April is the cruellest month: Page 3 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

April is the cruellest month

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter Liverpool have a soft underbelly this season. Out of every club in the league, they're one of the ones with the least to play for. None of those guys are getting excited about the Europa League. None of them thinks Klopp's really going to put in the huge effort required to build their next generation squad.

Haven't checked the odds, but that Fivethirtyeight website has them as 21 % to make fourth, same as Brighton. Whether we think they'll make it or not, I don't imagine they'll have given up.

goon

QuincyAbeyie

It might be skewed by their SPI (overall strength) rating being too heavily influenced by how good they were last season. Wasn't long ago where it considered them a better team than us and only has us marginally ahead even now.

Put it simply going by their model they're still a 'title contending' level side.

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie

Often when one of these things comes up, I wish I had a handy tool to map out some whole asymmetric Bernoulli trial system for the outcomes, because that 21% feels very high even with the numbers Five Thirty Eight are publishing alongside. I guess it must hold mathematical water in their model, but to me their model's wrong.

Anyway put simply, I'll very happily put my £79 against your £21 if you want to bet Liverpool will make the top four.

IBL

We are obviously better than Liverpool this season, we need to go there and play like we don't think we are, we know we are (excuse the matrix reference). They can do their usual and artificially boost the atmosphere by playing crowd noises and chants etc though their loudspeaker but we shouldn't allow that to affect our game, we have a good away record this season and should be out for all 3 points. A win here would be massive.

RocktheCasbah

I mean... I don't wanna keep banging on about it, we're not gonna win up there just because I keep saying we will, but IF we do win up there, mathematically Liverpool will be unable to match the 75 points we will have - with ten games left to play . They're miles off and if the roles were reversed, they would be coming to our place fully expecting to batter us.

Clrnc

The other thought that I am afraid of is that if we do bottle this from this position, you will never hear the end of it from Pundits.

Our top 4 bottling feat has successfully created a big reputation for us that we can't handle the run in. So a huge huge huge chance to put all of them back in their place

goon

Clrnc it’s only Neville really, I’ve not heard too many others parrot that lazy view.

Daz

Burnwinter If you look at how we capitulated towards the death of last season and missed top four, it's easy to see how a couple of unlucky injuries or decisions or incidents could dent us. But the growth in character of our players through all that has been strongly evident too.

This is the part I'm holding onto also. This team just seems to be mentally stronger and consequently more capable of responding positively to little setbacks, rather than crumbling completely🤞

I am Arsenal Till I Die

goon Not really though. Loads of different narratives around us this season discrediting the progress we've made. Extension of which will be, we bottled the league should City win it.

Here is Ian Doyle with absolute filth -

Clrnc

goon Pundit, maybe he's the most outspoken one. Journos there were tons who don't believe in us

flobaba

I am Arsenal Till I Die imagine this nonsense. Who is this dullard?

Burnwinter

I am Arsenal Till I Die "Chief LFC Reporter", more of a custom forum tagline than a real job.

Qwiss

Burnwinter it's a basically a blogger.

HomeSteak

A lot, and I mean a lot of Liverpool fans and journos want City to win it. Insane if you read how much they hate City. But they are convinced that if Arteta wins it, it will ruin Klopps legacy for some reason

Claudius

HomeSteak what?!!!

IBL

Yep, all the many pool fans in one of my WhatsApp groups want city to win. I suppose City winning it is like when Chelsea do, feels artificial as its bankrolled, much easier to accept than us winning it.

KingslandBarge

Ffs quite the troll with toxic spew, which is fine from certain public cohorts, even op-ed writers, but an affiliated reporter or "journalist"? I suppose it was an opinion piece, but that take seems to be in bad faith.

Liverpool/Klopp surely had designs in solidifying their superiority, sucking us dry of Saka, tussling with Chelsea for Martinelli before we could renew their contracts, Ødegaard (in the summer, before signing). Now they're looking at a team that could perennially compete and lift a trophy in front of fans, not just groundskeeper Willie.

Burnwinter

Man watches the highlights of one of the best young sides in the league's history weekly, turning it on and scoring three goals a match, and all he's got to say is "well if they don't win it, that'll be embarrassing" ... fundamentally unserious person

Segway

"Officiating decisions" 🤣

Daz

Segway yeah that bit really got me too. The fucking cheek of it.

Qwiss

Segway we've literally had an official apology from the PGMOL twice and had one of them sacked for fucking us over so hard.

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter i

Burnwinter Anyway put simply, I'll very happily put my £79 against your £21 if you want to bet Liverpool will make the top four.

It's not really about the percentages themselves, whether it's a 20 or 10% chance I reckon Liverpool won't feel like they don't have anything to play for.

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