Jesus has scored a goal every other league game statistically over the last two seasons, that's pretty solid. The stats are even better if you include CL and cups but I don't feel those are as relevant.
We would be banking on him to take another step or two in his development, but if he played regularly I think he'd easily get 20 league goals per season. Although I take Qwiss's point that it might not happen if he gets starved by Arteta's football. He's the same age as Abraham but a lot more talented though.