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Next 10: Pivotal

Don Pacifico

Fair enough! Was more a reflection of the fact it will hurt more to lose the more confident we are.

RocktheCasbah

Interesting that you have that perception of me, I'm not sure it's borne out by my posting. Or my articles for Daily Cannon (but I don't know who reads those, tbf) Obviously, this season has gone beyond wildest dreams, but (unlike the rest of you who were getting ready to sack everyone) I thought top 3 was very doable before a ball was kicked - there is a post here somewhere...

I'm just generally not a fan of extreme reactions either way - we were never as bad last year as everyone thought, and I don't think we should be booking the open top bus just yet. But of course, it is exciting, how can we not be excited by what's ahead?

I am Arsenal Till I Die

RocktheCasbah We may not win it, but I feel reasonably comfortable saying it is ours to lose now.

I'd be as excited if I knew the full extent of the Saliba injury. At this point, I can't see us getting anything from St. James', Anfield, and Etihad with Holding at RCB.

Think I've said it in the past as well, but if we are able to play our first XI for the remaining games, think we will win it.

RocktheCasbah

I am Arsenal Till I Die

what, about this Arsenal side this season, leads you to think we're just going to lose those games? We've only lost two away games all season and one of those was a right stitch up. I get that they'll be difficult, but don't underestimate the pressure City will be under when we go to them, the after effects of their CL quarter final and their busy April generally. And we haven't been top of the league all season by accident. Newcastle are good, sure, the league table says we are a lot better, same with Liverpool (although I do understand that, historically at least, we have good reason to fear that trip).

I am Arsenal Till I Die

RocktheCasbah I've actually stated (verbatim) that "we'd win at a canter" if we have our first XI available. So o do think I've been one of the more confident ones here in the recent past.

My worry though is the fact that we will have to play Rob Holding in those away games. And he is not only a vastly inferior defender than Saliba but he also completely hinders the way we are able to play. Its one thing to play against Edouard at home and completely different to play against Haaland at the Etihad or Gakpo or Jota at Anfield.

QuincyAbeyie

Come on RtC, surely you of all people can understand why someone is being overly pragmatic. You didn't even want to talk about the title as a possibility not that long ago. 😆

RocktheCasbah

QuincyAbeyie well, there's being overly pragmatic and there's worrying about something which our form this season suggests is extremely unlikely.

I'm going to have to go back and read some of my posts, because it's clear that you and Clrnc have got an idea of me and what I've thought of this season that I don't really recognise. I would say though that if I have expressed caution, it's because I'm old enough to remember May 2022 and the massive bennies that people were throwing on here after the Newcastle game.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie

I actually just looked up odds on Liverpool Arsenal. The bookies have them at 27% for an Arsenal win and 31% for a Liverpool win. I can’t see City odds, but assuming they are similar, then two losses would be around 10%, assuming they’re independent events. Even if City has a 40% chance of winning, that’s still only 12% for two Arsenal losses. The most likely outcome is a mixed result across the two games (draw and loss, loss and win, or draw and win). Two wins also highly unlikely.

James

Claudius City will be around 8/11 (58%) to beat us. Liverpool 7/5 (41%). Looking at around 3/1 double (give or take margin) so around a 25% double.

James

Don Pacifico Talking of odds/percentages, BBC produced an article the other day that some of you may find interesting:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65013772

I’d quite like this company to lay me the 4/1 at Anfield and 5/4 at West Ham. Stopped reading as soon as I saw those.

Claudius

James thanks. Didn’t realise City was that bleak for us. 25% chance of 2 defeats is quite high, so anything that other than that is welcome especially not losing to city.

Burnwinter

Wouldn't be totally surprised if we beat City, aside from all this algebra. We've looked capable.

goon

Burnwinter going to need a percentage mate.

Rohit

daredevil We win at the Etihad and we will be in a position to absorb 2 losses. Title is definitely ours to lose. City will drop points themselves as the effects of a long season catch up.

James

Claudius I’m confident our chances are better than those given to us by “Nielsen's Gracenote” anyway. They have City at 66% win probability against us. They’re 63% (4/7) to beat Liverpool a week on Saturday in the betting, and that’s with margin through it.

Numbers in that article are nonsense, especially those away from home. That said, City’s also look a bit shy, so they probably have home field advantage factored too high.

FEBravo

James

For City away, I'd say it's 50-30-20 (L-D-W), and for Liverpool more like 30-40-30.

Which means our probabilities in terms of points would be, with those figures:

0: 15%
1: 29%
2: 12%
3: 21%
4: 17%
6: 6%

James

FEBravo Draw % in that Liverpool game is too high, but I’m just showing my pedantry now.

Don Pacifico

So based on that, just under a 50% chance that we'll get through those two matches with a point or less...?

Qwiss

Don Pacifico and just over a 50% chance we get through with 2 or more.

goon

Don Pacifico if the draw is against City 1 point wouldn’t be that bad. In fact I’d be tempted to take that right now.

Don Pacifico

Qwiss guess you can tell how full my glass is. 😉

Burnwinter

goon 50-30-20 LDW a la @FEBravo seems very pessimistic.

I'd say more 50-10-40. I don't rate the draw, our matches against City have been dialled to eleven past two seasons.

I'd even say 40-10-50 and though I'd be right, sometimes you need to add pointless pessimism to be taken seriously.

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