Next 10: Pivotal: Page 6 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Next 10: Pivotal

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter True. I guess that begs the question - why are we worried of facing teams in good form, if it's bad form that is worrying? Or does any kind of form, good or bad, mean an increased likelyhood of playing well against us? 😃

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie You begin to grasp the paradox of interpretation that lives in the heart of every meaning-making ape, making all these precious "facts" and "logic" irrelevant 🙃

Don Pacifico

QuincyAbeyie Fair do, I used the wrong expression.

By the law of averages, I had to get at least one thing wrong...

RocktheCasbah

I was just doing some maths, based on Arteta & Guardiola's points per game historically and this season. I won't bore you all with the specifics, but whichever way you look at it, it looks like it's going to be too close to call (no shit, Sherlock!) That game in Manchester towards the end of next month is going to be the biggest game we'll have played since the Champions League semi final that we've all erased from our memories.

goon

I dunno about math, but all the predictor things I do have us running out comfortable winners. Based on that I think it's in the bag.

Don Pacifico

Had a quick hash at predicting the remainder of the season and we lost out by a couple of points. Getting at least a draw at the Etihad is going to be really important I reckon.

RocktheCasbah

Don Pacifico absolutely. Win it (and I do believe we can do so) and we're basically firing up the open top bus - or should be.

Gurgen

Game by game lads 😉

Meatwad

psychologically I hope we we win that extra game we have in between now and when we go to their place.

I am Arsenal Till I Die

In all likelihood, City's game away at Brighton(which, as a game in hand, is as hard as it can get outside the top 4) will get postponed if either of them win their FA Cup QFs. So by the time we get to Manchester we'd have had the chance to put more points on the board and potentially increase our lead with our games against Palace and Soton at home. Avoid defeat there and at least match all of City's remaining results week on week.

Hope they get Madrid or Bayern in the CL.

Clrnc

They should have dropped points at Palace, I hope Salah can do them again and Southampton turns up like last year and get a draw against them.

We really need that cushion before we go to the Etihad.

Rohit

Guardiola today said his time at City will be defined by City's success in the CL. Could be mind games but there is truth in it and if City go deep in the CL I can see them dropping points we don't expect them too.

Qwiss

Rohit I definitely think if we can stay ahead of them he'll start to shift his focus. Its not always massive differences for them but it does seem he's minding KDB for some reason and I think he'd leave him out of PL games ahead of big CL games. He'll also be more likely to play his inexperienced defenders in the league too. That sort of combination would hopefully lead to a few upsets against them.

HomeSteak

Rohit he is right. And is also a chip on his shoulder, never won it without Messi, Xavi-Iniesta. Never won it without having by far the best team in the competition. Fucked it up with Bayern(still think Bayern regressed going from Heynckes to Pep) and of course he has fucked it up in hilarious fashion with City, year after year.

Anyway, the last 10 boys. What are we thinking?

Qwiss

HomeSteak never won it without Messi, Xavi-Iniesta.

and buying the refs

IBL

HomeSteak still not confident, VAR has screwed us out of valuable points and a couple of bad results will change everything.
Second place is obviously a massive achievement but would be gutting to get this far and not win it.

Claudius

We need to lose both the City and Liverpool games for me to start worrying. Probably a 10-15% outcome. I’ll sweat then.

Clrnc

Claudius really? Those 2 grounds are the hardest to go to and you think we just have a 15% chance at most to lose both when we haven't even draw at both grounds for ages

goon

Winning at Anfield would be huge, would almost make Etihad a free hit imo. Lose against Liverpool and it all gets a bit tense, but that also depends on what City themselves do.

QuincyAbeyie

To be fair we haven't been not shit in ages either. But yeah, the chance is probably more than 10-15%.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie

I actually just looked up odds on Liverpool Arsenal. The bookies have them at 27% for an Arsenal win and 31% for a Liverpool win. I can’t see City odds, but assuming they are similar, then two losses would be around 10%, assuming they’re independent events. Even if City has a 40% chance of winning, that’s still only 12% for two Arsenal losses. The most likely outcome is a mixed result across the two games (draw and loss, loss and win, or draw and win). Two wins also highly unlikely.

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