Expectations - 2023/2024 Season: Page 33 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Expectations - 2023/2024 Season

RocktheCasbah

Oh yeah, I'm not saying it was surprising in any way. But I think it plays into a wider scepticism about how good this Arsenal team actually is. Again, not surprising, I feel like I've been playing a sort of John the Baptist role regarding the competency of this team most of the season (and particularly over Christmas) on this forum. So, if there are Arsenal fans who are sceptical about how good we are, it's natural that those people not lucky enough to be Arsenal fans would be even more so.

What IS interesting is that having had very recent evidence that, when push comes to shove, City are well capable of engaging Terminator mode and just going WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN.... that, with slightly less than a quarter of the league season left to play, a gap of 3 points is deemed to be terminal. At this stage of the season last season, with 29 games played we were 5 points clear and by game week 32, 1 point behind so things can change super fucking quickly.

But I guess ~~everyone is~~ some are looking at this City side (as I did last season to be fair) and just thinking, "Naaah"

RocktheCasbah

Burnwinter The one thing I'd say about the title race is that we've nothing in particular to fear from supposedly difficult away ties at Old Trafford and TH Stadium.

Not that those are easy matches, but you wouldn't be mad to be pencilling us in for a win as the most likely outcome beforehand.

Also, I completely agree with this. Particularly the United game, but I also believe that Spurs had the luxury of catching us out at the Emirates off the back of a Champions League fixture. One thing we know about Mikel is that, like the Terminator in Judgment Day, he learns. I think we'll be prepared for Spurs and - push comes to shove - we are the superior side. I absolutely expect a win there.

Burnwinter

Absolutely.

City have five of the last six of these bloody things. Guardiola keeps claiming that makes it harder for them, which is perhaps not without some sort of grain of truth, but I'd prefer to believe it when they actually drop a few points.

It is frustrating me that any judgement concerning the 115 charges appears to be being deferred till after the season, reeks of protection or clandestine legal threats.

As for the title, I'm happy to dare to hope as long as our own players and manager do …

Claudius

Burnwinter I’m fine if the judgment over the 115 charges takes another year. What I do not what is a technical error by the premier league that let’s Manchester City off the hook. All these other teams taking 4 point hits have basic accounting issues - they overspent. City is basically a fraud and conspiracy charge - where they worked methodically to overstate revenues and understate costs for years until they had the flywheel from accumulated assets and champions league residency. The team deserves to be sent to the Conference

Burnwinter

It's true that so long as the punishment fits the crime, it'll be a moderately satisfying outcome.

City should receive a severe penalty affecting their financial and squad position (a matching PSR penalty and a lengthy incoming transfer ban would suit), have their trophies asterisked during the affected period, and also suffer a points deduction or relegation.

Can't see it happening though.

Qwiss

Burnwinter I think we have "overperformed" less than Liverpool if anything, as the points we've dropped have often been gratuitous.

They look more like we did in the latter half of last season, relying heavily on late winners and big moments. We've been brushing most teams aside with ease.

RocktheCasbah

Qwiss They look more like we did in the latter half of last season, relying heavily on late winners and big moments. We've been brushing most teams aside with ease.

That's exactly how I've been feeling about them for a few weeks now. Fingers crossed, we are right,

JazzG

RocktheCasbah It is unbelievable how they keep getting away with it, at some point you'd think this is not sustainable but I think players like Salah, VDV and Allison have literally kept them in it. Especially VDV who has been incredible this season, even more important than Salah or Allison.

Sicario2 - Tier 1

JazzG

Agree with VVD. There’s been little between him and Gabriel but the former may edge it as he’s mainly been playing with kids next to him and of course scored a cup final winner.

Claudius

This Pool team is better than early 2023 Arsenal. They are an attacking force. They generate lots of chances - still more attacking than us, even if we have the goals in the bag. That’s what’s keeping them afloat. That irresistible attack

goon

They attack with a lot of pace, trademark Kloppball basically.

Claudius

goon they have 3 fast guys in attack at once. We can never do that. It’s not our style, but against a team like City which can push you back, if we had two fit fast players in attack, it would really change the dynamic. City would’ve been wary of counters, and might’ve committed less

goon

Claudius

Yeah, we missed Martinelli for that exact reason. He's not only quick but very direct, no coincidence Klopp loves him.

Liverpool are in general much more vertical too though. We're about half way between them and City.

awooga83

Yep and when that attacking dynamic it gives them a better hope of outscoring the weaker opposition and because their fixtures look a bit more favourable and they sit top is why I think they look more likely winner at the moment. And they've navigated crazy injuries to most of their key players and the fact they are still there and even leading is a testament to their quality. I'm not sure we could navigate losing as many of our big players and maintain our level.

I think it wouldn't be a surprise if they drop points I just think we will probably drop a few as well and it might be too much in the end. Whatever happens we certainly need to hit 2-3 seasons getting 90+ points to give us the opportunities for a title.

Big Willie

awooga83 Whatever happens we certainly need to hit 2-3 seasons getting 90+ points to give us the opportunities for a title.

So we're gonna need multiple 90+ point seasons just to have the opportunity, not necessarily winnng it?

Truthfully that might have been the case in the past but it's not going to take 90+ points to win the title this season. Neither did it take that last season. Who knows, it might be up in the high 90s again next season, but I'm willing to bet it'll be between 87 and 93 points even next season.

DiabyKungFu

Clrnc Can I just say other than United we have won all our remaining games last year...

If you're going by the standard "equivalent fixtures" formulation, then we drew at home against Southampton last season which is the "equivalent" fixture of this Luton game coming up.

Burnwinter

Big Willie So we're gonna need multiple 90+ point seasons just to have the opportunity, not necessarily winnng it?

Truthfully that might have been the case in the past but it's not going to take 90+ points to win the title this season.

That'd just make this a season when these hypothetical multiple occasions of going over 90+ points would work out to an Arsenal victory … as last season would've been with one better result versus City and a couple of other things going our way.

It's a bit dreary that Opta foghorns its "supercomputer model" percentages without showing the predicted average and variance of season points totals for each team over the 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations they talk about. You would expect the league winners might have 87–88 points this season.

That our weekend draw versus City swung relative title chances by around 20% in Opta's model demonstrates its sensitivity to conditions that aren't super unlikely. Its predictions will change just as much over the coming weeks given any further "reversals".

awooga83

I think they are the numbers most teams competing with city, at least under pep, need. It's not like a specific rule I just think that's the level of consistency you need in the league to be able to replicate to give you a good opportunity against a City like team. I mean this is probably when they've looked a bit less convincing and they are still right in the race pushing us and Liverpool.

goon

The way I see it, 90+ gives you a good chance of winning. 85+ might give you a chance of winning.

Claudius

Burnwinter those models will stress you out like Hillary Clinton projections. Not really paying attention to them unless we really fall behind. As long as we are within 3 points up to around 4 rounds to go, will have hope.

Burnwinter

Claudius I'd say there's really no point paying attention to it at the moment. If it still rates us at over 20% and it's changing by as much as 20% based on one result, it's about as near to a three horse race as it's gonna be.

I've noticed Cannon Stats appears to be steadily predicting we'll win the league?

This Opta graphic claims we've overperformed the least among the three contenders. It's also great fun to look down at United 😆

Opta "overperformance" graphic

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