Circus circa 2020
Pick makes no sense. If a white moderate from Scranton can’t carry the Midwest states, what was the point of picking him?
Just fulfilling all righteousness.
His pick has to be Warren.
They want to lose.
Or to put it slightly differently, there's no one running the Democrats to whom the possibility of losing would be a disaster.
Wasn't she very popular with Republicans when they were grilling that Supreme Court Judge?
Burnwinter wrote:They want to lose.
Or to put it slightly differently, there's no one running the Democrats to whom the possibility of losing would be a disaster.
It's a strategy issue. A classic case of how do you proactively disrupt the core before it collapses on itself. How do you as Microsoft successfully build out cloud and services before desktop and on-premise die. I do wonder if, just as coronavirus will accelerate events in the tech space, will it have the same effect on politics? If people look at 30% unemployment rates, difficulties in affordably accessing healthcare in a crisis, and the challenges of paying for education during recession, will more people buy into left-leaning principles faster? And how well is the Democratic Party tracking this?
It accelerates nothing. The more the Democrats try, the more stuck in “Republicans” seem to get. You underestimate how stubborn these people are.
Folks who actively refuse to put on masks to reduce the rate of transmission of a virus...
*I assume that not every Republican is or is being unreasonable, just the staunch Trumpites and their kin.
The idea that political ideology or even political values has a direct correlation to economic conditions is also flawed. Being poor doesn't necessarily push you to the left or the right, and the unemployment rate seems even further removed.
Burnwinter wrote:They want to lose.
Or to put it slightly differently, there's no one running the Democrats to whom the possibility of losing would be a disaster.
I hadn't thought of it this way but it makes some sense.
Another way to look at it is that to the Republicans, losing threatens an existential crisis: Christianity, white cultural dominance and guns could be lost forever. The psychological threat of loss is more powerful than the prospect of gain and shapes how humans make decisions on a daily basis.
Coombs wrote:The idea that political ideology or even political values has a direct correlation to economic conditions is also flawed. Being poor doesn't necessarily push you to the left or the right, and the unemployment rate seems even further removed.
I wonder how that varies from country to country. Here there is a clear correlation between class and how people vote.
In the US it's far more regional, and what I think you can glean from that is that it is also influenced very deeply by other cultural factors. Also, when metropolitan areas vote overwhelming democratic, I don't think that actually means they are voting to the left. We saw that pretty clearly in the primary. In terms of the upcoming election, I don't know that Trump and Biden really exist on the left/right spectrum as clearly as all that.
Historically, parties in the US haven't actually be organized on a left/right spectrum at all. I'd argue that any claim to left or right ideologies is mostly PR. There have always been very dramatically different wings of different parties, to the extent that you'd wonder how they could be in the same party. Party make-up has been regional and cultural first and foremost.
Good lord....
Qwiss! wrote:Coombs wrote:The idea that political ideology or even political values has a direct correlation to economic conditions is also flawed. Being poor doesn't necessarily push you to the left or the right, and the unemployment rate seems even further removed.
I wonder how that varies from country to country. Here there is a clear correlation between class and how people vote.
Is there really that clear a correlation?
I would say it's more complex than class, which is just one of many determining factors.
Take Cork South Central for example - it is as middle class (upper in many areas) as you're going to get and the SF candidate obliterated the opposition in the last election.
I was at the count centre, saw the ballots from the most exclusive of areas and he was getting twice the votes of the nearest contender, Coveney.
Rural urban differences influence how people vote, age is a big factor, as are beliefs around the competence of parties and individuals to deliver.
Since the fall of FF after the financial crisis there is a cohort of traditional FF or FF leaning voters who float in some kind of protest vote stream.
JazzG wrote:Good lord....
Biden is such an arrogant dud.
The entitlement is shocking.
I can’t watch it. Might get me so riled up I vote for Trump.
How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.
y va marquer wrote:Qwiss! wrote:I wonder how that varies from country to country. Here there is a clear correlation between class and how people vote.
Is there really that clear a correlation?
I would say it's more complex than class, which is just one of many determining factors.Take Cork South Central for example - it is as middle class (upper in many areas) as you're going to get and the SF candidate obliterated the opposition in the last election.
I was at the count centre, saw the ballots from the most exclusive of areas and he was getting twice the votes of the nearest contender, Coveney.Rural urban differences influence how people vote, age is a big factor, as are beliefs around the competence of parties and individuals to deliver.
Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.
Since the fall of FF after the financial crisis there is a cohort of traditional FF or FF leaning voters who float in some kind of protest vote stream.
Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.
I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:
Qwiss! wrote:How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.
It's not really but ffs I thought he'd tone it down a bit now. Also Trump talks so much shit your practically immune, Biden doesn't have that luxury.
goon wrote:I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:
Yeah, age is the main factor for me - even above education since younger people are more like to be University educated.
JazzG wrote:Good lord....
Sweeping the black vote really put the battery in this guys back.
There’s too much happening in that clip. Biden acting the fool. Charlemagne continues to be the voice of black America. 2020 will start with Covid and end with Trump repeating. Horrible anus.
Mirth wrote:Qwiss! wrote:How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.
It's not really but ffs I thought he'd tone it down a bit now. Also Trump talks so much shit your practically immune, Biden doesn't have that luxury.
goon wrote:I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:
Yeah, age is the main factor for me - even above education since younger people are more like to be University educated.
Agreed
Qwiss! wrote:y va marquer wrote:Is there really that clear a correlation?
I would say it's more complex than class, which is just one of many determining factors.Take Cork South Central for example - it is as middle class (upper in many areas) as you're going to get and the SF candidate obliterated the opposition in the last election.
I was at the count centre, saw the ballots from the most exclusive of areas and he was getting twice the votes of the nearest contender, Coveney.Rural urban differences influence how people vote, age is a big factor, as are beliefs around the competence of parties and individuals to deliver.
Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.
Since the fall of FF after the financial crisis there is a cohort of traditional FF or FF leaning voters who float in some kind of protest vote stream.
Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.
Once FF ditch Martin and the old guard they will muscle in on the phony, superficial lefty SF territory.
The cohort that ditched them aren't right wingers, those who stayed loyal to them are.
JazzG wrote:Good lord....
Seemed like a joke to me.
y va marquer wrote:Qwiss! wrote:Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.
Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.
Once FF ditch Martin and the old guard they will muscle in on the phony, superficial lefty SF territory.
The cohort that ditched them aren't right wingers, those who stayed loyal to them are.
There is plenty of people who are moving from FF to FG. If you are moving from a right wing party to an even more right wing party I think that makes you a right winger.
I think you'd find that the majority of people who ditched FF ended up voting independent or SF.
Most of the FFers that I know would cut their own hand off rather than x a box next to a FG name.
I don't think that would be seen as anomalous either, despite the confidence and supply arrangement and potential coalition they still despise each other.
I'm hearing rumours that some in the ranks want to go to the polls again
According to the Irish Times podcast FG are pretty keen for another election. I think they'd be mad. Their bump is all covid based and forcing people to polls will be frowned upon by exactly the people they've won over.
Curious if George Floyd's murder will discredit Klobuchar enough so she can't be picked as VP. Still think she's a terrible choice as Biden needs to lean on Warren for her tenacity, (moderate) appeal to progressives, and because she could legitimately take on lots of the workload.
Yass queen
Biden's next VP candidate?
Excitable American media has now thrown Keisha Lance Bottoms into the mix because she’s frequently been on TV in the past two weeks. It seems like Harris, Demings and Bottoms are top candidates.
arsedoc md wrote:
Yass queen
She's a big time bernie bro, bless her. The idealogical differences between obama and bernie has always kind of simmered below the surface of the democratic party. Criticism of obama is deemed as political harikari if you want to win the democratic nomination, which i think has been an unspoken factor in why bernie could never get over the hump
Which makes no sense.
Obama is a great man but made obvious errors. Yesterday’s Supreme Court judgment with Kavanugh opposing was a reminder of his miscalculation with Mitch and over-confidence in Hillary regarding judges. Warfare is another troubling area where he could’ve pulled back. And then working with the party to build state level capacity as well would’ve been a massive help. So there at least 3 easy points of criticism which shouldn’t get anybody’s knickers in a knot
Obama's contributions to THE LAST DANCE were pretty characteristic, referring to Jordan as "not just a great ambassador for basketball … a great ambassador for humanity" and so on.
Lol. Well he’s just whipped out $100m for black causes. We should put him on the VP shortlist.
Obama's charismatic as fuck tho - that alone is 80% of the battle. It's only us nerds that talk about policy.
So the US now have the choice between Trump, Biden and Kanye fucking West. 
If he actually registers for 2020, it throws quite a curveball into what appears to be trending towards a biden win (going by current polling). I doubt he goes ahead, he's most likely yapping on twitter because he has some new merch to sell