• The Arsenal

  • New Year New Game: Brentford vs Arsenal 17:30 UK Time.

We have excellent structure, but we really do need a physically dominant wide attacker particularly on the left. Nico Williams would thrive out there for us.

Hearing some excuses from my Brentford mates re missing players, but even allowing for the goal start we gave them, I think that's as dominant a win as we've ever had in my old neck of the woods. Really enjoyed that.

We’re playing at such a high level in many aspects of the game Paulie. Brilliant infact.

Was reading the forum earlier and was sorry to hear of your recent loss 🙁 wishing you all the best bud

    • Segway

    • Post #190

    Everytime I watch Nwaneri I'm impressed. Wow, what a touch and control of the ball he has. Good signs that Arteta is ramping up his involvement.

    Jesus' resurgence is a blessing. Him and Martinelli looked much better again today.

      Agree to all that Segs

      Nwaneri is special.

      By the way - I don’t want Mbeumo - he’s not Arsenal quality

      • MistaT

      • Post #192

      HomeSteak — when is XG counted/calculated? Is it at time of the shot?

      Because I think ambient did very well to fashion his shot, and disguise it. No way that shot is worth only .06xg….

          Segway he has very fast feet and can stop on a dime. must be a nightmare 1 on 1

          the best part of the win was that we came from behind away from home, and the contributions of nwaneri. in the grander scheme, it was very much a 'hold serve' type of game. same patterns, same frustrations.

              MistaT hey. Open-play xG is calculated at point of contact based on your situation, eg distance to goal, angle to goal, defensive coverage, body part, preferred foot, passage of play, type of play etc.

              There is also post shot xG or xGOT which then takes all that information plus where in the goal frame the ball ended up (specifically for on-target shots)

                MistaT Is it at time of the shot?

                There's both xG and "post shot xG", but the usual one is before the shot is taken.

                There are many flavours of this dubious stuff.

                  Looking at goals conceded from specific shots seems like poor use of data. Yes, Mbeumo's goal might've come from 0,06 xG, but Brentford created 0,25 xG aside from that shot as well. Most shots have a low xG, but the cumulative amount is the number of goals you're expected to concede. Whether that's 9 0,1 xG shots or one 0,9 xG shot will result in the same expecations. Whether that specific shot had high xG is less interesting than how much we manage to limit the xG of our opponents.

                    QuincyAbeyie Exactly. It’s bad use of xG. You want to use it over a long time. Like if I flipped a coin 4 times, I might get 4 heads. Cos shit happens. But over 40 flips, should be 50/50

                      The aggregates are more meaningful, but if we persistently conceded goals from lower xG situations versus higher xG situations, over time it would suggest the concept was misrepresenting those situations.

                      xG is presumably set up so that aggregate expected goals should approach aggregate goals over time given the body of prior data, otherwise it'd be a bit weird. Perhaps Claude or Quincy can confirm that.

                      Mbeumo's near post strike was both clever and well executed, so it's a goal. I'd be interested to see the post shot / goal frame analysis on it.

                        • MistaT

                        • Post #200

                        I agree that XG is best used over large sample sizes.

                        I just don’t buy that Mbuemo only scores 1 in 20 when he gets that shot (whether through the legs or curled).

                        Having skimmed through this match thread, there's a distinctly different vibe in the comments during the 1st half vs post-match. Can't help but feel this is reflective of the fanbase's impatience at the moment - would love us not to be so quick to write both thr players and the team in general off.

                        I'll get off my high horse now...

                          Don Pacifico Can't help but feel this is reflective of the fanbase's impatience at the moment

                          We're suffering from anxiety with Saka out and having regularly struggled to score. It's quite hard watching Jesus and Martinelli start together as we've learnt from experience they often don't deliver the end product.

                          That said, people are very apt to slag off a returning Calafiori, or Ødegaard having an off day. ..

                              Burnwinter That said, people are very apt to slag off a returning Calafiori, or Ødegaard having an off day. ..

                              Yeah, I think it's more this that I'm referring to. Merino also seemed to fall within that bracket too. For players who are either new or generally proven performers (and coming back from injuries), it seems hasty to be quite so dismissive. Sounds like a lot of the squad also had had the bug that kept Havertz out of the game (plus Ode probably suffering from being a new father).

                              Overall, I think we can cut most players a lot more slack than they're getting at the moment.

                                If we can pull out a win against Brighton it will have been a tidy festive season to make up for the painful points dropped in December. Let's see.

                                Drawing with Everton was disgusting and the bad taste has lingered