April is the cruellest month: Page 2 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

April is the cruellest month

RowJimmy

7 wins a draw and a loss for us means City need to win every game to tie us on 94 points. If they do win every game they'll probably win on GD. But they have very little margin for error.

RocktheCasbah

Indeed. As I've been saying, of course it's not beyond them (and if they do it, you can only doff your cap to them), but given the fixture pile up they'll be heading into, especially should they prevail against Bayern, it feels like a huge ask. And remember, it's not just not losing, it's having to win every single game.

And we're looking at these fixtures assuming we're going to slip up and they aren't. As RowJimmy says above, they have very little margin for error. What if they draw at Southampton next week and we beat Liverpool? I know it seems unlikely, but it absolutely could happen and then there's a ten point gap and only 9 games left for City and one less game for us to slip up in...

Qwiss

City basically need to avoid losing to Arsenal and then win the rest. It's a big ask from them.

Big Willie

RocktheCasbah And remember, it's not just not losing, it's having to win every single game.

Assuming we win almost every game ourselves. Hopefully we can. If we can guarantee at least 5 wins against the likes of WHU, Southampton, Wolves, Forest and Brighton then we give ourselves a good chance and some breating room to obtain the 4-6 points we need in the remaining 4 games against Chelsea, Liverpool, City and Newcastle to get over the line. If City do have a drop points in 1 or two games we may only need to beat the first 5 to get there. Let's see how it goes. So long as we can keep things up then it's hard to look past us.

Burnwinter

RocktheCasbah What if they draw at Southampton next week and we beat Liverpool? I know it seems unlikely, but it absolutely could happen and then there's a ten point gap and only 9 games left for City and one less game for us to slip up in...

This is why focusing on the next game stays the key for us. Get anything at all from Anfield, and it hurts City badly, and given they're behind us with games in hand, it also pushes them out further before we play them. We just need to scrap for every point.

The best scenario would be to go to the Etihad in late April with a 9, 10 or 11 point lead, so they're under a pile of pressure and anything less than a win is going to make the task feel very difficult. They might well still beat us, but we want to sap their morale to the max.

goon

Personally I feel a little more nervous about our capacity to drop points. If nothing else, we only have to look back to Feb when we dropped 8 points from 9 and, if not for a stoppage time goal off the back of Emi's head, it could have very easily been 10 from 12.

While I'm not one to read too much into these statistical models, most have the title race on a knife edge too, which tells me the margin for error still remains small.

If we win at Anfield this weekend though I'll be a lot more confident.

Tam

All the talk is of both teams going on runs and looking to avoid dropping points to each other and the big names. I've absolutely no doubt in my mind we'll throw away stupid points in a game (or more) that many of us currently expect we'll most likely walk through given our form, and so will City.

One of the bit things counting against us in my opinion is the run we're on. If we continue this through to the end of the season I'll be amazed and it'll mean the team are far more resilient than I thought, but I worry we've maybe started to peak a bit early in this race.

There's points to be dropped by us, it's less about the impact of those two or three dropped points and more about how Arteta refocuses the team after that loss/draw. We can afford to do that once or twice, especially if one of them is away at City and still be in control, but Arteta needs to make sure the team know and feel they are still in control.

HomeSteak

Anyway you look at it, we have to beat Liverpool away. Huge game, but at the same time, this is the time to play them, they also have an extra game this week vs Chelsea. If we fail to do that, we have to win at City...and I don't know.

RowJimmy

HomeSteak All wins count the same.

RocktheCasbah

HomeSteak

I don't know that I'd call Liverpool a must win game, but as Burnwinter says it will certainly make our life a lot easier if we do win it.

I should say as well, that looking at this Arsenal team and that Liverpool team, even allowing for the strange Anfield voodoo we seem to get enveloped in up there, I think we should be confident about our chances on Sunday evening. We are a very good football team, they are not.

Burnwinter

I don't think Anfield is a must win—I think we can afford to lose it to some extent—but I reckon if we do win it, our odds of taking the title probably improve by another 20% or so.

To me though, if we lose it, there's then a lot of pressure to at least draw at the Etihad. And that's a far harder task.

But even if we lose both badly, we're still right in the race after one slip-up from City.

What I hope is that if we maintain our lead over City, there's a point at which they realise they have to win every match and we need to lose matches we haven't been losing, and it gets much harder for them psychologically, and they switch off a bit.

Burnwinter

Liverpool have a soft underbelly this season. Out of every club in the league, they're one of the ones with the least to play for. None of those guys are getting excited about the Europa League. None of them thinks Klopp's really going to put in the huge effort required to build their next generation squad.

They actually have way less at stake than West Ham and Southampton that follow.

The way they conceded that goal at the start of the second half the other day. Sure, they'll come out hard hoping to go ahead and have a nice easy day, and they have some great players still. But as the match wears on they'll be very vulnerable. The big difference between them and some other opponents is we can't afford to hand them such generous chances.

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter Liverpool have a soft underbelly this season. Out of every club in the league, they're one of the ones with the least to play for. None of those guys are getting excited about the Europa League. None of them thinks Klopp's really going to put in the huge effort required to build their next generation squad.

Haven't checked the odds, but that Fivethirtyeight website has them as 21 % to make fourth, same as Brighton. Whether we think they'll make it or not, I don't imagine they'll have given up.

Don Pacifico

If I had a tagline like we did on the old forum, I think I'd update it to something along the lines 'One game at a time, all of the time' if only to remind myself! 😂

Difficult not to get swept up in ideating on eventualities but I will at least say that I'm genuinely enjoying the ride. Wherever we finish, I think it would be difficult with hindsight not to say we've had a good season. Just depends quite how good it ends up being...

RocktheCasbah

Don Pacifico that's exactly right.

It's funny, having spent the day with James on Saturday, we didn't really talk as much as we might have about what could be happening the next time we see each other on 28 May. I think this is mainly because every time one of us started to consider it, our brains just started to short circuit (I'm speaking for James here, but in this instance...). It's kind of ridiculous really.

I will, of course, be disappointed if we don't finish the job now, but really I'm also looking forward to the last day of the season and giving thanks to these players and manager who have given us a season beyond expectation -however it plays out.

Hopefully, we can catch up with some of you on the day too.

Burnwinter

Me too … I'm gonna be glued to it for the next couple of months.

If you look at how we capitulated towards the death of last season and missed top four, it's easy to see how a couple of unlucky injuries or decisions or incidents could dent us. But the growth in character of our players through all that has been strongly evident too.

Let's say we lose against Liverpool. I don't believe for a second these players will pack it in at that stage. That loss is costed in as a possibility. We weren't born yesterday. All we've really gotta do to win the league is maintain the average form we've had all season. But if we beat Liverpool, I reckon City are going to start to feel like they're fucked.

Big Willie

Burnwinter Let's say we lose against Liverpool. I don't believe for a second these players will pack it in at that stage. That loss is costed in as a possibility. We weren't born yesterday. All we've really gotta do to win the league is maintain the average form we've had all season. But if we beat Liverpool, I reckon City are going to start to feel like they're fucked.

Beating Liverpool and Chelsea are part of our average form we've had this season. Luckily Chelsea is at home, Liverpool aay should be a decent chance for us as long as we can stay defensively solid. Can't afford the mistakes we've been making recently. If we can be defensively solid and prevent them from having too many opportunities, I feel very confident we can create enough to really get them.

Daz

Burnwinter If you look at how we capitulated towards the death of last season and missed top four, it's easy to see how a couple of unlucky injuries or decisions or incidents could dent us. But the growth in character of our players through all that has been strongly evident too.

This is the part I'm holding onto also. This team just seems to be mentally stronger and consequently more capable of responding positively to little setbacks, rather than crumbling completely🤞

goon

QuincyAbeyie

It might be skewed by their SPI (overall strength) rating being too heavily influenced by how good they were last season. Wasn't long ago where it considered them a better team than us and only has us marginally ahead even now.

Put it simply going by their model they're still a 'title contending' level side.

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie

Often when one of these things comes up, I wish I had a handy tool to map out some whole asymmetric Bernoulli trial system for the outcomes, because that 21% feels very high even with the numbers Five Thirty Eight are publishing alongside. I guess it must hold mathematical water in their model, but to me their model's wrong.

Anyway put simply, I'll very happily put my £79 against your £21 if you want to bet Liverpool will make the top four.

IBL

We are obviously better than Liverpool this season, we need to go there and play like we don't think we are, we know we are (excuse the matrix reference). They can do their usual and artificially boost the atmosphere by playing crowd noises and chants etc though their loudspeaker but we shouldn't allow that to affect our game, we have a good away record this season and should be out for all 3 points. A win here would be massive.

RocktheCasbah

I mean... I don't wanna keep banging on about it, we're not gonna win up there just because I keep saying we will, but IF we do win up there, mathematically Liverpool will be unable to match the 75 points we will have - with ten games left to play . They're miles off and if the roles were reversed, they would be coming to our place fully expecting to batter us.

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