Jesus: Page 32 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Jesus

Rohit

Absolutely love him. I am not sure he will become a consistent heavy goalscorer all of a sudden but then it does feel like he will have that one season when he will win he golden boot because everything just goes in. Hope it is with us. He is so silky, intelligent and smooth in everything he does other than in finishing.

Coombs

Finishing seems mental with him. He can stroke them in like it's nothing in uncompetitive situations, but tries too hard when it's the real deal. Needs to stop thinking about it so much.

Brazil is certainly not helpful in that regard.

goon

Coombs To an extent, but I don't think there's too much wrong with his approach to finishing chances to be fair.

I know people generally hate bringing luck into anything football related, but I do actually think he's been unlucky. Go back and have a look, the large majority of his misses are on target and relatively well hit, often with keepers getting toes and fingertips in the way. If his shot squirmed under Leno's leg no one would be saying it was lucky. Don's law of averages suggests half of them should have gone in.

Don Pacifico

goon Don's law of averages suggests half of them should have gone in.

Don's Law of Averages ®️

In all seriousness though, I'm with Claud on this one. Whilst I think there are fine margins involved in this, it's those fine margins that distinguish the top finishers from ordinary ones (eg. taking a shot a fraction earlier before the 'keeper closes the angle further, or angling that shot a few degrees more left/right to put it out of reach). And I think that's maybe a mentality issue more than a technical one because as mentioned, his technique is super.

Claudius

Don’t think it’s luck. He has a multiple season streak of finishing below xG. He’s a bad finisher. But he generates tons of chances and is elite on every other dimension of being a forward. So it’s a minor issue.

goon

Claudius He is and has, but in % terms it's his worst season. He's averaged 20% below his xG at City, this season it's just shy of 50%

I'm not suggesting he's a great finisher, I'm suggesting even if he keeps doing what he's doing the goals will come. The last 7 games or so without a goal are an anomaly imo.

Burnwinter

Don Pacifico And I think that's maybe a mentality issue

Didn't the Brazil national setup get Jesus halfway to a nervous breakdown by announcing to the press he wasn't a real striker and couldn't play at 9?

Meatwad

he's not unlucky. when you kick the ball at the keeper he's expected to save it. i use to hate that word during the wenger years talking about keepers playing blinders against us and how we were unlucky that day. no they weren't, stop kicking the ball to the keeper.

Claudius

Meatwad but also important to note from that list. That worst finisher list is a bunch of guys who generate a lot of chances. So while they may not finish as well as a Haaland or Son, they are making chances. And football is more a chance creation game than a finishing one

Clrnc

Agreed. His misses are mostly what commentators always says, he hit it too well.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius yeah, but the stat doesn't say that they're bad footballers either. It's just about finishing, a completely isolated stat. No matter what stat is presented you could always say "but what about other stats?"

If someone said Jesus is a bad striker because of this stat, then it'd be fair to say "but he creates tons of chances". But it isn't a case like that, it's just saying that he's a bad finisher, so chances created isn't relevant.

Burnwinter

If he actually scored at a rate in line with his other attributes he'd be in the top handful of forwards on the globe.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie please read my earlier posts on this point

Don Pacifico

Burnwinter oh wow, I didn't realise that. I'm aware of the criticism he got after the 2018 for not scoring and that he's had a bit of a complex about whether or not he's a #9 but didn't realise stuff like that had been said and done!

Qwiss

Very few players consistently over or under perform their xg long term. Nketiah for instance usually scores around his xg. Last couple of months he hasn't, that's a statistical anomaly. Strikers like Kane and Haaland consistently over perform vs xg. That's not an anomaly, they're just lethal. Jesus scores under his xg season after season, it is what it is. If he didn't he'd still be at City as he has everything else going for him.

It doesn't really matter when he helps others score so often. It's all about balance. When Ode, Saka, Martenilli and potentially Trossard are all banging them in having a 20+ striker isn't a necessity.

Claudius

Don Pacifico
He’s had an awful time as Brazil 9. The biggest issue was the 2018 World Cup where he didn’t score. He did all the Jesus stuff we have come to love, but in Brazil the 9 must score and that became a national talking point. So he has had to bear this burden since. That’s why that injury was so heartbreaking

Pepe LeFrits

🤤

SimplyThePest

I have probably given this more thought than I should have but I wonder whether Jesus could operate as an '8' in our system, e.g.

Partey
Odegaard Jesus
Saka Trossard Martinelli

For me, at least on paper, he offers a lot of what we need in that role. Strong, carries the ball well, press-resistant, fairly quick, can play a guy in and can get a goal. He'd also be able to interchange with the players in front of him.

goon

SimplyThePest why would you move someone who’s so good in the most demanding role in football and put them somewhere else?

Surely if you wanted to try someone as an 8 it would be Trossard.

Don Pacifico

This reminds me of an instance years ago when someone (user by the name of Grampus 8 if I remember correctly) suggested Ameobi could replace (Patrick) Vieira. 😉

SimplyThePest

goon you wouldn’t. Although he drops into those sorts of positions and does what I suggested anyway.

Claudius

goon yup. Trossard has played as 8. He’s also played at fullback. Jesus is a striker. Wants to play striker. Leave him there.

When Jesus drops off it’s useful in that it clears the front and creates space for the other forwards. It also drags defenders about. A stationary forward like Nketiah helps keep defenses organised, compact and always facing us

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