UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 62 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

goon

The uncertainly doesn't end with a no-deal brexit though, it just carries over to the next stage 10 fold. Also the only reason uncertainty costs with businesses not investing etc. is precisely because of the threat of an unfavorable outcome on the horizon surely? So pressing the nuclear button and going for the very worst of those possible outcomes doesn't really help.

goon

Call me cynical but I reckon the cabinet Boris has formed (basically Vote Leave) is more about the next GE than getting Brexit done. Either way, it is a truly horrific lineup.

Mirth

It definitely is but, jesus christ, that cabinet is basically the political equivalent of the Suicide Squad.

Mirth

jones

Yeah Corbyn is the one thing that's threatening to push Britain into uncoordinated Brexit. Whoever that Boles character is that's a vile strategy and he can fuck off.

Mirth

That's not his strategy nor does he have much control over this. He resigned as a Tory because his party didn't compromise - he's an independent MP. I don't think his assessment is wrong though, that does seem to be the game plan for the current government.

Qwiss

You don't think a former Tory and still conservative MP might have a bit of a bias against Corbyn?

I'm sort of amazed how many people buy into this "no one likes Corbyn" shite after it was so clearly shown to be utter horseshit in 2017.

Mirth

Qwiss! wrote:
You don't think a former Tory and still conservative MP might have a bit of a bias against Corbyn?

I'm sort of amazed how many people buy into this "no one likes Corbyn" shite after it was so clearly shown to be utter horseshit in 2017.

A big part of the reason for the swing towards Labour was to prevent Brexit and also because the Lib Dems were toxic back then following the coalition with the Tories. Since 2017, Labour's Brexit strategy has been as vague as Theresa May's strategy and deeply frustrating. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have become extremely vocal about remaining in the EU and have changed leaders enough times to disassociate themselves with their past image. As a result, they've been gaining a lot of support. It's not that Corbyn's policies are unpopular - but Brexit is now the only subject that will guide the electorates hand. Every party has picked a side - except Labour.

Closer to today, the European Elections a few months ago also didn't go well for Labour and they've done pretty poorly in the polls which is shocking considering how disorganised the government is. And it's true that Corbyn does not get a fair ride in the media - but then none of the other smaller parties, particularly the SNP, do either.

The truth is that both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are not popular choices to be PM- any future election will be decided by Brexit and not their personalities or any other polices. If Labour don't pick a coherent position - Leave or Remain - they will be left behind.

jones

You've misunderstood me - his strategy is to pin the blame for the current clusterfuck on Corbyn.

I'm not nearly as informed about British domestic politics as you are (probably more than ofty though) so I'm not in a position to discuss the power dynamics and differences between SNP, Plaid Cymru or Labour but it does strike me how obvious the cheap shots from every direction at Corbyn are.

The man had to endure more horseshit than anyone in UK politics, still managed to strengthen the Labour party more than anyone since Blair cannibalised it, he might not have a conclusive solution to the omnishambles that is Brexit - yet again who the fuck has - and still he's now again (instead of the radicals who are in power now) somehow labelled the primary obstacle between today and prosperity for all by dodgy Jewish "concerned" groups in Labour, neutral Independents and most of your media in unison. Let's not even get started with the Tories, that graphic how they would willingly accept economic downturn even destruction of their party to get Brexit through but not Corbyn speaks fucking volumes. If those people hate you to that degree you must be doing something right.

Mirth

jones wrote:
You've misunderstood me - his strategy is to pin the blame for the current clusterfuck on Corbyn.

I'm not nearly as informed about British domestic politics as you are (probably more than ofty though) so I'm not in a position to discuss the power dynamics and differences between SNP, Plaid Cymru or Labour but it does strike me how obvious the cheap shots from every direction at Corbyn are.

The man had to endure more horseshit than anyone in UK politics, still managed to strengthen the Labour party more than anyone since Blair cannibalised it, he might not have a conclusive solution to the omnishambles that is Brexit - yet again who the fuck has - and still he's now again (instead of the radicals who are in power now) somehow labelled the primary obstacle between today and prosperity for all by dodgy Jewish "concerned" groups in Labour, neutral Independents and most of your media in unison. Let's not even get started with the Tories, that graphic how they would willingly accept economic downturn even destruction of their party to get Brexit through but not Corbyn speaks fucking volumes. If those people hate you to that degree you must be doing something right.

I agree with everything you've said aside for the highlighted bit. The issue here is not about proposing a solution but to decide a fundamental question as to whether Labour are pro Brexit or pro Remain. Every other major party has answered that question - and that really is the question that will decide the next election. Not funding for the NHS. Not foreign policy. Not closing tax loopholes. Not even the current debate around antisemitism or immigration.

It's absolutely true that Corbyn is getting a rough side in the media - but, speaking anecdotally, most people who voted for Labour in 2017 aren't affected by those stories nearly as much as the lack of opposition to Brexit. Of course, that's just my perspective from sitting in a bubble in London but we'll see how it plays out over the next year.

Coombs

I don't think it should have to he a 50/50 choice for Leave/Remain. What you need is a vision and a clear path for achieving it.

goon

The problem with that is Brexit is a polarising issue and regardless of the good intentions trying to appeal to both sides has proven to be an awful stance for Labour (even the Tories have had to significantly up their pro-Brexit rhetoric). The Lib Dems are a joke party, they've had a leader who's barely there yet simply being a pro-EU party has seen them overtake Labour in some polls. They beat Labour in the massively Labour dominant London in the EP elections, that's insane.

Corbyn is a shit leader and politician. Having the media and the right set against you is no excuse, his 2017 GE campaign showed you can punch through that. The problem is all that energy has slowly dissipated, he didn't know how to build on it. Forget the media and right wing/centrist commentators, even his most loyal shadow cabinet members are frustrated by his stance. There's not a chance in hell he'll win a majority in the next GE in the current climate, so what's the point? He may as well still be a back bench protest MP.

jones

Yeah better get one of those Blairite leaders with a clear stance, that'll lead the UK to glory.

What is this stance you want to see anyway? The EU is an un- and even anti democratic institution that serves no purpose but German export industry, City interests, an ever increasing militarisation and generally being the American junior partner in whatever they propose - none of those facets probably appeal to him very much. Yet Brexit will not happen because of rejection of the aforementioned stuff but because of xenophobic sentiment and the actual breakaway will cause massive economic damage to those who are weakest anyway.

People act like there's a good choice to make here. There isn't, it doesn't matter who's in charge and plays tough man or annoying woman.

Mirth

So in effect Labour will continue to not represent the interests of those that voted for them in 2017 and that'll continue to cost them votes. For the purposes of the next General Election the 'case' for a left wing Brexit that you've illuminated will quickly become background noise because those votes have already moved to the Tories and/or the Brexit Party. That's not good leadership.

goon

It would at least get him elected. And that's the key point his supporters miss. If Corbyn want's to put all his policies in place he needs to win and win with a big enough majority to get his policies through. So suck it up and go with a Brexit stance that will enable you to do that, the large majority of Momentum, youth vote and middle class that would support him are massively pro-remain.

Also you don't need to be a centrist like Blair to be a good leader, speaker and have the ability to carry people with you.

jones

goon wrote:
It would at least get him elected. And that's the key point his supporters miss. If Corbyn want's to put all his policies in place he needs to win and win with a big enough majority to get his policies through. So suck it up and go with a Brexit stance that will enable you to do that, the large majority of Momentum, youth vote and middle class that would support him are massively pro-remain.

Also you don't need to be a centrist like Blair to be a good leader, speaker and have the ability to carry people with you.

So you want him to lie to the public so he can get elected?

goon

I'm not asking him to lie, I'm asking him to adopt a position (the same position he held in 2016). I'd argue that pretending you'll be able to negotiate a new deal is the bigger lie. The ambiguity of Labour's position recently feels deliberately designed to confuse to be all things to all people.

Qwiss

Isn't Labour ambiguity so that they aren't wiped out in the north? It's all well and good demanding a hard line on Brexit in London but what good is Labour taking a hard line on Brexit and then losing a load of seats in the north, then their platform wont matter because they wont have power.

As it is I hope Labour get in and do some sort of Norway plus deal. I just don't see remain as a viable reality any more.

goon

That's the theory though that may not necessarily be entirely correct:

[size=small]"So the largest block of leave voters were middle-class Conservatives, followed by working-class Conservatives. Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter. To be sure, had even half of these 2.2 million voters backed remain, the result of the referendum would be different. But to suggest that the referendum’s 17.4 million leave voters were dominated by working-class Labour supporters is simply wrong."[/size]

Also, trying to keep everyone happy just leads to leaking from both ends. What the polls and EP results show though is that Labour have a lot more to lose from the remain side:

"That said, it remains the case that a fair number of Labour leave voters still want Brexit and plan to switch their support next week, overwhelmingly to the Brexit party. But this should be put in context. In the 2016 referendum, Labour supporters divided two to one in favour of remain. Today the ratio is three to one. This means the number of Labour remain defectors to remain parties is three times as large as Labour leave defectors to leave parties – and has continued to grow."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

I think in a GE the losses will be much more subtle, but any losses at all will be a disaster.

MuswellHillGooner

Boris Johnson aide, a strident critic of Brussels, is accused of hypocrisy over payments.

Brexit enforcer Cummings' farm took €235,000 in EU handouts.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/10/dominic-cummings-owns-farm-got-eu-subsidy

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