There is also the incredible fallout of the labor market in the US (the 6.6 million jobless claims in the first week of April, x10 the previous highest peak), the -50% annualized GDP estimates that will have ramifications in Europe and elsewhere. Speaking to investment banker friends this week and they are genuinely worried and preparing for unprecedented recession. I am starting to feel a bit of panic as well, but I feel there are too many unknowns, and I don't know what duration of lockdown these estimatations are incorporating.

A lot of emphasis and pressure developing on Merkel saving the EU.
https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_eu_can_emerge_stronger_from_the_pandemic_if_merkel_seizes_th

Plenty of speculation that there will be an extension on the post-Brexit trade talks now. I believe the preliminary draft text was due to be agreed by the end of June - that seems impossible at the moment.

jones wrote:

The European Central Bank has made a first estimate that it'll take €1.5 trillion to support the EU and keep its members from going bust under the cumulative pressure of businesses and national tax incomes collapsing everywhere. Germany and its group of sycophants Netherlands Austria and Finland have suggested an 'aid' package of just €500bn, on top of that 200bn of it are to come via ESM which allows any takers to loan a max of 2% of its sovereign debt (meaning less than 30bn for Spain and 40bn for Italy).

Quite aside from who should pay what - am I right in saying that the EU is the only major country/bloc to not have announced any major monetary package? The EU won't collapse though. Like you said the fallout of leaving a currency union when your economy is already hitting rock bottom is far too risky but equally there's no goodwill left to further federalise which means you're stuck with the sequel to the Holy Roman Empire for decades to come.

CNBC reporter in a state of shock over hearing that people don't give a toss about CEO:s and hedge fund managers:

Moved your post in here Klaus - I figure the other thread should be for monitoring the virus and various interventions only otherwise it'll just become massive.

Good move! I actually meant to post it in here but clicked on the wrong thread.

Klaus, thanks for posting that. 100% agree with it.

America needs to get serious about capitalism. The government can’t create an environment that rewards companies in good times but then removes the downside risk in bad times by placing the company as a guarantor of last resort. This will drive risky behavior by decision makers in companies, where CEOs typically have short tenures and downturns only come once a decade. Additionally, it kills competitiveness because it dulls rewards for companies that make sensible decisions that bolster them against the ebbs and flows of the market. What’s the point of building a robust firm if the government will rescue your ailing rivals.

As for billionaires, it goes back to my previous arguments about them. I’m not against billionaires like Chamath obviously is. What I am against, however, is a system that consistently encourages bad behavior and risk taking and rewards people handsomely for it all along the business lifecycle from startup to enterprise bankruptcy. It’s the distortions that I’m against, not the people. A recent good example was SoftBank planning to give Adam Neumann a $1,7bn golden parachute while 2,400 WeWork employees lost their jobs as a result of the house of cards he’d built. Fortunately, that’s been voided.

Update on the coronabond saga:

Italy’s finance minister triggered a political storm on Friday as he signed up to a eurozone rescue deal that involves the region’s European Stability Mechanism bailout fund, a politically toxic prospect in Rome. 

Roberto Gualtieri was among the ministers who signed up to a €500bn economic package late on Thursday night in a deal that was hailed as a major breakthrough in the battle against the economic pain wrought by the coronavirus-related lockdowns. 

But he and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte faced an immediate backlash as details of the arrangement emerged. Italy did not win any explicit reference to the concept of “coronabonds” — jointly issued debt underwritten by eurozone member states — yet at the same time it agreed to a package that contains a role for the ESM, which is viewed with deep suspicion in Rome. 

Mr Gualtieri’s compromise was heavily criticised by not only the opposition League party of Matteo Salvini, which denounced the minister as a “traitor” and called for a vote of no confidence, but also the Five Star Movement, which shares power with the centre-left Democratic party that the Italian finance minister belongs to. 

“We do not accept the ESM now and won’t accept it in the future . . . it is an unsuitable tool to face this crisis and is very dangerous,” Vito Crimi, the political leader of Five Star, said in an interview with Italy’s state-owned Radio 1.

Thursday’s breakthrough on immediate economic measures supporting businesses, workers and sovereigns was achieved after the Dutch government backed away from previous demands that ESM lending be made subject to tougher macroeconomic conditions. 

The core elements of the package are revised pandemic credit lines from the ESM that will be available within two weeks, a boost to the lending capacity of the European Investment Bank and a new €100bn unemployment insurance scheme proposed by the European Commission.

Ministers also agreed on setting up a “temporary, targeted” recovery fund to help trigger a post-lockdown economic rebound, but they have yet to settle key questions on the size and sources of funding for the tool, or indeed when it will be set up. 

The very inclusion of the ESM remains politically dangerous in Italy; Eurosceptic parties have long claimed the fund would impose draconian conditions in return for any lending to embattled sovereigns. Reacting to the deal, Mr Salvini in a tweet: “I’m horrified and I will ask for the resignation of an economy minister who has sold off our country.”

For his part, Mr Gualtieri expressed satisfaction for the result Italy obtained after it “fought a tough battle”, saying the criticisms of the deal were “ridiculous”. The deal meant that conditionality for the use of ESM financing was “off the table”, he argued. What is more, Italy had not given up on the idea of eurobonds. 

https://www.ft.com/content/f77dad8b-2827-4719-81da-3afaab1162ed

Klaus wrote:

CNBC reporter in a state of shock over hearing that people don't give a toss about CEO:s and hedge fund managers:

I was wondering how long it would take for the wannabe Shinners to start to tap into the rich veins of unease and boredom.
A nation united and co-operating is anathema to them, they have got to create divisions and enemies.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gemmaod1

Mirth wrote:

Klaus wrote:

CNBC reporter in a state of shock over hearing that people don't give a toss about CEO:s and hedge fund managers:

This image reminds me of what a failure the news media is when it comes to making hard decisions. They’re constantly in a prisoners’ dilemma. They should not be broadcasting the Dow Jones daily as it doesn’t inform the general public of anything useful. I think they just keep it because all the other networks do it. A bit like showing Trump ranting, lying and endangering the public with bad medical advice every evening.   

Even isolated from that ticker, and left only in the narrow context of the stock market, the headline is a farce.

I’m more concerned about the investment in Bio Anal systems

Anti-fracking campaigning has been a big thing where I live at the moment, but the combination of the OPEC-orchestrated fossil fuel price crash, and the epidemic has meant all fracking projects here in the Northern Territory being indefinitely shelved. For people who've been involved in these campaigns it's like they've won without a shot being fired.

This makes the present an ideal moment to look at energy transition, but the territorial government is actively hindering it, removing subsidies for home solar and refusing to look at major renewables projects.

y va marquer wrote:

I was wondering how long it would take for the wannabe  Shinners to start to tap into the rich veins of unease and boredom.
A nation united and co-operating is anathema to them, they have got to create divisions and enemies.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gemmaod1

Gemma isn't anything to do with Sinn Fein :hmm:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52279871

Economic predictions for the year by the OBR:

• 3.1 million (10% of the working population) to be unemployed
• deepest recession since the 1930s
• the longer it goes on the less chance of a return to normal.

One for the economic fallout thread Mirth? Yeah, I really really hope we don't extend beyond May 7th here in the UK (6 weeks net). Those estimates are based on 12 weeks of lockdown.

Qwiss! wrote:

y va marquer wrote:

I was wondering how long it would take for the wannabe  Shinners to start to tap into the rich veins of unease and boredom.
A nation united and co-operating is anathema to them, they have got to create divisions and enemies.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gemmaod1

Gemma isn't anything to do with Sinn Fein :hmm:

I said she was a "wannabe Shinner" i.e. she has assumed a republican platform, she is overlaying her complaints about restrictions of movement with references to the history of occupation. 

To be honest I know little about her - saw the flags, the regalia and the rhetoric on her twitter and thought she seemed like a less cute, less astute, less well drilled Shinner.
I didn't actually know this until today but she was of interest to them at one stage due to her being "[size=x-large]demonised by the political Establishment" for the standshe took on "real issues in the public interest".[/size]

The US Treasury department has reached an agreement with US airlines that paves the way for the sector to receive billions of dollars of aid to cover payroll costs during the pandemic, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The agreement come after days of testy exchanges between Donald Trump's administration and America’s leading passenger airlines over the terms of $25bn in grants to the industry allocated as part of the $2tn stimulus legislation enacted last month. An announcement was expected later on Tuesday.

In a statement, Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, said he welcomed the participation of the airlines in the stimulus programme – saying it would “support American workers and help preserve the strategic importance of the airline industry while allowing for appropriate compensation to the taxpayers”.

Mr Mnuchin said Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Air, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines, SkyWest Airlines and Southwest Airlines had all signed on.

The aviation sector has been among the hardest hit with travel grinding to a halt during the pandemic, and leading carriers facing a dangerous cash crunch.
Nevertheless, airlines resisted some of the conditions that the US Treasury was trying to impose on the government aid in recent days, triggering concern that they might choose bankruptcy as a better option.

y va marquer wrote:

Qwiss! wrote:

Gemma isn't anything to do with Sinn Fein :hmm:

I said she was a "wannabe Shinner" i.e. she has assumed a republican platform, she is overlaying her complaints about restrictions of movement with references to the history of occupation. 

To be honest I know little about her - saw the flags, the regalia and the rhetoric on her twitter and thought she seemed like a less cute, less astute, less well drilled Shinner.
I didn't actually know this until today but she was of interest to them at one stage due to her being "[size=x-large]demonised by the political Establishment" for the standshe took on "real issues in the public interest".[/size]

Apart from claiming Republicanism she's pretty much the opposite of the shinners. She was once a respected journalist too, seems to have lost the plot since her husband died. She's about as close to SF as Alex Jones is to Bernie Sanders.