Yeah, I suppose I doubt that the kind of people who climb to high position in rigid, paranoid hierarchies, like that I imagine exists in DPRK, are that irrational.

I don't think there's a real nuclear risk here from any one individual, but if there's a rapid transition of some kind that'd be the point where desperation was the greatest.

Under ordinary circumstances, we'd be likely to navigate to a situation where economic aid or the lifting of sanctions is promised in return for disarmament. That's happened in the past. Trump's rhetoric is problematic, as he's increasing the downside risk for himself of being seen to concede.

I guess a big question is what exactly is the DPRK going for? One Korea has been the goal, why would that change all of a sudden? I guess it's really up to China, they're the key player.

Playing someone’s advocate, Real Time’s Bill Maher wondered aloud tonight whether President Donald Trump’s nuke-threatening bluster against North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might, well, work.

“If by working,” answered CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, “you mean North Korea de-nuclearizing, I would give him the Nobel Prize. But I think that is highly, highly, highly unlikely.”

The HBO host didn’t press his original point.

Of course he didn't, the moron.

Good work Fareed

Bill Maher's a twat.

He's right up there with Piers Morgan in my book.

Hard to know whether to criticise all the semi-decent-of-heart edgelords out there for ever liking Bill Maher, or praise them for finally realising what a piece of shit he is.

But if you're still supporting Bill Maher in 2017, you're not paying attention.

16 days later

They didn't target Guam as they said they would, so this latest provocation is a deliberate sidestep. It seems they're prolonging the standoff with the US at this point while carefully avoiding an all out challenge.

2 months later

President Donald Trump has again traded barbs with North Korea, shortly before offering to mediate in a heated regional dispute.
He took to Twitter to complain he would never call North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "short and fat", after its foreign ministry called him "old".

It was one of a series of remarks he made on social media before volunteering his services over maritime claims in the South China Sea.
"I'm a very good mediator," he said.

😆 This is bizarre.

It's a bad American reality show beamed over the world stage

Hahaha. Reminds me of my pompous, self-absorbed film professor..."b-b-but, I'm a really good critique-er"...

5 months later

Anfield will be gutted.

I remember reading the below article a couple of months back but i'm still amazed how far this has gone as i thought they were playing up to the Olympics. As the saying, "success has many fathers", goes everyone is vying for credit but i don't think Kim would have moved this far and this fast without the collective combination of Trump, China, Russia and Moon.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43334320

If this continues to progress, that combination of players will be up for the Nobel prize. Imagine the Nobel panel discussing Trump’s candidacy. I guess if they give to to Lil Rocket Man, might as well.

The Nobel prize for peace awarded to Trump..... essentially for using twitter to insult Kim, call him names and to threaten him.

Jesus wept.

It wasn't twitter that forced Kim's hand.  😆
It was the turning off of the China lifeblood without which they are doomed.
For that, whether you hate Trump, you have to admit his ramped up pressure went further than any other recent US President.

Bold Tone wrote:

It wasn't twitter that forced Kim's hand.  😆

Donald Trump's unorthodox and unstable leadership had both Korean leaders worried about the potential of military options

The unorthodoxy and unstable nature conveyed directly by him on his twitter feed.

Credit should really go to Moon Jae-in.

However, it does show that the conventional approach towards NK by the US was a sack of shit.

Bold Tone wrote:

For that, whether you hate Trump, you have to admit his ramped up pressure went further than any other recent US President.

Why would I have to "admit"?
It is clear and obvious from his twitter feed that Trump's handing of North Korea was radically different from his predecessors - casually threatening to obliterate N Korea definitely went further than any other recent US President.

It's not directed at you in particular.
It is anyone who denies his influence as the most powerful player in the conflict.
As for his twitter, it is background noise.
He used it to talk shit before he was president and has continued talking shit on it as president.
The effect of leverage on China and biting sanctions are what effected change, imo.

I don't agree at all - his twitter "noise" dominated the mainstream news and online conversations, it drove the news cycle - it fed into genuine fear that he would embark on a full scale conflict.

Claudius wrote:

If this continues to progress, that combination of players will be up for the Nobel prize. Imagine the Nobel panel discussing Trump’s candidacy. I guess if they give to to Lil Rocket Man, might as well.

June 2000:

People have short memories.

Klaus wrote:
Claudius wrote:

If this continues to progress, that combination of players will be up for the Nobel prize. Imagine the Nobel panel discussing Trump’s candidacy. I guess if they give to to Lil Rocket Man, might as well.

June 2000:

People have short memories.

Well it worked till the US called North Korea part of the Axis of Evil and pushed for the Sunshine policy to be shelved....

Exactly, Mirth.

Any small progress that is being made here has nothing to do with Trump or the US, really. If anything it happens in spite of them like usual. This instance to always read the world with American glasses is hilarious. The mess on the Korean peninsula is American-made, that much is true, but that's rarely the angle people focus on. Let's keep giving them credit for any diplomatic relationships that have been established and keep talking down to the Koreans.

South Korea have softened up Kim for years now while the Trump administration has done nothing but trying to agitate a nuclear war. North Korea were invited to the winter olympics while Mike Pence showed up with Otto Warmbier's father as his +1. The meetings between Moon and Kim happened without American interference - which is probably why they happened at all.

Klaus wrote:

Exactly, Mirth.

Any small progress that is being made here has nothing to do with Trump or the US, really. This instance to always read the world with American glasses is hilarious. The mess on the Korean peninsula is American-made, that much is true, but that's rarely the angle people focus on. Let's keep giving them credit for any diplomatic relationships that have been established and keep talking down to the Koreans. South Korea have softened up Kim for years now while the Trump administration has done nothing but trying to agitate a nuclear war. North Korea were invited to the winter olympics while Mike Pence showed up with Otto Warmbier's father as his +1.

I wouldn't say they've been softening NK for years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/13/south-korea-says-time-for-tough-action-after-norths-nuclear-test

They completely adopted a punitive approach with the backing of Obama/Bush given that SK also had a conservative government in place till the scandal. While Trump's rhetoric isn't helpful, it also does not directly cause stress to the North Korean public and making it hard for NK to ever reach out. Bear in mind Trump is the first US president to consent to meeting the head of state of NK. the turning point has absolutely been in the last year with Moon being elected: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-election-idUKKBN18425M

Trump's ranting probably does have everyone running scared but I would put good money on Moon seizing his opportunity to play good cop here: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/search1/2603000000.html?cid=AEN20170701005500315

Also in a joint statement issued at the end of their summit, they said Trump has specifically "supported President Moon's aspiration to restart inter-Korean dialogue on issues including humanitarian affairs."

"Based on this change (in U.S. policy) and the trust formed between President Trump and I, I will resolve the North Korean nuclear issue without fail and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula," Moon said at the meeting with expat South Koreans.

It's absolutely fair to say that US approval plays a big role in how this situation plays out - even now.

Mirth wrote:
Klaus wrote:

Exactly, Mirth.

Any small progress that is being made here has nothing to do with Trump or the US, really. This instance to always read the world with American glasses is hilarious. The mess on the Korean peninsula is American-made, that much is true, but that's rarely the angle people focus on. Let's keep giving them credit for any diplomatic relationships that have been established and keep talking down to the Koreans. South Korea have softened up Kim for years now while the Trump administration has done nothing but trying to agitate a nuclear war. North Korea were invited to the winter olympics while Mike Pence showed up with Otto Warmbier's father as his +1.

I wouldn't say they've been softening NK for years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/13/south-korea-says-time-for-tough-action-after-norths-nuclear-test

They completely adopted a punitive approach with the backing of Obama/Bush given that SK also had a conservative government in place till the scandal. While Trump's rhetoric isn't helpful, it also does not directly cause stress to the North Korean public and making it hard for NK to ever reach out and the turning point has absolutely been in the last year with Moon being elected: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-election-idUKKBN18425M

Trump's ranting probably does have everyone running scared but I would put good money on Moon seizing his opportunity to play good cop here: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/search1/2603000000.html?cid=AEN20170701005500315

Aye, Moon getting elected has seen a big shift in policy.

I think the Chinese leaning on North Korea has had the biggest impact though. After they adopted the UN sanctions and gave NK companies 120 days nottice after the nuclear tests in october, things have been quiet. The Chinese market is 90 percent of all North Korean export. Kim can't even get oil into the country without them.

18 days later
9 days later

Trumps letter to Kim - wouldn't be out of place in the Tucker thread

😆

Trump's State Department has fucked it all up, deliberately, when a detente between north and south was on the verge of happening.

For shame, seriously.

Also, imagine following up a nuclear threat with "ultimately, it is only dialogue that matters" …

😆 Trump has only been remotely involved in this whole affair as a common nuisance and a fool to play off of. He makes everyone else seem rational and intelligent, and you'd have to be a goddamn fool not to take advantage of him. It's just so easy.

21 days later

Not a single one of them has ever heard of the concept of tailoring your pants legs.

It’s a style. Guys in the south like it.

Klaus wrote:

Not a single one of them has ever heard of the concept of tailoring your pants legs.

Or your jacket it seems.

Americans don't do suits well imo. Even when they do the shirts and trousers casual look I picture a typical sky blue shirt with the sleeves rolled up and slightly oversized beige chinos or trousers. The George Bush look.

Obama was well suited up though.

Europeans have more class in that suit dept.

Claudius wrote:

It’s a style. Guys in the south like it.

Stuck in the 90s.