New Year New Game: Brentford vs Arsenal 17:30 UK Time.: Page 11 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

New Year New Game: Brentford vs Arsenal 17:30 UK Time.

Burnwinter

MistaT Is it at time of the shot?

There's both xG and "post shot xG", but the usual one is before the shot is taken.

There are many flavours of this dubious stuff.

QuincyAbeyie

Looking at goals conceded from specific shots seems like poor use of data. Yes, Mbeumo's goal might've come from 0,06 xG, but Brentford created 0,25 xG aside from that shot as well. Most shots have a low xG, but the cumulative amount is the number of goals you're expected to concede. Whether that's 9 0,1 xG shots or one 0,9 xG shot will result in the same expecations. Whether that specific shot had high xG is less interesting than how much we manage to limit the xG of our opponents.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie Exactly. It’s bad use of xG. You want to use it over a long time. Like if I flipped a coin 4 times, I might get 4 heads. Cos shit happens. But over 40 flips, should be ₅₀/50

Burnwinter

The aggregates are more meaningful, but if we persistently conceded goals from lower xG situations versus higher xG situations, over time it would suggest the concept was misrepresenting those situations.

xG is presumably set up so that aggregate expected goals should approach aggregate goals over time given the body of prior data, otherwise it'd be a bit weird. Perhaps Claude or Quincy can confirm that.

Mbeumo's near post strike was both clever and well executed, so it's a goal. I'd be interested to see the post shot / goal frame analysis on it.

Qwiss

Burnwinter Mbeumo's near post strike was both clever and well executed, so it's a goal. I'd be interested to see the post shot / goal frame analysis on it.

It was also really poor from Calafiori and Raya. Unusual from the latter, somewhat understandable from the former who hasn't really had a chance to put a run together and settle in the team/league.

MistaT

I agree that XG is best used over large sample sizes.

I just don’t buy that Mbuemo only scores 1 in 20 when he gets that shot (whether through the legs or curled).

Don Pacifico

Having skimmed through this match thread, there's a distinctly different vibe in the comments during the 1st half vs post-match. Can't help but feel this is reflective of the fanbase's impatience at the moment - would love us not to be so quick to write both thr players and the team in general off.

I'll get off my high horse now...

Burnwinter

Don Pacifico Can't help but feel this is reflective of the fanbase's impatience at the moment

We're suffering from anxiety with Saka out and having regularly struggled to score. It's quite hard watching Jesus and Martinelli start together as we've learnt from experience they often don't deliver the end product.

That said, people are very apt to slag off a returning Calafiori, or Ødegaard having an off day. ..

flobaba

Don Pacifico stay on it. It's annoying to see people (who should know better) melt down preemptively, unnecessarily, at the slightest set back. Keep the faith. Let Arsenal and Arteta cook.

Don Pacifico

Burnwinter That said, people are very apt to slag off a returning Calafiori, or Ødegaard having an off day. ..

Yeah, I think it's more this that I'm referring to. Merino also seemed to fall within that bracket too. For players who are either new or generally proven performers (and coming back from injuries), it seems hasty to be quite so dismissive. Sounds like a lot of the squad also had had the bug that kept Havertz out of the game (plus Ode probably suffering from being a new father).

Overall, I think we can cut most players a lot more slack than they're getting at the moment.

Burnwinter

If we can pull out a win against Brighton it will have been a tidy festive season to make up for the painful points dropped in December. Let's see.

Drawing with Everton was disgusting and the bad taste has lingered

Claudius

Burnwinter we are already on a really good run of form. We just had our best December ever in terms of total number of wins recorded. Team has a tough schedule and is delivering
Overall anxiety means folks can’t just enjoy their football moment. Even if we were first in the league, a draw would be met with a groan that we aren’t good enough.

Burnwinter

Claudius I think we roughly agree, with the exception that I clearly recall us missing out on the title by two points last season, so I'm not keen to hold up a finger to the breeze and declare "well actually, a home draw to an Everton side that averages less than a point per game can be considered good in the overall context and upward trajectory of our aggregate expected major trophies per decade" 😆

Claudius

Burnwinter lol. To ease your nerves, go to the 2003-04 end of season table. And then look at all the teams we drew with that season. We had 12 draws. They weren’t all against United, Chelsea etc.

goon

For all the slack Calariofi and Merino get I think our left side balance and cohesion looked a lot better with them in there.

lorddulaarsenal

That’s uneducated flack for ya

banduan

This was a great win make no mistake about it. We played well despite Odegaard still being out of sorts (and clearly nursing a cold on top of that).

est

Tbh, the margins in this League are very slim. We were inches from going 0-2 behind and most likely dropping points. It turned out to be a great win in the end, but we were hardly convincing all the way upto our first goal. It's hardly surprising people were annoyed at Odegaard playing as bad as he's ever played for us, Jesus and co refusing to shoot and Raya looking like he's making his senior debut.

flobaba

Understandable. However, there's context to everything this season (including our actions or inactions in the past summer transfer window). Odegaard was playing poorly, but I view him like Saka. Even if they're playing bad I give them the benefit of doubt, and hope others can pick up the slack. They've earned it. Now we have learned he was probably sick just prior to the game.

What I look for in tricky fixtures such as this, is effort and a good overall team performance. We e have had a rough first half of the season and the team will need all the positive encouragement they can get for the push to come this year if we are to be in title contention come May. I choose to believe in and support the team (and manager) we have, as is. They've earned it.

Qwiss

Gazza M I don't agree. I think there were signs here that a few things are changing. The midfield are pushing on and attacking more. There has been a noticeable uptick in shots and box breaking play from the midfielders since Sakas injury IMO. Its a smallish tweak but I think its making a difference in how much threat we offer.

Claudius

Qwiss I feel like that Mbeumo goal is over-discussed. If it was a systematic issue, yeah, but losing the ball due to aggressive playmaking and then not recovering - can’t get agitated over that.

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