Klaus wrote:
The US is going to have hundreds of thousands of deaths unless someone invents a vaccine and gets it out in the next few months. There's no way they'll flatten this. Stay safe mags, Doc, Meatwad, Bryant and whoever else is over there.
Hundreds of thousands of deaths is still a fairly small proportion of total deaths in the US per year - which is ca. 2.8 million. Furthermore, the corona fatalities and expected yearly fatalities are not disjoint sets. They are in fact largely overlapping, which is why I think the age adjusted death rate for the US in 2020 will not be that much different from the expected value. One difference might be that fatalities for 2020 will be more unevenly distributed.
Btw, the true number of infected cases is much higher (factor of 5-20) than 95.000, meaning that you're talking about ca. 1500 deaths among anything from 475000-1900000. I recommend this:
