Mirth wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:

You can't vote away anti-democratic tyranny. American tyranny will persist after Trump. Claiming other US presidents are different is exactly why tyranny has been normalised.

I broadly don't care about US politics anymore, if Americans can't bothered to organise around basics like gun control or some form of subsidised healthcare then it's a lost cause. My only skin in the game is the hope that Biden will be better for the environment than Trump.

I hear where Claud is coming from because millions of Americans have found the last four years difficult and another four years will be overwhelming. But, in truth, Trump while spewing a whole bunch of lies and mistruths, has also asked very personal questions that don't usually get asked of the establishment. A good President should not air dirty laundry in public and have riots in the street, it should be done covertly by the CIA, on another street - preferably in another continent. For the middle class the past four years are an extension of the 'Mitchell and Webb' sketch where folks have to ask themselves where they (the US) are, in fact, 'the baddies' and you effectively now have groups that think the US is either the best or worst place in the world.

Contrarian opinion number two - as much as I generally think Biden the candidate is better than Trump, I wonder if Biden losing will actually bring about a moment of reflection for the Democrats and set them straight. Now, another four years of Trump will not be pleasant, but broadly speaking American institutions still are strong enough to take it - even if they aren't as good as they used to be. But obviously I get to say this with the luxury of living in another country so I can make that bet. I understand why voters don't necessarily feel that way.

  
On contrarian opinion Number 2, American institutions aren't as strong as you'd think. They're highly dependent on the people in them. This was well laid out in a discussion by Ben Wittes, a Brookings fellow who said American government institutions are set up to prevent bad leaders like Trump but have failed completely. First, the two party system is designed to weed out inadequate leaders, but the Republican nomination system failed. Second, the Electoral College failed yet again, despite 3m people extra people preferring Clinton. Third, the congressional oversight process failed as Party affiliations overruled duties to branches of government. Thus, Trump was not investigated and stopped from making suspect decisions like firing Comey etc. Fourth, the impeachment process failed, despite Trump himself submitting prima facie evidence of crimes. So no, the institutions aren't strong. The only thing that worked was the popular vote, and it is an overwhelming popular vote you are counting on to remove Trump and and his enablers in the Senate. 

On opinion 1, that sounds a lot like that that football phenomenon where folks say "I wish we could lose the next few games just so the board can see just how bad things are". 

American government institutions have been set up to prevent outsiders - not just bad leaders. In this case there was an overlap. Ihe same opportunities nearly got Sanders into play too so it may not necessarily be a weakness in the fullness of time.

Klaus wrote:

I think Trump might win but I hope I'm wrong. People underrate how much hate there is for the political and medial elite though; way more than for the economical elite that Trump belongs to.

Does the US have a 'shy Tory' phenomenon? I imagine given how much voting for Trump is seen as a moral failure, it's likely that Trump's chances are understated particularly in swing states

Mirth wrote:
Klaus wrote:

I think Trump might win but I hope I'm wrong. People underrate how much hate there is for the political and medial elite though; way more than for the economical elite that Trump belongs to.

Does the US have a 'shy Tory' phenomenon? I imagine given how much voting for Trump is seen as a moral failure, it's likely that Trump's chances are understated particularly in swing states

Absolutely. 

For many people the first priority is their income (economy), and after that it's some tiering of country (democratic ideals), religion, and policy. I know plenty of individuals who won't vote for any Democrat simply because they're against tax increases. They will either vote for Trump, not vote, or vote for a Libertarian. 

Mirth wrote:
Klaus wrote:

I think Trump might win but I hope I'm wrong. People underrate how much hate there is for the political and medial elite though; way more than for the economical elite that Trump belongs to.

Does the US have a 'shy Tory' phenomenon? I imagine given how much voting for Trump is seen as a moral failure, it's likely that Trump's chances are understated particularly in swing states

That's what I think too. It's partly why polls were so bad at predicting the last election. More importantly though: I think Trump will be seen as someone who cares about the way the pandemic is hurting working class people and their businesses. While everyone dropped the ball spectacularly on this pandemic perhaps none other did it more so than the American media and the Democrats who, by default, took up every position as long as it was the exact opposite of what Trump advocated. It's going to come back to bite them at some stage, and that time might be now.

Let's see. Trump has taken over the role evacuated by Democrats who used to advocate for unions in the previous century. He is often simply dismissed as a racist. Although those are the talking points, the nationalism also points to an underlying anxiety about people's job security as jobs are exported to Mexico and China.

Too your point, Klaus, the pandemic is hurting working class people, so I think it will exacerbate these anxieties, and that underlying concern has not been addressed at this juncture by the opposition. The changing nature of work will only add to these woes going forward. Racism and xenophobia on the surface are often driven by hunger deep down.

Klaus wrote:

I think Trump might win but I hope I'm wrong. People underrate how much hate there is for the political and medial elite though; way more than for the economical elite that Trump belongs to.

The political and media elite and economic elite are all the one.

Qwiss! wrote:
Klaus wrote:

I think Trump might win but I hope I'm wrong. People underrate how much hate there is for the political and medial elite though; way more than for the economical elite that Trump belongs to.

The political and media elite and economic elite are all the one.

In absolute terms, sure.

Trump came from outside the political sphere in the last election though and it was a big reason for his popularity. He has kept trying to cultivate that perception over the last four years too in addition to getting into petty arguments with every big media house on both sides of the party line, and I think there are loads who still buy into the idea of him as an anti-politician despite him currently holding the highest office in the country.

I also think it's undeniable that the economical elite has always been glorified in the US, the home of capitalism with a big C. Black hole oligarchs like Bezos who vacuum the global markets clean couldn't exist anywhere but there. Trump himself exists because America idolise people like him.

Klaus wrote:
Mirth wrote:

Does the US have a 'shy Tory' phenomenon? I imagine given how much voting for Trump is seen as a moral failure, it's likely that Trump's chances are understated particularly in swing states

That's what I think too. It's partly why polls were so bad at predicting the last election. More importantly though: I think Trump will be seen as someone who cares about the way the pandemic is hurting working class people and their businesses. While everyone dropped the ball spectacularly on this pandemic perhaps none other did it more so than the American media and the Democrats who, by default, took up every position as long as it was the exact opposite of what Trump advocated. It's going to come back to bite them at some stage, and that time might be now.

Good point. As pathetic as the stimulus cheques Trump gave people were in comparison to other countries Americans will still be happy they got something and wont forget the Dems were against it.

For the past 10 elections, whenever the stock market drops on the day of election the counter part took over. When it rises the incumbent stayed.

It's swinging towards Trump based on this pattern. Apparently 87% accurate using this

Klaus wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:

The political and media elite and economic elite are all the one.

In absolute terms, sure.

Trump came from outside the political sphere in the last election though and it was a big reason for his popularity. He has kept trying to cultivate that perception over the last four years too in addition to getting into petty arguments with every big media across the party lines, and I think there are loads who still buy into the idea of him as an anti-politician despite him currently holding the highest office in the country.

I aso think it's an undeniable truth that the economical elite has always been glorified in the US, the home of capitalism with a big C, which is why black hole oligarchs like Bezos who vacuum the global markets clean currently exist there. Trump himself exist because America idolise people like him.

There isn't any coherence to the ideology of the average Trump voter though (or Dem voter TBH). They hate media like CNN but love Fox, hate Gates but love Trump. Thats the problem when both parties are so ideologically similar. There is no actual populist option so they flail around trying to find reasons to support one or the other and then claiming that their side is really for the American people.

On normalising what's happening in American politics. I live in South Africa, a country with a very violent past. It has a young democracy, 26 years old. I'm from Botswana next door with a another young (60 year old) democracy. The idea that you would go to a polling place in either country and encounter men with guns and trucks intimidating you when you vote is unthinkable at this stage. Or see trucks trying to drive campaign vehicles off the road. These are acts incited by the president.

That's why I think it is important to separate conversations. America is the imperialist power of the day, just as Britain, France, Portugal etc have had their time. This gives them outsized influence which can often be negative globally. But their prior leaders were not like this. That's why this motherfucker's gots to go.

Qwiss! wrote:
Klaus wrote:

That's what I think too. It's partly why polls were so bad at predicting the last election. More importantly though: I think Trump will be seen as someone who cares about the way the pandemic is hurting working class people and their businesses. While everyone dropped the ball spectacularly on this pandemic perhaps none other did it more so than the American media and the Democrats who, by default, took up every position as long as it was the exact opposite of what Trump advocated. It's going to come back to bite them at some stage, and that time might be now.

Good point. As pathetic as the stimulus cheques Trump gave people were in comparison to other countries Americans will still be happy they got something and wont forget the Dems were against it.

Except the Dems passed a second round that the GOP blocked, so that doesn't really track.

Claudius wrote:

On normalising what's happening in American politics. I live in South Africa, a country with a very violent past. It has a young democracy, 26 years old. I'm from Botswana next door with a another young (60 year old) democracy. The idea that you would go to a polling place in either country and encounter men with guns and trucks intimidating you when you vote is unthinkable at this stage. Or see trucks trying to drive campaign vehicles off the road. These are acts incited by the president.

That's why I think it is important to separate conversations. America is the imperialist power of the day, just as Britain, France, Portugal etc have had their time. This gives them outsized influence which can often be negative globally. But their prior leaders were not like this. That's why this motherfucker's gots to go.

Indeed Claudius.

I wonder if it's gone too far already though.
At a time where the world at large is in dire need of people who have the gift and motivation to lead with the best interests of society at heart, from the bottom up, we seem to have nothing but cynics, political hacks, madmen and idiots to chose from.

We’re on pace to have the highest turnout in 100 years.

America will be fine. Trump is done. Folks are talking like it wasn’t a minor miracle of the electoral college that got him in the first time around, and lots of targeted voter suppression of the black community. It won’t happen again. It’s just a matter of how badly he is whupped this time around.

Anyone got a good link to a page that will track the election results as they're reported today?

flobaba wrote:

America will be fine. Trump is done. Folks are talking like it wasn’t a minor miracle of the electoral college that got him in the first time around, and lots of targeted voter suppression of the black community. It won’t happen again. It’s just a matter of how badly he is whupped this time around.

And honestly how much Clinton was disliked. 2016 was a referendum on Clinton and much as 2020 is a referendum on Trump

flobaba wrote:

America will be fine. Trump is done. Folks are talking like it wasn’t a minor miracle of the electoral college that got him in the first time around, and lots of targeted voter suppression of the black community. It won’t happen again. It’s just a matter of how badly he is whupped this time around.

Do think he'll lose Florida flobaba? Even Texas?
That would be so brilliant.

Klaus wrote:

Anyone got a good link to a page that will track the election results as they're reported today?

NY Times are actually the best at the live tracking, unless you want the actual nerdy counts precinct by precinct live, in which there are some twitter wonks.  

538.com is a good bet too, as they'll be getting aggregating the info from the other news site. They have a nifty feature where you can put who wins a particular state and you can see who then has the edge

Florida should have results early on (8 or 9 pm EST - so 2 or 3 am in Europe). If Biden wins, he's pretty much a shoe in. States like North Carolina and Arizona should report early as well, and these also are good early indicators.