Sicario2 - Tier 1 We all looked back at the summer of 2015 when things were going well post back to back FA Cup wins we didn’t sign anyone (bar Cech) and look how that turned out for Wenger. Same year we should have won the title. The current holders (Chelsea) were having a mare and a team you didn’t expect it won in the end. Sound familiar?

I don't think we can compare 2015 with where we are now. We hadn't seriously challenged for a title for around a decade at that point.

But as you allude to, the same people responsible for disappointing you this season were responsible for raising your expectations in the first place.

History may repeat itself but I don't believe it's a given.

    I thought this was interesting. there was something about our pressing that wasn't passing the eye test for me this season which I've mentioned on here before, and it's interesting to see these low numbers compared to the rest of the top 6. I don't have the comparative data from last season to see if there's been a relative drop off from what we were doing last season.

    The sprints aren’t surprising. Aligns very well with the constant complaints that we are boring.
    What would be interesting would be to overlay that data with average possession time and attack speed versus last season. We are probably holding onto the ball longer and doing less. But also means our opponents can’t do anything with it.

    I’ll try find shooting data I saw the other day which was very interesting. If you break a shot into component bits: frequency, quality (xG) and performance (vs xG), we do extremely well on the last two metrics and are the best in the league. It’s frequency where we turn into a mid table team. We’ve over-optimised for quality vs quantity

    it's not the way we play that's breaking our players. It's not rotating them.

      banduan or even just being able to pull them off at 80 minutes. You can see how tired they all are form 70 minutes on. That’s schedule. And having some useful forwards to come on at 70 minutes would make a big difference. Rest for starters and a new challenge for defenders

        So we are actually outperformed our xG this season? Suggests our problem isn't finishing goals but creating chances.

          JazzG Suggests our problem isn't finishing goals but creating chances.

          In Opta's definition - yes. But looking at stats, unless I'm mistaken, it's not defined as a chance unless a player shoots. I don't necessarily agree with that definition , I think you can create very good chances without getting a shot off (although they're harder to define).

          Claudius has mentioned that we don't shoot as much as we should, but is this because we don't get into positions to do so or are we too hesitant to shoot? Probably a mix of both.

              Looking at the juice Arteta has squeezed from this squad so far I would actually say this is one of the best seasons of all time.

              QuincyAbeyie For me we don't create enough, the majority of our creativity comes from Saka. When he is shut out we have struggled to create chances, recent weeks we've found other solutions but that problem still remains imo.

              Another thing is we have no power in transition. When we move the ball forward it is slow and measured, compare that to Liverpool who at times have cut through teams with how quick they get the ball forward and get themselves into shooting opportunities. Which kind of ties in with what Claud is saying about us not shooting as much, a lot of the time the opposition are already back and in position meaning shots are harder

                3rd season in a row that I believe we have outperformed xG. Like @JazzG said, if we could just create more chances, our attacking output has the potential to skyrocket. And that's saying something since we are still scoring a lot of goals. I really do feel like adding a left winger who creates more than Martinelli would do wonders for the squad. Just someone who can consistently take on their man and cause the defense to collapse (not just beat them to the byline and cross) could really open up a ton of chances and also likely decrease the burden on Saka. The right signings this summer combined with a full preseason with no international tourneys could really be the recipe for something special next year.

                  Creativity is a problem, both this season and in general.

                  It's only a few months since much of our fanbase was crying out for a 17 year old novice to be included in the first team to add some sorely lacking creativity when we were at our tedious, insipid worst.

                  That has been somewhat improved with the return of Odegaard, but the issue of creative burden being too concentrated remains. And even when Saka returns it will still remain.

                    JazzG understat has us just below our xG, barely. Not enough to even think about.

                    Anyway as I've said over and over our problem is not creating chances its taking them. Every time Jesus, Havertz or Odegaard pass when they should have shot it doesn't count towards our xG. The chance was still created though, they just never tried to take it. Or when a ball is fizzed just past a player who nearly connects at the back post, this doesn't count towards xG.

                      Tam funnily enough I'm just looking at the xA for the team and Rice has higher xA than Odegaard but he's also the one with the biggest gap between assists and xA. Trossards also ahead of Ode. Now obviously Rice has played a good bit more but he's still pulling his weight. And Trossard has played only a little more. Martinelli similar minutes and just behind Ode. Really we aren't doing terribly. Saka is miles ahead on everything despite less minutes than all those players.

                      Also checked Liverpool for comparison. Its really mostly Salah on everything for them. Although Trent has quite good xA. If both leave this summer they'll struggle big time.

                        A lot of what folks are saying here can be measured with data. The big risk sometimes is we overuse xG or xA to explain everything that is happening, when there is a lot more activity leading to a goal. Variety of useful metrics to eyeball after a game that will tell you what was happening

                        Did we win? Look at the score
                        What was the overall quality of all our scoring chances in the game? Look at xG
                        Did we do well with those shots? Look at conversion rate or shot accuaracy
                        How good we were at setting up shots? Look at key passes
                        Did we get upfield towards the opposition box? Variety of metrics here, including field tilt, touches in the opposition box, progressive carries and progressive passes

                        Helpful to look at all of these, not just xG, especially given how noisy xG is in the small sample setting of a single game.  

                        samthegooner 3rd season in a row that I believe we have outperformed xG.

                        QuincyAbeyie In Opta's definition - yes. But looking at stats, unless I'm mistaken, it's not defined as a chance unless a player shoots.

                        Seems perfectly possible to me we're in an uncanny region of these measurements of our supposed number and quality of chances, and our supposed chance conversion.

                        Anyone truly think our forwards have finished well? My eyes say different. A teenager joins the XI and the sloppiness of Jesus, Havertz, Øde and Martinelli stands out even more.

                            I think the presence of multiple players that aren't amazing finishers like you just mentioned (Havertz, Jesus, Odegaard) also amplifies their individual misses. If we had 1-2 more guys who were lights out finishers in the squad, there wouldn't be as much of a reliance on the chances that fall to these guys and while they'd still be disappointing misses, I don't think they'd carry the weight in our minds as they do now. All of the advanced stats still back up that Havertz statistically is a bang average finisher for top strikers - he's been right at his xG both seasons at Arsenal and barring his last season at Chelsea, has either equalled or outperformed his xG for the rest of his career. This usually is the mark of a good striker (and yes, I agree its an imperfect statistic @Claudius but for now its been the best reflection of chance quality) but when you need him to be the guy who is always finishing off our limited chances, those misses become so much more amplified.

                            I'm a big believer that if we add a pacy creator on the wing (Barcola/Williams/Semenyo) and a more traditional 9 with better shooting technique and finishing, Havertz's productivity in particular will skyrocket as he's a great associative player and the burden of goalscoring will be lighter on his shoulders. Figuring out ways to get more finishing chances for Saka/Nwaneri/Martinelli/new 9 needs to be our #1 focus next year.

                            The emergence of MLS and Nwaneri alone means this season is actually 1 to look back on quite fondly lol.

                            The only thing better than winning trophies is seeing our youngsters move from academy to first team and making a real impact ❤️

                            I can remember the 1982-83 season. Went to Highbury to watch us wallop Luton. But we finished 10th. Won 16 and lost 16. That was pretty awful.

                            I feel your frustration Sicario but there have been far worse seasons than this. Wenger had worse seasons than this. Emery and Arteta too.

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