Agree on the premise but ultimately it’ll be China and potentially India that dictate the flow away from dollar hegemony. Plenty of countries have wanted it for decades but few can bear the cost themselves.

At the moment it’s still elusive enough for plenty of elites in both India and China to turn West as a hedge against their own internal politics. I don’t think Russia is relevant as an economy to lead the charge, certainly not in the near term, and to do something would effectively require themselves to submit themselves to the Sino sphere of influence and accept they have no standing for themselves.

AbbVie has stopped the export of Botox to Russia. The war should end soon now.

Mirth wrote:

Agree on the premise but ultimately it’ll be China and potentially India that dictate the flow away from dollar hegemony. Plenty of countries have wanted it for decades but few can bear the cost themselves.

At the moment it’s still elusive enough for plenty of elites in both India and China to turn West as a hedge against their own internal politics. I don’t think Russia is relevant as an economy to lead the charge, certainly not in the near term, and to do something would effectively require themselves to submit themselves to the Sino sphere of influence and accept they have no standing for themselves.

Yeah it's definitely still up to them to actually break away. If we're talking about just nudging countries and giving them reasons to try and emancipate themselves the US has given them more than enough, forget about freezing foreign assets the US have invaded and rubbished entire countries with little to no reason other than to enrich the MIC.

I think Hudson talks about Russia mostly in terms of economic potential. They're definitely not going to lead in the near future in anything but they still play a relevant role in military terms, in the CIS, EEU, BRI etc and obviously its massive natural resources and potential for development there. They have at least partially acceded that China will be the senior partner in their relationship, the difference in economic power is too massive for them not to do it.

People still seem to talk in the west about alignment with China as if it's this bizarre idea.

No apologies or plaudits for the Chinese state, but in 2022 it worries me that Australians are still encouraged to perceive China as a sort of corrupt weakling giant to be vilified and sneered at relative to the United States.

The idea that another nation such as Russia might, now or in future, take the pride or strength in its relationship with Chinese power that an Australian takes in this country's "#1 fan" status within United States hegemony cannot be parsed here.

Alignment with China - or any other country - as the junior partner is a new place for the Russian state to be in. For the past two centuries, no matter the cost, Russia has had a strong sphere of influence that was independent of any of the other major powers. Alignment with anyone changes that position and I don’t believe it’s a choice that would be popular within the Kremlin.

Completely sensible for anyone else to align with China but realistically Australia, Western Europe, India and Japan will never do so willingly even in a world without the United States

Why would you align with a genocidal state? But then again Turkey is in NATO so what do I know.

The point is China or any other country wouldn't be replacing the American role as the global pervasive hegemon ie in economic, military, political legal and cultural terms but in parts of it (mostly economic tbf), that much is clear by looking at the countries' respective histories alone at least for the West.

Even in subservient Germany there are commercial interests that won't ride America's horse forever with their eyes open watching American unilateral action damaging their accounts. The US are still making sure the tipping point won't be reached in the short term with their think tanks and lobby associations dominating all critical nexus in media and educational programmes but at some point something will have to give, especially given the more brazen nature of their moves in general and especially towards their allies in the post-Obama years. Stuff like this always seems like an impossibility until it actually happens, the situation in Ukraine is a perfect example for that.

Australia has a serious problem there … one doubts being too favourable to China would be beneficial not that we've ever given it a shot, but the current scenario where our Cabinet routinely fear-mongers about and shit-talks the country that's also our largest trade partner is preposterous.

Gurgen wrote:

Why would you align with a genocidal state? But then again Turkey is in NATO so what do I know.

Why stop at Turkey? Half of NATO members have dabbled in genocide or committed other atrocities, even as an organisation they've committed aggression and war crimes on three continents all in living memory.

Burnwinter wrote:

Australia has a serious problem there … one doubts being too favourable to China would be beneficial not that we've ever given it a shot, but the current scenario where our Cabinet routinely fear-mongers about and shit-talks the country that's also our largest trade partner is preposterous.

Germany is in the exact same situation. Basically whoever was foreign secretary in the last 30 years was tasked with handwringingly chastising China for its human rights violations in front of the media and at the same time behind the scenes assuring to China nothing ever will come off it to make sure business keeps flowing.

Australia's certainly a genocidal state, both historically and in its potential.

jones wrote:

The point is China or any other country wouldn't be replacing the American role as the global pervasive hegemon ie in economic, military, political legal and cultural terms but in parts of it (mostly economic tbf), that much is clear by looking at the countries' respective histories alone at least for the West.

Even in subservient Germany there are commercial interests that won't ride America's horse forever with their eyes open watching American unilateral action damaging their accounts. The US are still making sure the tipping point won't be reached in the short term with their think tanks and lobby associations dominating all critical nexus in media and educational programmes but at some point something will have to give, especially given the more brazen nature of their moves in general and especially towards their allies in the post-Obama years. Stuff like this always seems like an impossibility until it actually happens, the situation in Ukraine is a perfect example for that.

For sure, American uni polarity that we’ve seen since the 90s is an aberration. We’re slowly going back to a more familiar setting within international relations but there’s no way for the American state to accept that as anything other than as proof of decline and they’ll be compelled to fight it.

However, other states have agency too in accelerating that trend and they’ll need to make tough decisions to put themselves in that position. None of this will be done with a shred of morality so I take it as read that most of the major world powers and quite a few smaller powers are not very nice. Ultimately the records will show that it’ll be decided by pure self interest so then the question is whether that inflection point has been reached yet and personally I don’t think it has.

Predicting the end of the US Empire is easy - it’s happened almost every other decade. And it’ll definitely end because the seeds have been planted. For instance, countering the dollar has been on the agenda for decades. Never mind Russia, even the EU had lofty goals of surpassing USD as the global reserve currency but ultimately they lacked the ability or the willingness to make tough decisions to make that happen despite at one point being a larger and wealthier economy than the US.

jones wrote:
Gurgen wrote:

Why would you align with a genocidal state? But then again Turkey is in NATO so what do I know.

Why stop at Turkey? Half of NATO members have dabbled in genocide or committed other atrocities, even as an organisation they've committed aggression and war crimes on three continents all in living memory.

Sure but there are varying degrees. Germany is the last Western European state that has intentionally sought to exterminate a large part of its own population and it doesn't deny that. Turkey denies it while China is doing it right now. That is how I would define a genocidal state.

Don't think the question whether it happens within your own borders or not factors in when defining a genocide, e.g. more non-German Jews were murdered during the Holocaust than German Jews.

On a related note, look who's piping up

Yeah, Tone wrote a fully unhinged editorial on his "Tony Blair Institute" (or whatever it's called) blog the other day.

An unhinged and bloodthirsty individual, his response to cheerleading war against public protest has been to double and triple down … if only artefacts like the final report of the Chilcot Inquiry were capable of burying his type.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-russia-ukraine-biden-team-nicolas-maduro/

I somehow missed this in the last weeks. Years of trying to bring Venezuela to its knees, propping up their puppet in Guaido and sanctions which directly killed tens if not hundreds of thousands through hunger and illness, all swept away with one move of the hand because they need another source of oil. I'd laugh at how obvious it all is if it wasn't so infuriating.

jones wrote:
Mirth wrote:

That's the nature of diplomacy - 20 years isn't even that long. You keep going. The same Russia has been arguing with Japan over the Kuril Islands for more than half a century but they haven't started carpeting bombing Tokyo.

Kishida just stepped it up a notch calling the Islands an "integral part to Japan", a formulation which his predecessor Abe has avoided for years. Seems like a great idea to turn the heat up on this topic right now.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3171349/ukraine-war-japan-slams-russia-move-end-disputed-kuril-islands

Japan has imposed sanctions on 76 individuals, seven banks and 12 other bodies in Russia, most recently on Friday, and included defence officials and the state-owned arms exporter, Rosoboronexport.

“Under the current conditions Russia does not intend to continue negotiations with Japan on a peace treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday, citing Japan’s “openly unfriendly positions and attempts to damage the interests of our country”.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he strongly opposed Russia’s decision, terming it “unfair” and “completely unacceptable”.

jones wrote:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-russia-ukraine-biden-team-nicolas-maduro/

I somehow missed this in the last weeks. Years of trying to bring Venezuela to its knees, propping up their puppet in Guaido and sanctions which directly killed tens if not hundreds of thousands through hunger and illness, all swept away with one move of the hand because they need another source of oil. I'd laugh at how obvious it all is if it wasn't so infuriating.

And Maduro still goes on TV and gives a speech about Biden and American media using the term "oligarch" as propaganda.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60871601

The US and the EU have announced a major deal on liquified natural gas, in an attempt to reduce Europe's reliance on Russian energy.

The agreement will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic metres of the fuel - known as LNG - by the end of the year.

The longer-term aim is to ensure, until at least 2030, about 50 billion cubic metres per year of US gas, up from last year's 22 billion cubic metres.

Never rated climate policy anyway

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-bombers-could-devastate-ukraine-but-he-s-holding-back-here-s-why/ar-AAVnuAJ?ocid=EMMX

"I'm frustrated by the current narrative—that Russia is intentionally targeting civilians, that it is demolishing cities, and that Putin doesn't care. Such a distorted view stands in the way of finding an end before true disaster hits or the war spreads to the rest of Europe," the second U.S. Air Force officer says.

Heartbreaking images make it easy for the news to focus on the war's damage to buildings and lives. But in proportion to the intensity of the fighting (or Russia's capacity), things could indeed be much worse.

"I know that the news keeps repeating that Putin is targeting civilians, but there is no evidence that Russia is intentionally doing so," says the DIA analyst. "In fact, I'd say that Russian could be killing thousands more civilians if it wanted to."

"I'm no com-symp," the analyst says. "Russia is dead wrong, and Putin needs to be punished. But in terms of concluding the war in a way that both sides can accept and where we don't see Armageddon, the air and missile war provides positive signs."

Burnwinter wrote:

"Com-symp" ... what?

Communist sympathiser. 'Tis a figure of speech referring metaphorically to an unlikely to the point of being impossible scenario in the US, handed down to us from a historical period in which communist identity was even less common or widely understood than it is today.

😆 Touché

I'm aware of what it means, but who in their right mind considers Russia communist?

Americans obviously. Old habits die hard I guess, but on a more practical level it's sensible to keep up the farce of Russia still being communist. Makes it easier to dehumanise the enemy and more importantly to discern good Western billionaire entrepreneurs from evil ex-Soviet oligarchs when you couldn't tell them apart otherwise.

Also probably more appropriate to put this in the Uplifting News thread but Madeleine Albright is dead

9 days later

Horrible stories and images coming from Bucha at the moment.

Yes, the aerial photographs of mass graves coming out were so, so grim. Fuck war and fuck empires.

This op-ed from Russian state-controlled media is quite incredible too, really leaves you cold to the bone with its genocidal language:

I think what's most striking is that basically everyone in Russia knew that this was in the cards for Putin's regime, and Europe didn't listen. I've got friends in Moscow - one of them's Moldovian - who have warned about this scenario since long before the annexation of Crimea. It really makes you despair when you consider that the EU energy politics that were supposed to make Europe less reliant on Russian energy post-2015 have achieved the exact opposite, and now we're here.

The polarization of politics that this inevitably results in is so dangerous too. I loathe NATO and their values, but Finland is about to join now, and I reckon it will leave the Swedish government with little choice too. And who can honestly blame them, with an election coming up this fall and a right-wing block that is trying to sieze the opportunity by using a NATO application as an election promise?

The "Fortress Europe" mentality all this deepens is a problem, from militarisation to surveillance to hard borders.

I get the impression (have not tried to verify) that various publics are pleased NATO is pushing back hard for a 2% budget requirement for member states. To me the current conflict shows highly armed empires stage struggles with greater speculative threats and brutality.

I'm not a regular reader of Roar magazine, but this was an informative write-up on the ongoing rollout of EU border infrastructure in Greece, which hasn't drawn as much attention in the past couple of years.

https://roarmag.org/essays/greece-europe-border-regime/

The 2% aim was pushed in media, political talkshows etc for close to a decade here. Absolutely pathetic how at the drop of a hat the German government - again by an SPD chancellor , the German siter party of Labour - decided to not only close to double the current 1.2% GDP for military expenses but also to add a €100bn fund for it and to also enshrine it in the constitution to make sure that money isn't used for anything else.

Russia's actions almost feel like an afterthought seeing what the reactions are in the West, even disregarding the fact that Ukraine's civil war "in the heart of Europe" (literally a description for Ukraine in German newspapers these days) was waging for eight years before. Regardless of what happened they would've found a pretext to implement their plans, be it 'energy security' or defence spending.

Reminds me of your post years ago in the aftermath of the Paris attacks I think (might've been about 9/11 thinking about it), whatever the truth about the root cause is doesn't matter, what's relevant is how that 'truth' is used later on.

As for Greece - the 'stream' of migrants from SE Europe has mostly dried up in Germany long before Ukrainian refugees started arriving everywhere. I keep in touch with the refugee organisation I used to work with and the accounts I'm hearing from the people who've been to Greek camps are gut churning, gotten worse since the days of the second half of Tsipras' tenure and worse still since the return of Nea Dimokratia.

While I'd love nothing more than to blame the abject misanthrope Mitsotakis and his people for their bartering of the people arriving in Greece with Turkey the real reason for the situation deteriorating like this is of course sitting in Brussels with tacit support from Berlin.

It's only going to get worse in the next years and decades for what it's worth. Armed conflicts will always exist but climate refugees will become even more numerous than they are today, famines of course directly feed into civil or outright wars already but people leaving their homes and fields because of extreme weather will be the standard not far from today. My family's farm back home has lost two consecutive crops now, this past year due to extreme drought and the year before because of a flashflood and hailstorms which brought down all tree fruit and killed a good part of the chickens. If it weren't for the rest of the family pitching in God knows how they would've survived; imagine the anger you feel when you read people like Mitsotakis talking about Ukrainians being "actual refugees" unlike the dark skinned folk washing up their shores.

jones wrote:

Reminds me of your post years ago in the aftermath of the Paris attacks I think (might've been about 9/11 thinking about it), whatever the truth about the root cause is doesn't matter, what's relevant is how that 'truth' is used later on.

Right, we are always "establishing the facts" in our debates while taking for granted what their implications should be (more war, more empires, more lives ended, trampled and displaced apparently).

Jones, I think it's at once impressive and predictable that the same liberals who waved through the militarisation of Frontex and the "legitimate concerns" of the "migrant crisis" express horror when a Ukrainian citizen of African origin is turned away at the Polish border.

One of the deep corollaries of a moralising politics of privilege is that you always have to perform the anxious rediscovery of things you already knew but didn't act upon.

https://thecradle.co/Article/analysis/8673

This is a somewhat biased article (although the fact it's biased is part of the point) about the current goings on in Pakistan, reads like a ridiculous political thriller at times. From the sounds of it it might have huge ramifications in Asia and even worldwide.

What kind of ramifications are you envisaging?

The opposition have been bribed to produce this kind of situation. Its felt obvious the US is instigating a regime change through such underhand tactics too because Pakistan won't let them set up military bases or broadly engage in a callous, asymmetrical and extractive relationship with plenty of ugly episodes since the Powell/Bush era. Not sure if the letter is just a prop but US was flipping their shit when Khan paid visit to Russia last month. So while dissolving the national assembly isn't the most democratic of maneuvers (but still an executive option), the popular vote may see through that bad faith actors don't assume control. The major ramifications I see are mostly domestic. You have certain BJP members emboldened by what they're seeing in Europe and similarly licking their lips at charting a roadmap to annexing what they feel is theirs.

It's not just Somalia too, South Sudan Ethiopia the DR Congo and as you probably know parts of Nigeria suffer from massive crop failures and collapsed supply channels, then you add Yemen and Afghanistan where the famines are entirely results of political decisions (not saying that the formers aren't also partially). All places named not only among the most exposed to climate change but the poorest in the world, but that doesn't even deserve mentioning.

I struggle with myself for doing it because Ukrainian people are obviously not at fault and deserve the same sympathy, but the disgustingly brazen contempt and ignorance the brown and black undesirables are treated with in contrast with the overwhelming support makes my blood boil. Be it that even here in Germany (with very little ties to the country) you can barely go anywhere without seeing the Ukrainian colours everywhere, or how the government decided to massively harm the country's economy and people's wellbeing in order to ruin Russia's economy. Recently even mentioning crises elsewhere in the world gets you the label of whataboutism, being a "Putin-understander" and similar nonsense.

It's not like the maiming and loss of human life around the world and the West's indifference to it is something new, and not even that the West has been claiming the high road all the time while being the main contributor to these catastrophes. Even though I understand that it's only being done because the one kicking off a war is now on the other side, the way that all of a sudden previously seemingly insurmountable mountains are suddenly moved in days because of this one war is what drives me mad.

I hear you bro. And your thoughts encapsulate my feelings on the matter quite well, especially the parts about feeling sympathy for Ukraine. If I'm honest, I don't. I see the hypocrisy and craziness clearly, so once we had extracted my brother I totally tuned out almost all war related news. They'll be alright.