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RocktheCasbah

QuincyAbeyie well, there's being overly pragmatic and there's worrying about something which our form this season suggests is extremely unlikely.

I'm going to have to go back and read some of my posts, because it's clear that you and Clrnc have got an idea of me and what I've thought of this season that I don't really recognise. I would say though that if I have expressed caution, it's because I'm old enough to remember May 2022 and the massive bennies that people were throwing on here after the Newcastle game.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie

I actually just looked up odds on Liverpool Arsenal. The bookies have them at 27% for an Arsenal win and 31% for a Liverpool win. I can’t see City odds, but assuming they are similar, then two losses would be around 10%, assuming they’re independent events. Even if City has a 40% chance of winning, that’s still only 12% for two Arsenal losses. The most likely outcome is a mixed result across the two games (draw and loss, loss and win, or draw and win). Two wins also highly unlikely.

James

Claudius City will be around 8/11 (58%) to beat us. Liverpool 7/5 (41%). Looking at around 3/1 double (give or take margin) so around a 25% double.

James

Don Pacifico Talking of odds/percentages, BBC produced an article the other day that some of you may find interesting:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65013772

I’d quite like this company to lay me the 4/1 at Anfield and 5/4 at West Ham. Stopped reading as soon as I saw those.

Claudius

James thanks. Didn’t realise City was that bleak for us. 25% chance of 2 defeats is quite high, so anything that other than that is welcome especially not losing to city.

Burnwinter

Wouldn't be totally surprised if we beat City, aside from all this algebra. We've looked capable.

goon

Burnwinter going to need a percentage mate.

I am Arsenal Till I Die

RocktheCasbah I've actually stated (verbatim) that "we'd win at a canter" if we have our first XI available. So o do think I've been one of the more confident ones here in the recent past.

My worry though is the fact that we will have to play Rob Holding in those away games. And he is not only a vastly inferior defender than Saliba but he also completely hinders the way we are able to play. Its one thing to play against Edouard at home and completely different to play against Haaland at the Etihad or Gakpo or Jota at Anfield.

Rohit

daredevil We win at the Etihad and we will be in a position to absorb 2 losses. Title is definitely ours to lose. City will drop points themselves as the effects of a long season catch up.

James

Claudius I’m confident our chances are better than those given to us by “Nielsen's Gracenote” anyway. They have City at 66% win probability against us. They’re 63% (4/7) to beat Liverpool a week on Saturday in the betting, and that’s with margin through it.

Numbers in that article are nonsense, especially those away from home. That said, City’s also look a bit shy, so they probably have home field advantage factored too high.

FEBravo

James

For City away, I'd say it's 50-30-20 (L-D-W), and for Liverpool more like 30-40-30.

Which means our probabilities in terms of points would be, with those figures:

0: 15%
1: 29%
2: 12%
3: 21%
4: 17%
6: 6%

James

FEBravo Draw % in that Liverpool game is too high, but I’m just showing my pedantry now.

Don Pacifico

So based on that, just under a 50% chance that we'll get through those two matches with a point or less...?

Qwiss

Don Pacifico and just over a 50% chance we get through with 2 or more.

goon

Don Pacifico if the draw is against City 1 point wouldn’t be that bad. In fact I’d be tempted to take that right now.

Don Pacifico

Qwiss guess you can tell how full my glass is. 😉

Burnwinter

goon 50-30-20 LDW a la @FEBravo seems very pessimistic.

I'd say more 50-10-40. I don't rate the draw, our matches against City have been dialled to eleven past two seasons.

I'd even say 40-10-50 and though I'd be right, sometimes you need to add pointless pessimism to be taken seriously.

Gurgen

These calculations will only drive you crazy. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. We can't predict anything and the only game worth worrying about is the next one.

QuincyAbeyie

If you're risk neutral then I reckon you'll find plenty of expected value with the bookies if those are your odds.

James

QuincyAbeyie No reckon about it, he absolutely will haha. Arsenal will not be any shorter than 10/3 at City.

I’m showing my hand too much here.

Burnwinter

James QuincyAbeyie

😂 Well gotta say, I'd be okay with 10/3 if the difference was chewed up by an overestimate of the draw. 55-10-35, say.

Feels like it's been years since we drew with City. I can't remember it under Arteta. I think everything points to a greater likelihood of City treating this as a "must win" on the date, including the theory the league won't be their most sincere focus. There's clearly an extra layer of emotion for the coaches as well, even if they deny it, and then there are the Jesus and Zinchenko storylines.

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