2024 US Election: Page 33 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

2024 US Election

Burnwinter

Gazza M I do think the broader effect is as much to do with pulling whatever Twitter used to be (not great, but more functional) out of circulation as it is creating a platform with alternative values.

That said, I think people should be very worried by the type of ideology I have seen being normalised in and around US tech circles as they're currently represented on X.

It's viewed as a dire time for US big tech. There's been a prolonged period of layoffs, and a dip in the valuation of and questions about the business model of some major tech companies, and a long, deep dip in the success of VC-backed startups over the past couple of years.

It's all relative of course, but the days of it being relatively easier for Ivy League tech grads to secure a $300–400k pa FAANG salary are fading.

If anyone on OMITT remembers what nRx was back in 2014 (before it fell apart for the time being), some variation of those "neoreactionary" ideas now seems to verge on normal for a decent chunk of the higher profile US tech posters on X. It could be described as often extremely racist, always techno-optimist authoritarianism with a greater or lesser degree of modesty covering it up.

Having come across a lot of this content, I see Musk's antics as owner of the platform as the thin end of the wedge.

Gazza M

Burnwinter they're naked opportunists from what i can see. cosying up to the right in order to replace democratic institutions with a techno-oligarcy. if trump wins, musk will be plonked into the heart of government with authorities to gut whatever agencies oppose his agenda. I genuinely believe he's gone all-in on maga because he's running from accountability that would definitely arrive under a democrat administration

Burnwinter

Gazza M if trump wins, musk will be plonked into the heart of government with authorities to gut whatever agencies oppose his agenda.

I think this is slightly sensationalising it. I don't think Musk would have hiring and firing authority—based on past experience Trump aggressively brokers state influence to technology companies when in office, he doesn't give it away for free. Compare the current situation with his previous and current contract hijinks with Bezos and Amazon.

However, tech capital's interest in Trump's candidacy overlaps heavily with the prospect of a run-up start on huge federal contracts, as well as the continuation of subsidies many of Musk's companies have enjoyed.

If you google "Sovereign AI" (a recent speech by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang articulates this term) you can also see a major future prize looming into view: at least one of the major AI platforms being built in the USA is highly likely to become, in practice, the preferred supplier of AI to the feds. An unbelievably vast and for the time being, almost bulletproof piece of business for whichever company gets a hold of it.

Gazza M

Burnwinter it's not that sensationalist imo. Biden overturned the below EO, but this will be one of the first things on his agenda

In October 2020, the Trump Administration issued an executive order that would have stripped protections from civil servants perceived as disloyal to the president and encouraged expressions of allegiance to the president when hiring. This effort is referred to as “Schedule F” because that was the name of the new employment category that the executive order created. The administration claimed the authority to create Schedule F based on statutory language that exempted certain positions “of a confidential, policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating character” from employment protections. Previous administrations and Congress always understood the language to apply only to a smaller number of positions traditionally filled by political appointees

Burnwinter

See also the National Security Council for Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI). Pretty sure I have mentioned this industry-government peak body on OMITT before, but if you take a look at what was leaked a few years ago under the name "the Chinese tech landscape" you will get an idea of how big tech presently lobbies the US administration for rents.

Burnwinter

Gazza M A broad spectrum purge of the federal bureaucracy is the substance of the Project 2025 initiative, which you'd think is something Trump would try to put into action, though I'd be curious to see how committed he'd actually be to it. I don't think that's outlandish.

What I'm suggesting sounds sensationalist is the claim that Trump would hand hiring and firing authority to third parties such as Musk.

I think Trump would be more likely to jealously guard that authority and only use it on behalf of vested interests based on specific agreements. There could however be some de facto agreement between Trump and Musk, or with other holders of capital about the Cabinet selection, or about the removal of specific regulations or officials, or the award of specific major contracts, and so on.

I really hope Trump doesn't win. I think a Trump victory would be very damaging to US state capacity independent of its uses. And I get the sense there would be less resistance from the establishment than there was in 2016.

Gurgen

A second Trump presidency would be much more dangerous than the first. The first time around he had various semi-sane people around him who actually tried to do their jobs but quickly found out he is an idiot. Now he is surrounded by psychopaths like Musk who play Diablo IV all day and are in league with the Kremlin. Trump himself is too lazy to destroy the country, he will just sit around eating Big Macs like before. However, the fascist incel tech bros like Elon aren't. Either way a Trump presidency is a disaster for the world at large, as foreign policy will go back to appeasing every dictator under the sun. I don't see why people outside the US aren't allowed to be worried by that. The US has its soldiers everywhere and has legislation that says it can invade my country if the ICJ dares to prosecute an American. Never mind the fact that all bullshit US culture wars are immediately imported into Europe. So we have a stake in this.

mdgoonah41

people outside the USA should obviously feel like they have an interest in US politics given how much we unnecessarily involve ourselves in the affairs of the entire world, and to be fair, how linked our consumption policies are to the rest of the world. that said, i'd just remind people who do not live here and have never lived here that its hard to understand the issues that people deal with on a daily basis that are impacted or potentially impacted by the election if youve never actually lived here, and if you are going to judge people's political beliefs, you should at least make sure you understand the issues they are concerned about.

i could comment on UK politics with a 30,000 foot view, but it would be pretty meaningless. ive visited the UK 4 or 5 times, never for more than 4 days, and ive never lived there, so its hard for me to speak meaningfully about issues impacting people in london or portsmouth or whatever. the situation in the US right now feels like a bomb about to explode, and the shrapnel is going to hit everyone, so its understandable that everyone is worried/has a take on it.

Burnwinter

mdgoonah41 the situation in the US right now feels like a bomb about to explode, and the shrapnel is going to hit everyone

I get your point, but if we're going to be doing a little judicious tone policing about sensitive political commentary, maybe the bomb and shrapnel metaphor isn't the best possible choice for you here.

flobaba

Eh, let everyone have their say. Americans are all about free speech no? If you think Kamala is or will be incompetent, you're welcome to your opinion.

In general I've found people get the leader they deserve. If Trump wins, that's what America (and the world) deserves, and will have to live with when (if) the time comes.

Gazza M

meanwhile in Australia, this is the level of scandale engulfing the leader of our nation

Anthony Albanese has broken his silence on the Qantas upgrade mess revealing an audit of his travel has confirmed he never directly called Qantas CEO Alan Joyce about upgrades for personal travel.
But crucially, the Prime Minister is not denying - as revealed by news.com.au - that he or his staff may have called Qantas’ government relations contacts or the Chairman’s Lounge “hotline” to book the flights with upgrades then offered by Qantas.
Instead, the Prime Minister is unequivocally denying for the first time that he ever personally liaised with Mr Joyce directly on the subject of upgrades for family holidays

the US needs to go back to the time when owning a peanut farm could potentially sink a presidency

MistaT

Gazza M — “Make Politics Boring Again” if you may

JazzG

Is this normal in America to just have boxes in the street where you can drop your ballot into? What the actual fuck.....

I saw yesterday someone had set fire to one of these boxes but not entirely sure if that clip is legit, surely this is not a very well thought out idea?

Gazza M

JazzG we don't have those in AU either. electoral drop boxes still seem to be a point of contention over there as well, i don't think all states have them. on the flipside, from reading about USPS, they don't play around wirh this stuff. if you're caught tampering with standard mail - let alone ballot boxes - they have a highly responsive and well resourced security arm that will wreck your shit expeditiously. the republican who set fire to the ballot box in washington was caught within like 24-48 hours, and remedial measures put in place for the damaged ballots.

Qwiss

JazzG makes for better selfies.

DiabyKungFu

Early voting is voting by mail and that is basically a mailbox. I'm not sure what exactly about that you find unusual.

JazzG

Having voting boxes out randomly on the road which could easily be tampered with or set on fire?

DiabyKungFu

Mailboxes are also "randomly out on the road" and can "easily be tampered with or set on fire".

People can blow up a mailbox if they're really sufficiently motivated to do so. People can break open an ATM machine and steal money if they're really sufficiently motivated to do so. People can get a weapon and shoot you in the head if they're really sufficiently motivated to do so. If a crazy person is sufficiently motivated to do a crazy thing, then they can do so. That's not really a sufficient argument against civilization existing.

JazzG

Some very comparable examples you list there. Considering how divided the country is, talk of foreign interference and how the election could potentially be settled by tens of thousands of votes I would think they should be looking to make elections as secure as possible? Those are not general post boxes holding things like birthday cards and parcels are they? They only hold ballots

DiabyKungFu That's not really a sufficient argument against civilization existing.

So you are equating these mailboxes with civilisation?

DiabyKungFu

JazzG Considering how divided the country is, talk of foreign interference and how the election could potentially be settled by tens of thousands of votes I would think they should be looking to make elections as secure as possible?

If the legislatures around the country worked to "make the elections as secure as possible", then those invested in the "America is bad" cottage industry would turn around and say "'Securing the election' is clearly a dog whistle for voter suppression. This is proof that America is a dystopian hellscape". Instead, the general direction of travel has been to bend over backwards to make voting as easy as possible and those in the "America is bad" cottage industry seem to want to say "Making voting easy enables bad actors to flourish. This is proof that America is a dystopian hellscape".

Sometimes being restrictive is good. Sometimes being restrictive is bad. Each situation needs to be analyzed on its own merits. However, you're not going to get me to believe that "having mailboxes" is some crazy, radical, democracy destabilizing concept. You've clearly worked backwards from "America is bad" to reach that conclusion.

JazzG

DiabyKungFu However, you're not going to get me to believe that "having mailboxes" is some crazy, radical, democracy destabilizing concept. You've clearly worked backwards from "America is bad" to reach that conclusion.

Again where did say that democracy destabilizing concept, I just think it is a bad idea. I agree voting should be made as easy as possible, you could have online voting and make it even easier but there is a reason that isn't allowed.

Not sure what makes you think I clearly think America is bad? I'm just talking about these ballot boxes...

Gazza M we don't have those in AU either. electoral drop boxes still seem to be a point of contention over there as well, i don't think all states have them. on the flipside, from reading about USPS, they don't play around wirh this stuff. if you're caught tampering with standard mail - let alone ballot boxes - they have a highly responsive and well resourced security arm that will wreck your shit expeditiously. the republican who set fire to the ballot box in washington was caught within like 24-48 hours, and remedial measures put in place for the damaged ballots.

Interesting and good they clamp down hard if someone does try to fuck around with them.

Burnwinter

Dunno about the real impact of having postal votes made by public mailbox labelled in such a manner, but I do think the way the US does elections is procedurally stupid.

The variable use among states of ballot-marking devices and voting machines is one example of this.

That the powers of the Federal Election Commission don't extend to consistent nationwide electoral administration and that this is managed by officials and agencies in each state is another.

These things hardly determine the presence or absence of civilisation but, as with many aspects of US parliamentary democracy—some more of which we're quite likely to see if this poll results in further constitutional shenanigans—it's pretty far from perfect.

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