I have the same instincts but who knows. He's just completed his hattrick.
I still think he'll stay. We're all guessing but if he genuinely wants to stay and Arsenal really want to keep him they'll find a middle ground eventually, probably in the form of clauses etc.
It's worth remembering his agent reps Saka, Nelson and Netiah too (among others, I'm sure), so it's all a vicious cycle. If he got Saka a great deal, he can use that to get Balogun a better deal and so on and so forth.