Jesus: Page 20 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Jesus

Burnwinter

Ronaldo?! Floating around in this squad with its youth and positive vibes, with a £400,000 a week pay packet? You fucking having a laugh?! Good grief.

KingslandBarge

It was fun to guess who suggested this on the previous page 🙂

Claudius

Regarding concerns about us not having enough goal-scorers.. we basically look like pre-Haaland Manchester City. They were scoring 80-100 in a collective effort where nobody was contributing more than than 16 or 17 goals.

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Burnwinter

To me that sounds very much like an argument we need a Haaland to win the league.

jones

KingslandBarge wrote:
It was fun to guess who suggested this on the previous page 🙂

😆 oh dear.

MistaT

😆

Clrnc

😆

Claudius

Burnwinter wrote:
To me that sounds very much like an argument we need a Haaland to win the league.

We are on track to score 90 goals without an alpha. So why do we need one?

QuincyAbeyie

The difference is that we're on track to doing it while City did it. I don't think we will.

Burnwinter

Because City are on track to score 120 goals, and it seems pretty arguable that those points we're dropping might be saved by a forward who takes his chances more consistently?

Jesus had an xG of 0.82 last time we dropped points, and failed to slot home some gettable chances. If anything we're lucky that his 9 match finishing crisis hasn't cost us more.

I'm talking about what it'd take to win the league, not just "giving it a good go", score 90 goals, have a few good winning runs, redefine the commentariat's perceptions of Arsenal or whatever. Despite this Arsenal side being consistent, dominant, well organised and packed with talent, the way I see it we're not set up win it all based on just such fine margins.

Burnwinter

None of this is an aspersion on Jesus by the way, love the guy, and as everyone's pointing out, subtract him and you've got a lot of vital activity, from assists to defensive graft, that isn't goal-scoring to compensate for.

Claudius

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
The difference is that we're on track to doing it while City did it. I don't think we will.

we're on track until we aren't.

by the way, at 12 games, football data is very predictive. the one thing that could kill us now is a season-defining injury like Partey, Jesus or Saka.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius wrote:
Quincy Abeyie wrote:
The difference is that we're on track to doing it while City did it. I don't think we will.

we're on track until we aren't.

by the way, at 12 games, football data is very predictive. the one thing that could kill us now is a season-defining injury like Partey, Jesus or Saka.

Just because we are on track doesn't mean we can't have opinions of what will happen. 😆

Hopefully Jesus won't end up 11 goals below his xG either, even if that's his "track".

Claudius

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
Claudius wrote:
we're on track until we aren't.

by the way, at 12 games, football data is very predictive. the one thing that could kill us now is a season-defining injury like Partey, Jesus or Saka.

Just because we are on track doesn't mean we can't have opinions of what will happen. 😆

Hopefully Jesus won't end up 11 goals below his xG either, even if that's his "track".

you can have an opinion. it's absolutely within your right. i'm just pointing out what data historically shows. we could undershoot or overshoot. even with this Jesus who for his career has undershot xG, we are still tracking 90 goals. don't know why you're so excited.

QuincyAbeyie

Is there any difference from not taking it for granted that we'll win the league even if we're on track to doing so?

Claudius

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
Is there any difference from not taking it for granted that we'll win the league even if we're on track to doing so?

like i said, there is variance against any mean. the analyst who did that trendline is quite good. if he wanted to, he could've shown our forecast with our 1 standard deviation distribution either side of that mean. but that graph would be unnecessarily complicated.

Burnwinter

If we did a similar trendline for City it'd show a bit more variation, but put them "on track" for well over 100 goals this season, and likely having the most prolific season in Premier League history.

We're up against a very strong rival and historically, a 90 goal season has not necessarily been adequate to winning the league. All the more rarely in recent seasons.

If anything our 90 goal trendline suggests we'll fall short. That's convenient because that's also what my eyes, gut and brain are telling me about this season.

Claudius

Burnwinter wrote:
If we did a similar trendline for City it'd show a bit more variation, but put them "on track" for well over 100 goals this season, and likely having the most prolific season in Premier League history.

We're up against a very strong rival and historically, a 90 goal season has not necessarily been adequate to winning the league. All the more rarely in recent seasons.

If anything our 90 goal trendline suggests we'll fall short. That's convenient because that's also what my eyes, gut and brain are telling me about this season.

City are the best team statistically in the league. Yes. So expectation is that they will eventually pass us. I still expect us to finish 2nd. Under no illusions. I was just referring to 90 goal pace - that I think we are good for it.

deardevil

Burnwinter wrote:
Ronaldo?! Floating around in this squad with its youth and positive vibes, with a £400,000 a week pay packet? You fucking having a laugh?! Good grief.

Bloody hell mate! It was tongue in cheek. 😆

I'm not for deviating from our transfer policy of signing young talented players, but the striker position is one where a veteran goalscorer could add quite a bit of value. A very talented young buck would obviously be preferable. Need to scout Chile/Uruguay for their next prodigy.

deardevil

Burnwinter wrote:
To me that sounds very much like an argument we need a Haaland to win the league.

The last three titles were won without a CF who scored more than 20 PL goals. That should demonstrate that a goal scoring CF is not a pre-requisite especially given how both Firmino and Jesus/Foden were used in title winning sides.

It's hard to shake off the notion that more goals from a CF = a greater chance of winning. But as we've seen with Ronaldo at United, he scores goals, but United's results are better without him.

And the team with a striker experiencing a goal drought is first, whilst the team with a record breaking striker is second.

I expect things to change and City to win, but the striker role has evolved, and you have to look at the functionality of the front three to see whether scoring goals or enabling the wide players is the main responsibility of the CF.

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