Mr. Kimâs agreement to denuclearization talks is no guarantee that North Korea will start dismantling its arsenal. Mr. Kim said he would give up nuclear weapons only when he felt no more military threats. Previous efforts all collapsed over the same hurdle.
The Trump administration has escalated economic pressure, backed by threats of military force, to deal with North Korea. President Trump has said he is open to talks âonly under the right conditions,â and officials have insisted that the North first take actions to show sincerity.
Some analysts speculated that Mr. Kimâs charm cloaked a wily attempt to fend off sanctions and deflate talk of military action from Washington. With the United Nations banning major North Korean exports, including coal, fish and textiles, North Koreaâs exports have plummeted in recent months, a potentially crippling economic blow.
âEither Kim Jong-unâs New Yearâs resolution to be a nice guy is real or his smiles and soft messages for Seoul are a ploy for buying time and money to perfect his own nuclear posture review,â said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Although Mr. Moon, the Southâs leader, has repeatedly called for dialogue with the North, relations were deadlocked until Mr. Kim used his New Yearâs Day speech to propose an inter-Korean dialogue and offer to send athletes and cheerleaders to the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Mr. Kim also sent his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, to meet Mr. Moon and invite him to a summit meeting.
American officials argued that their pressure campaign had forced Mr. Kimâs hand. Nikki R. Haley, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, said last month, âSending cheerleaders to Pyeongchang was a sign of desperation, not national pride.â
But Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, said something else was at play: Kim Jong-unâs credible boast that he had a nuclear deterrent, giving him far more leverage with Washington and Seoul than his father ever possessed.
âWe see him increasingly self-confident about what he is doing,â Mr. Koh said. âIf we look at what has happened in the past couple months, it was Kim Jong-un who took the initiative in each key moment.â
