people would look at his 3 goals the last 2 seasons and 1 this season and really question is output.

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie There was also the ball falling pretty sweetly to Saliba in the area, who failed to get over the top of his strike when he arguably had enough time to take a touch. He's a centre half but it was undoubtedly a decent chance.

USArsenal

Burnwinter

Yeah, he snatched at it too quickly and skied it from like 14 yards

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Martinelli needs help Titi

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

Very envious of City having a player like Doku. He was being slammed last season but it was clear he has a couple of truly elite attributes any team would kill to have in a wide forward.

SimplyTheBest

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert what we’re seeing there is the result of Pep changing Man City’s style into one that involves sitting a bit deeper and looking for transitions. Suddenly, Doku and Haaland have way more space to run into.

USArsenal

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

We have a player sort of like him already in our team. He's just injured at the moment. (someone who is good at dribbling and can be tricky with the ball with not enough end product, but finding their feet).

Meatwad

this is why i would prefer liverpool chasing us over abu dhabi.

josh needs to pull out that kroenke and walton money that he has access to and start paying these fuckers to officiate exhibition mls games and nba and nfl games too.

MistaT

“ Michael Oliver has officiated ~ 50 City matches without a single City red card. There is a less than 0.1% chance that this could happen randomly over the same period as another team (Arsenal, funnily enough) getting 8 red cards from him.”

awooga83

I mean not easy to know how reliable those stats are as the author admits he felt Liverpool were hard done by that's why he did the analysis. Not too mention it success Liverpool have been significantly disadvantaged more then Arsenal so it counters the other position that we are getting hard done by.

I don't fully understand that red card probability calculation above. I tried to see if there was anything else and canon stats did some analysis on January regarding the 8 arsenal reds which he stated
"Using this and 8 red cards for 55 matches now looks like a massive outlier 2.37 mean absolute deviations from the expected mean. This is still just short of the statistical significance threshold at the 0.05 p-value level but is very very close (0.08 here).

This isn’t exactly a satisfying answer to say this is an outlier but still not such an outlier to not be random chance at this point but that is where the data points right now."

So the Arsenal ones seem to be in line with normal variation although he did mention the city ones look less likely

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Awooga doesn’t believe in all this! It all evens out!

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lol, was just hitting you up buddy

awooga83

-- haha I believe in statistical
variation so I accept that some people will be either side of the line in a normal distribution which although annoying does not suggest there is a motive against you. Hence the canon stats article which essentially concluded that how arsenal had been reffed, at least when he did the analysis, did not hit the statistically significant threshold so how Arsenal had been treated did not yet fall outside what could be expected.

My wider point was the person doing the analysis went in with the view I want to prove Liverpool have been disadvantaged more then other clubs which makes me less confident in it's output and I don't fully get the expected penalty calculation aspect.

banduan

There's some dodgy stats reading in there. I think we won't get real "proof" until someone does a study going through all decisions with a fine-toothed comb.

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