goon wrote:
Faulty logic imo. How does the visit actually help Taiwan? If anything I’d imagine it gives China an excuse to flex its power and speed up its ambitions to take it by force at some point. Empty gestures like this have never achieved anything historically and usually just serve the relevant political leaders in their grandstanding. The only thing that works is categorical military backing and that’s not something the US is willing to do.
There's 3 possible outcomes
1) China does nothing (unlikely) - and the US and every other country in the region gain from that
2) China invades - highly unlikely and we all lose.
3) China raise tensions and Taiwan will have to recognise that an invasion at some point is a possibility (Most likely). That's probably a win for the US, since it's been trying for ages to get Taiwan to take the prospect of an invasion seriously - meaning invest in asymmetric capabilities rather than useless warships. As you say, the US won't write a blank check to guarantee Taiwan's security because China won't be pleased but the US needs Taiwan to be an unappealing target for China.
For the record, visits like this do have an impact - you just have to look next door at China itself to see the impact Nixon's visit had during the Cold War. Nothing gets resolved during the visit but it normalises events and can sometimes be a turning point - it'll only be apparent when you look back in history.
