Bit of a snapshot with winter market clock winding down.

Players out on loan, club loaned to, time to contract expiry (from seasons end):
Balogun -> Reims -> 2 years left
Lokonga -> Crystal Palace -> 3 years left
Marquinhos -> Norwich -> 4 years left
Maitland-Niles -> Southampton -> 5 months left from now
Mari -> Monza -> 1 year left
Patino -> Blackpool -> 2 years left
Pépé -> Nice -> 1 year left
Runnarson -> Alanyspor -> 1 year left
Soares -> Fulham -> 1 year left
Taveres -> Marseille -> 2 years left
Trusty -> Birmingham City - 5 months from now?

Players with a year or less remaining on contract (at seasons end):
Holding -> 1 year left
Nelson -> 5 months from now
Xhaka -> 1 year left

Players that some have recently suggested parting with, time remaining on contract (at seasons end):
Smith-Rowe -> 3 years left
Tierney -> 3 years left

How much is Edu/Whoever at the helm going to be able to generate from sales in the summer? Who to keep, extend loan or sell? I have consistently held doubts about Edu and he wasn't able to generate 60 million in outgoings last summer. There are a lot of options he has to play with in the summer to make a better fist of it. The outside perception on Arsenal players will be much better than last summer, and a fair few players on loan are having good stints. I also want us to be a club that utilises a healthy proportion of operating revenue and sales to fund its player purchases. Particularly if we'll outlay 100+ million on two midfielders. That means something to me in an age of financial imprudence, gross inequality.

    KingslandBarge
    Thanks for putting this down. Super helpful. This is what I think the club will do this summer

    Sell / release: Maitland Niles, Mari, Trusty, Runnarson, Pepe, Holding, Nelson, Tierney Rekik, Azeez
    Loan: Marquinhos, Lokonga, Tavares, Patino
    Keep on squad/extend: Xhaka, Balogun
    Question mark: ESR

    The reason I have a question mark over ESR is that for those who are insistent that Edu needs to make a big sale, that is the most logical option. Either that or Balogun. Tierney gets £20-25m for a newly promoted club or Everton / West Ham type.

        Little concerned seeing Balogun with just 2 years left.

        I would imagine we’ll need to address that this summer with a boost of his wages if he’s to extend his contract.

        Hard to find minutes for a 3rd choice CF here. Will have to go out on loan again next season with an emergency recall clause.

        I am Arsenal Till I Die don't agree with that.

        We've had two seasons of not playing many matches - next season, hopefully we'll have a good enough squad not to get knocked out of both cup competitions early and we're going to be taking on the cream of the European crop.

        We will need a bigger squad than we have had for the last two seasons and you only have to look at the injury to Gabriel Jesus and see how short we could end up being - I mean we're already without a proper centre forward back up to Eddie now. In addition, Balogun is a proper talent, I don't think Arteta and Edu turned the big guns on him just to let him go a couple of years later.

            Claudius a "big sale" shouldn't be done for the sake of it. What even is a big sale in terms of ESR? Is his stock as high as when Villa came in for him? There is absolutely no way ESR should sold this summer. Get him fit and see where he's at over the next 18 months.

            We need to get value from the sales we want to make, not to sell of one of the best home grown players we've had in the Emirates era just so Edu can quiet some whingers.

                RocktheCasbah 100% agree. I think there should be a very healthy competition for the forward spot between Jesus, Eddie and Balogun. There isn't a whole lot between them and they offer different strengths so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. There is also a bit of flexibility with Jesus being able to play on the wing and even the other 2 can fill in there in a real sticky situation (or just off the bench for a run out).

                The Champions League not only provides more available minutes for these guys but it inevitably leads to more injuries too. We are pushing the players though what Wenger would call the red zone already this season. Next that will be even more evident. Right now we can't even bring on a striker for Eddie towards the end of games when he's exhausted. TBH I'd love to have Flo back for the rest of this season, though I understand why they've chose not to bring him back.

                  I don't think that's realistic. For starters however close they are in terms of ability there will be a pecking order. Jesus will likely sit at the top and he'll most like start 70%+ of all league and CL games if fit. Eddie is establishing himself here so will likely get the bulk of what's left - and given the limited mins he'd want to likely start LC and FA Cup games too.

                  That leaves very little game time for Balogun to propel himself up the pecking order or mins to develop. I know they can play wide but I don't think that does them any favours. Loan him out to a PL club imo and see what he can do.

                  I don't think having a rigid pecking order like that is constructive and I'd be disappointed if I found that was how Arteta looked at it. Players should earn their place in the team.

                  I'm not referring to a rigid pecking order where someone plays purely on reputation. But there will be a natural order based on ability, form, experience, trust etc. To be able to earn your place you need to be able to build on those with mins on the pitch, but you can't do it when there's two guys who already have credit in the bank, are relatively young and are performing well.

                  Qwiss agree with you. I’m not so stuck on the idea that we need big sales either. I’m comfortable with keeping ESR and Balogun because I like them and think that they will have a contribution to make in a big season.

                  For me only big sale I would do right now is Tierney. And then clean up the other guys at the edge of the squad - Nelson, Tavares, Pepe, AMN etc.

                      RocktheCasbah I look around the other big squads and none of them have three out and out CFs. I think, in an ideal world we have two players for each position (which will mean we need to bring in a winger or sign Reiss on) and then additional versatile players in the squad that will fill in at CF if and when required. As of now, we will have Trossard, Martinelli, and to a lesser extent ESR who could do that.

                      I'd love to hold on to as many Hale End talents as possible but somewhere we need to find the right balance and we will need to make some hard calls for that. A bloated squad with unhappy players isn't ideal. Look at what has happened ti Sambi. I don't think he went on loan just because Arteta thought he wasn't ready 18 months after signing him. I think he went on loan because he was unhappy and his attitude wasn't right.

                      If Jesus is fit, Eddie sits on the bench in the PL and CL and gets sub appearances. And then starts domestic cups while Flo doesn't make the PL and CL squads and sits on the bench and gets sub appearances the cup. We then end up diminishing his value. Similar to what we did with AMN, Chambers etc while he runs down his contract.

                          I am Arsenal Till I Die

                          I get the concern about Lokonga and the wider issue of bloated squads, it is a fine balance.

                          However, to me the notion that we should now be looking for a winger when we have two of the best wide players in the league AND Smith Rowe and Trossard as well as Vieira waiting in the wings (ha!) seems a bit mad to me - and that's without considering Reiss Nelson, which James will probably say we shouldn't be doing.

                          When you look at what's happened with Gabriel Jesus injury, we are now currently relying on Eddie Nketiah to stay fit until Jesus comes back - we don't know how long it will take him to get up to speed. So, we're one injury away from having to make do at centre forward; Trossard &/or Martinelli might be able to do a job there, but how good do you feel about betting the house on them doing so when there's a league title on the line?

                          As for next season, Arsenal are, I think it's fair to assume, likely to play more than 50 games next season. We've been lucky in some regards that Jesus injury came during the World Cup as once through Christmas, Arsenal's fixture schedule has been relatively light (bizarrely, our only PL fixtures currently scheduled for midweek are the Man City ones). The same injury this time next year would be more problematic.

                          Just go to go back to your starting point, which was

                          I am Arsenal Till I Die The way I see it, I don't think we can have both him and Eddie in the squad. If we get a good offer for him, we should sell.

                          I just think it's way too early to say we should write Balogun off and get rid of him this summer. He could end up saving Arsenal millions in the market, especially this transfer market which Chelsea have rendered absolutely ridiculous. It's actually something I was thinking about the other day. Arsenal can hardly plead poverty in relation to most clubs in the PL, but what Chelsea have done this winter has been obscene really & perhaps we do need to focus more on developing our own players, it's not like we don't have a track record.

                          I realise having written everything I have above that what is more likely to happen than anything else is that he will probably go on loan again - and I'd probably be okay with that. But sell him? Not yet, not for me.

                                RocktheCasbah I understand the point but I think both of us are making arguments based on different potential circumstances (Jesus getting a long-term injury v not getting injured at all). My only qualm with your logic is that we can argue that about any position in the squad, no?

                                For instance, we have Jorginho as a Partey back-up now. If Partey gets injured at any point next season (which he is prone to), Jorginho will have to play all the minutes in his position next season. Same with Tomiyasu or Trossard and so on. We cannot have three players in each position.

                                I think the key to good squad management is having a high-functioning, lean but versatile squad. City seem to do that as well with having a core of 16/17 core players and that is what we should build towards. Think Bernardo who plays on the wing and in midfield, same with Foden, Ake, Stones etc. I can't think of many teams who have three players for a single position. The third choice is almost always a makeshift.

                                RocktheCasbah realise having written everything I have above that what is more likely to happen than anything else is that he will probably go on loan again - and I'd probably be okay with that. But sell him? Not yet, not for me.

                                And honestly, I will be fine with that. My initial point was that accommodating both in the squad might stall the development of Balogun especially after the stellar season he is having in France. Imagine going from scoring 20 goals in the season to not making the matchday squad and having to play with the U21s to stay match fit.

                                If we can get him to sign an extension and get him a PL loan, that would be a great option too. But he is going to want to play, that is for sure.

                                      I am Arsenal Till I Die Yeah, that's fair. I just feel centre forward is quite a specific position to have to make do in (I'm still scarred by the memory of Arshavin being monstered by Ferdinand & Vidic at the Emirates in 2010...) And I think Jesus ability to play from the right not only gives us the option to rest the Ealing legend, but to create space in the team for Nketiah AND Balogun (without factoring in injuries, which will inevitably happen). Although I'm not suggesting this will happen often.

                                      Interestingly, in the light of Balogun's hat-trick last night, Arseblog's been having a similar discussion - only, with himself!

                                      https://arseblog.com/2023/02/baloguns-goalscoring-opens-doors-for-him-and-arsenal/

                                      • goon replied to this.

                                          People need to stop being sentimental about young academy players

                                          50 games or not, the starter usually plays 70% of the games barring injury

                                          This isn't football manager where you're rotating 3 players over a season

                                          At the end of the day, the club needs to make the right decisions to get the best players for each position

                                            Gunner89 Sure, but given that most people weren't convinced by Eddie even after last season's run in, I don't think it is, or should be, a black and white decision. I understand people's fears of risking another AMN situation, where we have completely fucked his value, but I think we have a bit more time here.

                                            Also, is there some sort of rule against having sentimental fans? The whole point of watching football is, for me, allowing yourself to dream. As a decision maker at Arsenal, Edu doesn't have that luxury, but I do.

                                              Gunner89 think it's tricky to find a good balance between sentimentality, pragmatism and ambition as fan/fanbase/club. If one can even put those to a venn diagram. I would hate to be one of the fanbases with no sentimentality, and players treated like cattle (over towards putney bridge for e.g.). Think of some of us can recalibrate, for sure. I prefer to be a sentimental slut.

                                              In order not to have to make tough decisions with players we really like/rate, I would really like Edu generate profits from the other players. I can just, just about excuse him last 2 years struggling to content with outside perceptions/perceived value on players like Guendouzi, Kolasinic, Mari, Torriera. I actually think those are some decent players. It felt like he had to sell Willock because he couldn't source value elsewhere. I am expecting more than that this time around.
                                              We should be aiming to break even on players like Mari, Soares, Holding(if he leaves). We should be prepping for substantive profit if we need to flip Tavares, Balogun. If it makes sense, we should be aiming to renegotiate terms with Nelson, Trusty, Balogun, Pépé with new sell clauses, or with intent to sell. Generate something healthy from the first two categories I listed earlier this week, and it doesn't even have to get to thinking about Smith-Rowe or Tierney.

                                              FWIW I like both and don't want them sold. It's only about injury/availability with Smith-Rowe for me, and I otherwise questioned the Mudryk pursuit. I feel a confident Tierney as an overlapping FB is a really nice asset in the team. Maybe another development challenge for Arteta as manager is to weave in alternative tactics and sets that sometimes accommodate and complement the strengths of some his players, rather than only finding and fitting players in to predefined profiles. Used differently, Tierney would be racking up assists and goals like Chillwell and Reece-James I feel.


                                                Gunner89 People need to stop being sentimental about young academy players

                                                I choose to be sentimental about our own players. It's okay.