Expectations - 2023/2024 Season: Page 34 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Expectations - 2023/2024 Season

Burnwinter

Big Willie So we're gonna need multiple 90+ point seasons just to have the opportunity, not necessarily winnng it?

Truthfully that might have been the case in the past but it's not going to take 90+ points to win the title this season.

That'd just make this a season when these hypothetical multiple occasions of going over 90+ points would work out to an Arsenal victory … as last season would've been with one better result versus City and a couple of other things going our way.

It's a bit dreary that Opta foghorns its "supercomputer model" percentages without showing the predicted average and variance of season points totals for each team over the 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations they talk about. You would expect the league winners might have 87–88 points this season.

That our weekend draw versus City swung relative title chances by around 20% in Opta's model demonstrates its sensitivity to conditions that aren't super unlikely. Its predictions will change just as much over the coming weeks given any further "reversals".

Claudius

Burnwinter those models will stress you out like Hillary Clinton projections. Not really paying attention to them unless we really fall behind. As long as we are within 3 points up to around 4 rounds to go, will have hope.

Burnwinter

Claudius I'd say there's really no point paying attention to it at the moment. If it still rates us at over 20% and it's changing by as much as 20% based on one result, it's about as near to a three horse race as it's gonna be.

I've noticed Cannon Stats appears to be steadily predicting we'll win the league?

This Opta graphic claims we've overperformed the least among the three contenders. It's also great fun to look down at United 😆

Opta "overperformance" graphic

Mirth

Burnwinter This passes the eye test at least. Have felt that Chelsea aren't as bad as they've been made out to be while Spurs and United have been fairly fortunate.

Qwiss

Mirth yep, Chelsea midfield gets a lot of stick but its their forwards that are fucking everything up. Even then I get the feeling it will eventually click for Jackson.

banduan

Mirth This passes the eye test at least. Have felt that Chelsea aren't as bad as they've been made out to be while Spurs and United have been fairly fortunate.

Spuds have been ridiculously jammy.

HomeSteak

In my opinion, in order to stand a change we kinda need 6 wins, 1 draw and max 1 L in the last 8 games. Even then, it might not be enough.
Let's look over it.
Brighton - Arsenal
Arsenal - Villa (after the Bayern game)
Wolves - Arsenal (after Bayern away)
Arsenal - Chelsea
Tottenham - Arsenal
Arsenal - Bournemouth(if we make it passed Bayern it will be after CL game)
United - Arsenal (after CL game...)
Arsenal - Everton.

If we make it passed Bayern, we will play every 3 days since the City game from last weekend until May 11 at Old Trafford. Then we get a week off and we play Everton lol.

That is an insane schedule. In order to get to the 6 wins, we need to win all 4 games at home. Villa and Chelsea will be the hard ones, but Villa will have EL in between and might have top 5 wrapped up so I assume Unai will play the second string. And well, we should be able to beat Chelsea.
So if we get a perfect record at home, we need 2 wins and a draw from Brighton, Wolves, Spurs and United.

It's a very, very hard ask for the team, considering the pressure(a thing that fucks us up big time), the insane number of games...and the opposition.
And as I said, considering the run in for Liverpool and City...it might not be enough at all.
So the 20% chance the AI are giving us...is well, fair, if anything I would put our chance lower then 20% . We have very little chance to win it.

Burnwinter

HomeSteak So if we get a perfect record at home, we need 2 wins and a draw from Brighton, Wolves, Spurs and United.

Not to say it's easy given the pressure and the fixture congestion, but when you put it like that and shut your eyes to pretend all the home matches can be chalked in as wins, it sounds pretty doable.

I checked and I think we got three wins and a 3–1 loss to a jaggy United from those away fixtures last season. So we're all set for an 88 point finish.

Claudius

Watching City the last two games, the way they are able to weather injuries, and just perform at a very high level, still makes me consider them strong favourites. Everyone was going on about all the defenders they were missing, and they still fielded a £200m defense. That kind of resilience money can’t buy 😀

Qwiss

Claudius the way they are able to weather injuries

They were missing 3 players. Hardly a huge injury crisis. We've dealt with more than that almost all season.

HomeSteak

Burnwinter And if all that happens, we still need Liverpool to loose 2 games and get only a draw some where, and for City to match our results. Simply put, not this year lads. With Klopp and Salah gone, Liverpool will fight for top 4 and nothing more next season, nobody can replace Klopp or Salah.
2 more big signings that work out, and I can see us winning it next year in style.

RocktheCasbah

HomeSteak why are you torturing yourself like this? Liverpool still have 9 league games left to play, literally anything could happen. Yes, they've done really well to get to this point, but they also have a mental schedule in the last couple of weeks April, including 4 away games on the bounce. Nothing is guaranteed.

Burnwinter

HomeSteak All the models say our chance is low and I agree with you. But match by match, it's nail-biting entertainment where humdrum encounters with Luton or Sheffield could be season-enders. I'm enjoying the quirky thought of Liverpool's players feeling a little pressure today.

For now we just have to hope we can beat Brighton ... with Bayern midweek, nothing else about the league needs to be on the squad's radar.

In a few days we could've secured three of the minimum seven points you reckon we need from the aways ... 🙏

HomeSteak

RocktheCasbah It's what I do. My job is to easy, I have a lot of free time during the day

goon

I think we're in a great position personally. I get the feeling that fans and players alike a much calmer and mature this season.

Don Pacifico

goon it's funny you say that. I definitely don't feel as excited as last year despite the fact we've debatably got a better chance this season. Think it might be a function of (a) the unexpectedness of our challenge last year and (b) the manner in which we stormed the league in the first half of the season (the football definitely hasn't been as exciting as a whole this season).

For what it's worth, I've forecasted Liverpool to win the league by two points with us in 2nd and City one point further back in 3rd.

QuincyAbeyie

I'm finding it hard to argue that the models are wrong and that we're actually in a great position, but I do think that Liverpool, while in the best position, are the worst team of the three.

Claudius

Don Pacifico last year was a different atmosphere completely. This is clearly a better team and has been all season. But the team and fans were buzzing last year at their first real title tilt in ages

Clrnc

I am thinking to do a last 9 match predictions thread for the top 3 teams but I tried it myself and we came 2nd so I decided not to do it.

Don Pacifico

Clrnc who did you have winning the league?

Clrnc

Don Pacifico City ironically who's currently 3rd. They are still our biggest thread imo

Lukazan

I'm looking at the remaining fixtures and I must not have studied them properly as I had in my head that Liverpool's run in was piss-easy and Man City's wasn't too bad. Looking at them now though I see a number of games I can see both slipping up in. There's not much the 3 team's remaining fixtures. However, I think if I could swap remaining fixures with either of them then I would in both cases. Ours is that little bit harder imo and whilst we definitely have improved from last season in our maturity, resilience and ability to grind out a result.. there's still that little bit of doubt in my mind about us in this area..

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