Circus circa 2020: Page 46 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

Circus circa 2020

Mirth

Qwiss! wrote:
How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.

It's not really but ffs I thought he'd tone it down a bit now. Also Trump talks so much shit your practically immune, Biden doesn't have that luxury.

goon wrote:
I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

Yeah, age is the main factor for me - even above education since younger people are more like to be University educated.

Gazza M

JazzG wrote:

Good lord....

Sweeping the black vote really put the battery in this guys back.

Claudius

There’s too much happening in that clip. Biden acting the fool. Charlemagne continues to be the voice of black America. 2020 will start with Covid and end with Trump repeating. Horrible anus.

y va marquer

Mirth wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:
How is this surprising he was doing this all through the primary.

It's not really but ffs I thought he'd tone it down a bit now. Also Trump talks so much shit your practically immune, Biden doesn't have that luxury.

goon wrote:
I don't think 'class' is as bigger factor as it used to be, the lines have blurred over conflicting issues. The biggest factors these days, certainly in the UK but also in the states, seems to be age and the level of education you receive:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

Yeah, age is the main factor for me - even above education since younger people are more like to be University educated.

Agreed

y va marquer

Qwiss! wrote:
y va marquer wrote:
Is there really that clear a correlation?
I would say it's more complex than class, which is just one of many determining factors.

Take Cork South Central for example - it is as middle class (upper in many areas) as you're going to get and the SF candidate obliterated the opposition in the last election.
I was at the count centre, saw the ballots from the most exclusive of areas and he was getting twice the votes of the nearest contender, Coveney.

Rural urban differences influence how people vote, age is a big factor, as are beliefs around the competence of parties and individuals to deliver.

Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.

Since the fall of FF after the financial crisis there is a cohort of traditional FF or FF leaning voters who float in some kind of protest vote stream.

Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.

Once FF ditch Martin and the old guard they will muscle in on the phony, superficial lefty SF territory.
The cohort that ditched them aren't right wingers, those who stayed loyal to them are.

Kel Varnsen

JazzG wrote:

Good lord....

Seemed like a joke to me.

Qwiss

y va marquer wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:
Its a fact that FG has more middle class voters than parties on the left like PBP or even SF. Obviously some working class people vote for FG and some middle class people vote for PBP but generally the demographics of who votes for who tends to come down solidly on class lines. Its not a coincidence that PBP/Sol etc get their seats in some of the poorest parts Dublin.

Did you see this weeks Red C poll? FF down and both SF and FG up. FF is a split party, I think they've lost the war with FG for who gets to be the party of the right in Ireland. Its FG vs SF for the next decade or so I think.

Once FF ditch Martin and the old guard they will muscle in on the phony, superficial lefty SF territory.
The cohort that ditched them aren't right wingers, those who stayed loyal to them are.

There is plenty of people who are moving from FF to FG. If you are moving from a right wing party to an even more right wing party I think that makes you a right winger.

y va marquer

I think you'd find that the majority of people who ditched FF ended up voting independent or SF.
Most of the FFers that I know would cut their own hand off rather than x a box next to a FG name.
I don't think that would be seen as anomalous either, despite the confidence and supply arrangement and potential coalition they still despise each other.
I'm hearing rumours that some in the ranks want to go to the polls again

Qwiss

According to the Irish Times podcast FG are pretty keen for another election. I think they'd be mad. Their bump is all covid based and forcing people to polls will be frowned upon by exactly the people they've won over.

MistaT

Curious if George Floyd's murder will discredit Klobuchar enough so she can't be picked as VP. Still think she's a terrible choice as Biden needs to lean on Warren for her tenacity, (moderate) appeal to progressives, and because she could legitimately take on lots of the workload.

arsedocmd

Yass queen

Coombs

Biden's next VP candidate?

Claudius

Excitable American media has now thrown Keisha Lance Bottoms into the mix because she’s frequently been on TV in the past two weeks. It seems like Harris, Demings and Bottoms are top candidates.

Gazza M

arsedoc md wrote:

Yass queen

She's a big time bernie bro, bless her. The idealogical differences between obama and bernie has always kind of simmered below the surface of the democratic party. Criticism of obama is deemed as political harikari if you want to win the democratic nomination, which i think has been an unspoken factor in why bernie could never get over the hump

Claudius

Which makes no sense.
Obama is a great man but made obvious errors. Yesterday’s Supreme Court judgment with Kavanugh opposing was a reminder of his miscalculation with Mitch and over-confidence in Hillary regarding judges. Warfare is another troubling area where he could’ve pulled back. And then working with the party to build state level capacity as well would’ve been a massive help. So there at least 3 easy points of criticism which shouldn’t get anybody’s knickers in a knot

Burnwinter

Obama's contributions to THE LAST DANCE were pretty characteristic, referring to Jordan as "not just a great ambassador for basketball … a great ambassador for humanity" and so on.

Claudius

Lol. Well he’s just whipped out $100m for black causes. We should put him on the VP shortlist.

Mirth

Obama's charismatic as fuck tho - that alone is 80% of the battle. It's only us nerds that talk about policy.

jones

So the US now have the choice between Trump, Biden and Kanye fucking West. 😆

Gazza M

If he actually registers for 2020, it throws quite a curveball into what appears to be trending towards a biden win (going by current polling). I doubt he goes ahead, he's most likely yapping on twitter because he has some new merch to sell

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