Qwiss! wrote:

How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.

It's not really but ffs I thought he'd tone it down a bit now. Also Trump talks so much shit your practically immune, Biden doesn't have that luxury.

goon wrote:

I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

Yeah, age is the main factor for me - even above education since younger people are more like to be University educated.

JazzG wrote:

Good lord....

Sweeping the black vote really put the battery in this guys back.

There’s too much happening in that clip. Biden acting the fool. Charlemagne continues to be the voice of black America. 2020 will start with Covid and end with Trump repeating. Horrible anus.

Mirth wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:

How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.

It's not really but ffs I thought he'd tone it down a bit now. Also Trump talks so much shit your practically immune, Biden doesn't have that luxury.

goon wrote:

I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

Yeah, age is the main factor for me - even above education since younger people are more like to be University educated.

Agreed

Qwiss! wrote:
y va marquer wrote:

Is there really that clear a correlation?
I would say it's more complex than class, which is just one of many determining factors.

Take Cork South Central for example - it is as middle class (upper in many areas) as you're going to get and the SF candidate obliterated the opposition in the last election.
I was at the count centre, saw the ballots from the most exclusive of areas and he was getting twice the votes of the nearest contender, Coveney.

Rural urban differences influence how people vote, age is a big factor, as are beliefs around the competence of parties and individuals to deliver.

Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.

Since the fall of FF after the financial crisis there is a cohort of traditional FF or FF leaning voters who float in some kind of protest vote stream.

Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.

Once FF ditch Martin and the old guard they will muscle in on the phony, superficial lefty SF territory. 
The cohort that ditched them aren't right wingers, those who stayed loyal to them are.

JazzG wrote:

Good lord....

Seemed like a joke to me. 

y va marquer wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:

Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.

Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.

Once FF ditch Martin and the old guard they will muscle in on the phony, superficial lefty SF territory. 
The cohort that ditched them aren't right wingers, those who stayed loyal to them are.

There is plenty of people who are moving from FF to FG. If you are moving from a right wing party to an even more right wing party I think that makes you a right winger.

I think you'd find that the majority of people who ditched FF ended up voting independent or SF.
Most of the FFers that I know would cut their own hand off rather than x a box next to a FG name.
I don't think that would be seen as anomalous either, despite the confidence and supply arrangement and potential coalition they still despise each other.
I'm hearing rumours that some in the ranks want to go to the polls again

According to the Irish Times podcast FG are pretty keen for another election. I think they'd be mad. Their bump is all covid based and forcing people to polls will be frowned upon by exactly the people they've won over.

9 days later

Curious if George Floyd's murder will discredit Klobuchar enough so she can't be picked as VP. Still think she's a terrible choice as Biden needs to lean on Warren for her tenacity, (moderate) appeal to progressives, and because she could legitimately take on lots of the workload.

13 days later

Biden's next VP candidate?

Excitable American media has now thrown Keisha Lance Bottoms into the mix because she’s frequently been on TV in the past two weeks. It seems like Harris, Demings and Bottoms are top candidates.

arsedoc md wrote:


Yass queen

She's a big time bernie bro, bless her. The idealogical differences between obama and bernie has always kind of simmered below the surface of the democratic party. Criticism of obama is deemed as political harikari if you want to win the democratic nomination, which i think has been an unspoken factor in why bernie could never get over the hump

Which makes no sense.
Obama is a great man but made obvious errors. Yesterday’s Supreme Court judgment with Kavanugh opposing was a reminder of his miscalculation with Mitch and over-confidence in Hillary regarding judges. Warfare is another troubling area where he could’ve pulled back. And then working with the party to build state level capacity as well would’ve been a massive help. So there at least 3 easy points of criticism which shouldn’t get anybody’s knickers in a knot

Obama's contributions to THE LAST DANCE were pretty characteristic, referring to Jordan as "not just a great ambassador for basketball … a great ambassador for humanity" and so on.

Lol. Well he’s just whipped out $100m for black causes. We should put him on the VP shortlist.

Obama's charismatic as fuck tho - that alone is 80% of the battle. It's only us nerds that talk about policy.

20 days later

So the US now have the choice between Trump, Biden and Kanye fucking West. 😆

If he actually registers for 2020, it throws quite a curveball into what appears to be trending towards a biden win (going by current polling). I doubt he goes ahead, he's most likely yapping on twitter because he has some new merch to sell

Kanye is just very disrespectful. He dropped a new single last week. It was actually his first decent thing in a decade. And he signed a ten year deal with the Gap. Does this presidential announcement sound serious or like desperate promotion from a man about to drop an album called God’s Country?
He needs to sit down.

He's a fucking clown. So basically a perfect US president.

14 days later

I just saw his rally talking about Harriet Tubman never freeing any slaves. Then a couple of minutes later he suffers a breakdown and starts crying screaming and sobbing on stage.

Hes clearly in the middle of a manic episode. Apparently he's been diagnosed with bipolar disorder years ago and refuses to take any medication. The fucking clowns are his wife and his entourage who go along with his horseshit ideas instead of seeing to him getting help.

jones wrote:

I just saw his rally talking about Harriet Tubman never freeing any slaves. Then a couple of minutes later he suffers a breakdown and starts crying screaming and sobbing on stage.

Hes clearly in the middle of a manic episode. Apparently he's been diagnosed with bipolar disorder years ago and refuses to take any medication. The fucking clowns are his wife and his entourage who go along with his horseshit ideas instead of seeing to him getting help.

I've been thinking about that. I think Jay-Z lost contact with him a while ago over his behaviour. I suspect his personal issues are difficult and he pushes away the people who would most be able to help him and advise him. It's painful to watch it play out. It's also annoying that the media chose to cover him when he made the announcement given his history. They had no obligation to and shouldn't aid this car crash 

I'm under the impression based on what I've read that it's very difficult for him to actually run now, procedurally?

The Tubman comments seemed to be about citing the continuation of slavery under other names after abolition throughout the US—a common theme of Black politics, and in the larger scheme of things, a valid point—delivered in a particularly hamfisted and counterfactual way.

Burnwinter wrote:

I'm under the impression based on what I've read that it's very difficult for him to actually run now, procedurally?

The Tubman comments seemed to be about citing the continuation of slavery under other names after abolition throughout the US—a common theme of Black politics, and in the larger scheme of things, a valid point—delivered in a particularly hamfisted and counterfactual way.

I'd be buying that if he didn't have form for this shit. He said slavery was a choice just a year or two ago

Burnwinter is correct about what Kanye was trying to say. Because he did correct himself later in that cluster of a speech.
But as you say, Jones, he gave us slavery was a choice. Beyond the the issues with not caring for his health conditions, the biggest problem with Kanye is likes to believe that he is intellectual, but he doesn't read is very shallow. It's the worst form of ignorance.

I'd say he is an intellectual, but that doesn't make him a coherent political communicator. His public speech is like forum posts. Unfortunately you need discipline and clear delineated arguments and images repeated, true or false, to deliver an idea when campaigning. I don't think he's capable of that, which makes him less capable even than Trump in this arena.

Have a feeling he'll end up killing himself someday

Tweet doesn't work

He just tweeted "everybody knows the movie Get Out is about me"

Never liked the guy since his days at Rocafella but damn he's really disintegrating right now. Who knows if this is him refusing help from his people or something else but he should be committed for his own good

9 days later

Everyone knew this kind of stunt was coming. His numbers have cratered, and he's desperate

Yep it's a desperate ploy to energise his base by giving them something polarising to shout about that isn't COVID-19. The Trump campaign is going to feature a hail Mary pass like this every day in a couple of months if the polls keep showing Biden ten points ahead.

And Biden just stays hidden away in his basement for the next few months, it's like the lunatic clown versus the shadowy ghost.

Gazza M wrote:

Everyone knew this kind of stunt was coming. His numbers have cratered, and he's desperate

The problem with America is that American journalists keep trying to predict this guys moves looking at previous presidents. This guy is a despot. We see Donald all over the developing world. As you say, Gazza, completely predictable. Many people outside America called this. He's still going to do some completely wild shit on their social platforms. And once he wins re-election, political opponents and media beware. Who's going to stop him?

Gazza M wrote:

Everyone knew this kind of stunt was coming. His numbers have cratered, and he's desperate

He’s still gonna win despite current polling imo. 

At the moment the virus is taking the spotlight off Biden, once it’s on him people are going to raise this guy isn’t the same Biden they all saw under Obama. 

It doesn’t matter. This election isn’t about Biden.