Next 10: Pivotal: Page 9 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Next 10: Pivotal

Gurgen

These calculations will only drive you crazy. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. We can't predict anything and the only game worth worrying about is the next one.

Burnwinter

goon 50-30-20 LDW a la @FEBravo seems very pessimistic.

I'd say more 50-10-40. I don't rate the draw, our matches against City have been dialled to eleven past two seasons.

I'd even say 40-10-50 and though I'd be right, sometimes you need to add pointless pessimism to be taken seriously.

QuincyAbeyie

If you're risk neutral then I reckon you'll find plenty of expected value with the bookies if those are your odds.

James

QuincyAbeyie No reckon about it, he absolutely will haha. Arsenal will not be any shorter than 10/3 at City.

I’m showing my hand too much here.

Burnwinter

James QuincyAbeyie

😂 Well gotta say, I'd be okay with 10/3 if the difference was chewed up by an overestimate of the draw. 55-10-35, say.

Feels like it's been years since we drew with City. I can't remember it under Arteta. I think everything points to a greater likelihood of City treating this as a "must win" on the date, including the theory the league won't be their most sincere focus. There's clearly an extra layer of emotion for the coaches as well, even if they deny it, and then there are the Jesus and Zinchenko storylines.

Meatwad

would be the perfect season to end those anfield and city curses.

Clrnc

Meatwad if we are worth our salt we will. Like how our Invincibles and other title winning teams turned up

James

Meatwad Feels like every year we’ve won the title, we’ve won at Anfield.

Edit: A point already made by @Clrnc

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

Clrnc Arteta needs to lock the boys in the room with the Wiltord and Overmars goals on repeat.

RocktheCasbah

Well, I've nailed my colours to the mast: https://dailycannon.com/2023/03/arsenal-premier-league-title-dream/

No pressure, boys.

Burnwinter

RocktheCasbah

Found the pull quote for you:

WHY IS HE SAYING THIS?

Nah, nice write-up Paul. For what it's worth, I agree with your take. It'll take a "plot twist" to lose it from here.

RocktheCasbah

Burnwinter Heh, thanks.

I'm glad you got that I'm not saying we definitely will win it, I'm used to the nuance in my writing not being picked up.

QuincyAbeyie

Far more likely to miss out on first than we were to lose out on fourth last season, in any case.

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie And missing fourth last season was a hell of a plot twist.

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter true.

Out of curiosity, since we were talking about odds for the City game, what odds would you give us to not win the title? Would be interesting to hear what a "plot twist" entails. I'm probably giving us a 55-60 % chance at winning it.

lorddulaarsenal

Those 2 points we were robbed of against Brentford would have given us enough of a cushion to afford losing to City and Liverpool. Gutting

James

QuincyAbeyie We're 8/13 to win it with bookmakers, so around 58% to do so taking out margin. Other side of that obviously being 42% (11/8 - which is the price City are).

RocktheCasbah

QuincyAbeyie Well, if you were that interested, you could always read the article and find out. 😃

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie I feel once you factor in the fifth cause, ie the narrative or meaning-making adjunct to the original four causes of Aristotle (material, efficient, formal and final) devised by obscure Neoplatonists of the middle ages, we simply will win it.

Happily I'm able to make this assertion without the use of mathematical handwaving, which as Henri Bergson so incontrovertibly demonstrated in his landmark essay "The Possible and the Real" is no more than a figment of mastery of the stochastic determination of the future facilitated by an anxious, deceptive retrojection of known outcomes into the past. Inshallah.

QuincyAbeyie

James sounds about right to me.

The reason I'm asking is because maybe we actually agree about our chances and it's just that BW and RtC's threshold for "plot twist" is lower than mine. I certainly don't consider 42% plot twist territory and my guess is that they don't either, and that therefore they must have different percentages in mind.

@RocktheCasbah apologies if you did quantify the chances you're giving us of the title. I skimmed the article at work but didn't see it.

RocktheCasbah

QuincyAbeyie I skimmed the article at work but didn't see it.

a fate I fear has befallen me many a time... 🙂

Anyway, no, I haven't specifically quantified it. What I have said though is that I don't think City have in it them to put together the sort of run they're likely to win to need the title. They haven't had that form all season - and I should have gone a little deeper on this, their best sequence of games is 4 wins (games 7-10), although they will equal that if they win their next game, home to Liverpool. Next best, 2 consecutive wins x 4.

I'm not stupid, I know the fact that they haven't done it all season doesn't mean that they won't now. I just think it will be extremely difficult for them to put that form together, especially with the Champions League fixtures to come.

On the other hand, Arsenal have put together sequences of 5, 4, 5 again and are currently on a 6 game winning run in the Premier League - with no further distractions, apart from the obvious one.

Arsenal have only lost 3 Premier League games all season. I don't believe we're looking at a team which is going to go to Newcastle, Liverpool and City themselves (or anywhere else) and shit the bed. If you feel differently about it, that's cool, I'm not here to persuade anyone - at the end of the day nobody can say for sure what will happen. What I am trying to do, though, is explain to you why I feel the way I do.

And whilst I accept that there is, of course, a chance for City to win the title, I genuinely believe that, all things considered, the greater likelihood is that we finish the job and bring it home.

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