Expectations - 2023/2024 Season: Page 20 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Expectations - 2023/2024 Season

RowJimmy

RowJimmy Joyful football.
Not looking good here at the moment. Yesterday was particularly turgid.
85 plus points (ie more than last season).
Still possible, will need to play better in 2nd half than in first.
If we go into the next-to-last match day with a chance to win the league I will be happy.
This is still my key measure, and I would now say that if we hit 85 points we will be playing that penultimate game with a chance to win the league. The way things are bunched that could be true of 4 teams.

Qwiss

awooga83 we also need to be looking at non-penalty xG, we've had a decent few this season but most of last season we were denied so many and they really push xG up considerably. Open play xG is another thing to look at, we are overly focussed on set pieces. People say we're like a Mourinho team but really we're like a Big Sam team.

Claudius

Qwiss good points. Our set piece coaching in both directions is great. We need to get Odegaard up, and connect the front 5 again as was the case last year. Each game our player networks look like an Nketiah effect regardless of if he plays - and Odegaard’s positioning is a large part of this.

Clrnc

Not a single bugger have us in 2nd wow

Claudius

Clrnc it’s giving mental illness. I’m still bullish.

Mirth

Clrnc Et tu, Darren?

RocktheCasbah

Clrnc Not a single bugger have us in 2nd wow

Interested to know what people think of these predictions a month later..?

lorddulaarsenal

Feels like our momentum and belief are gone.

We were looking so strong too.

Just hope we cling on to top four and then properly address the striker situation in the summer.

For just once since the Invincible days I’d like to see us have a complete squad

Claudius

lorddulaarsenal it feels like a mid-season blip. I’m not worried yet because other than Fulham where we were stale and played Eddie up front, we played well in these games. It’s not like end of last season when people were blitzing past Rob Holding and the team looked shit. Team is much better than fans give it credit for, especially when you consider the praise post the Brighton and Liverpool games.

RocktheCasbah

lorddulaarsenal This is just a reaction to a bad week - no way these predictions would have looked like this on Boxing Day. 🙂

QuincyAbeyie

At least a complete first eleven.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius what does it mean to not be worried? You're not worried we'll fail to win the league, or you're not worried we'll fail top four?

Qwiss

Claudius It’s not like end of last season when people were blitzing past Rob Holding and the team looked shit.

Its very like the end of last season when we fell apart against Liveprool and West Ham. Games we started well, like we have recently, but fell apart in the second half, like we have lately. The reality is we aren't stronger than last season and are very unlikely to win the league.

awooga83

QuincyAbeyie yep I think that's a fair question. This season for me was about winning the league or being very close and when we have a City without De Bruyne and Haaland for games and a Liverpool team that most probably didn't think would be in the race sitting top this is likely a significant opportunity at the title. This isn't a City that has looked unstoppable like when Liverpool were running full pelt and still get beat. My issue would be that's a big chance to do it blown. Do I think we'll improve our form, most likely, but by the time we have could the points we dropped against Fulham and West ham have already cost us quite possibly. Do I think this Arsenal can go on a run pretty much winning most matches, right now I don't think that's likely and I feel that's almost where we are at. So that's where my concern would be, that even if this ends up a blip it could already have impacted our outcome.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie there are 3 serious teams in this title run. We are one of them. A 3 game stumble isn’t a concern. I have never seen a bookie that had us as a 50% or higher bet for the title. I have often seen City with odds of 55% or higher and us typically with odds of ₁₅-20% with Pool. Mentally what it means for me is I have never considered this season some fait accompli. I think of us as the strongest contender and hope we win.

And, no, it’s not excuses. It’s just looking at priors. I had us as 2nd in the season predictions. Anything around there (up or down one) is fine for me, but ideally it’s up 1.

QuincyAbeyie

RocktheCasbah the more games out of the 38 that have been played, the better the basis of information people have to predict the outcome, since less games remain to predict.

So that the predictions have changed since boxing day is bad. It's a logical reaction. Losing points obviously makes it harder to win the title and more likely to finish lower.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius since you're talking about bookies, using "before they had us below 50% and now have us below 50%" is a very convenient way to not see any change in predictions. If you instead look at how the bookies' odds of us winning the title have changed in recent weeks, which is obviously more accurate, I think you'll notice.

RocktheCasbah

QuincyAbeyie Of course it's a logical reaction - but it's a logical reaction to one week out of 20.

I said it a a few days back, but we're very quick to dismiss the way we beat Manchester City & Brighton and drew at Liverpool. The majority view of this forum seems to be that this Arsenal side is closer to the team that lost at Fulham and (ludicrously) at home to West Ham than the team that won & drew those games I mentioned. That's fine, I'm not here to tell you what to think (though it might feel that way at times!), I just don't agree with it.

Claudius

I also look at tons of team data across all the big teams. And I’m looking forward to team availability over the next 4-6 weeks. I feel good about where we will end up relative to Liverpool during that period. Ie, the table will remain compressed after 4-6 weeks.

GooneriC

Unless we significantly address our attack we won't finish in the top 4.

QuincyAbeyie

RocktheCasbah The majority view of this forum seems to be that this Arsenal side is closer to the team that lost at Fulham and (ludicrously) at home to West Ham than the team that won & drew those games I mentioned.

I don't think a single person thinks that (hopefully) . They do however think we'll see those kinds of performances too often for us to win the league. It's not enough to be closer to the team that won & drew those games, we basically need to be that team.

Mirth

RocktheCasbah The majority view of this forum seems to be that this Arsenal side is closer to the team that lost at Fulham and (ludicrously) at home to West Ham than the team that won & drew those games I mentioned.

Tbh the problem is that we're both. Those results have shown that we're capable of going on an incredible run but prone to shooting both feet off just before we cross the finishing line.

RocktheCasbah

QuincyAbeyie and I think we largely have been. Three days in December doesn't change that view for me.

QuincyAbeyie

RocktheCasbah if you think those performances are average for us this season then fair enough. Personally think Brighton is close to as good as we've played. Agree to very much disagree.

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