UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 53 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

y va marquer

Burnwinter wrote:
y va marquer wrote:
A few months into a no deal Brexit is not the time for a border poll.
It is a destructive idea.

Brexit itself is a destructive idea—and in that sense, democracy is itself destructive.

If a majority of people want a border poll?

That's majoritarianism as opposed to democracy?

If politicians come under pressure from constituents, if citizens turn out in hundreds of thousands on the street to agitate for a border poll immediately post a no deal Brexit, if that becomes the number one concern over potential financial collapse then I would guess that our leaders may go for the border poll.

y va marquer

Qwiss! wrote:
Burnwinter wrote:
Maybe what all the nonsense and poor understanding, and contractual and diplomatic hurdles around Brexit demonstrate is that national borders are no longer all-determining in this era.

When it was all part of the EU that was a little true for some people. They felt European, they could travel back and forth over the border with no issue and they had the convenience of 2 passports. You could be a republican, with an Irish passport, consider yourself entirely Irish and yet still use the NHS.

Burnwinter wrote:
Obviously I don't know too much about Irish politics, but I think given time the significance of the division between north and south might fade away, and make the "unification" of Ireland very possible, but as something other than the establishment of a single fixed Irish citizenship, military, border, etc.

Seems like this was already slowly happening, people were comfortable with it, and it's the possibility of a temporary regression, the "hard border", that's making them anxious?

The hard border is definitely making people anxious but thats just part of it. A hard border completely contravenes the GFA so people worry what else they will lose. This is all added to losing the EU and freedom of movement, etc Its a massive change in peoples rights over the last 20 years. There is a big middle ground in NI that doesn't get much coverage. I've friends who are nominally Unionist because of where they are from, their families, etc but they would vote for reunification if Brexit goes through because they want to be in Europe. I've republican friends who 15 years ago didn't want a border poll because they didn't want to lose the NHS (this sentiment has dwindled due to the austerity cuts). There are people who live close to the border who's livelihood is threatened by a hard border. Most of these people aren't voting on hard Republican vs Unionist grounds, they just want what they thinks best for them and their families.

If there is a border poll called it will of course be met with resistance from Unionist groups in the North, probably some of it violent but I don't think it'd be anything like the troubles. In the Republic there will be little resistance beyond a few people complaining about how much it'll cost the state, how it'll raise their tax, etc There will be a massive shift in Irish domestic politics if it happens though and certain parties will grow while other will be relegated to far less significance. Fianna Fail, traditionally Irelands biggest party though currently 2nd due to their handling of the last recession, have recently started to make moves in NI politics by aligning with the SDLP, this to me is a clear indication they are preparing for a potential border poll in the coming years and the possibility of reunification. This wouldn't be happening if not for Brexit. There was no immediate push for a border poll from anyone 3 years ago, now there are articles in the papers here about it every week.

Your original post called for a border poll this year, this post seems to suggest you're walking that back?

If not - downplaying the economic fallout from a no deal Brexit and the impact that would have on the Republic, on top of downplaying the risk of a bloody Unionist para backlash in the event of a border poll, to promote the idea that the whole scenario would be something that would be almost universally accepted in relatively good spirit and faith, without too many consequences beyond a bit of violence and shift in party allegiances, is starry eyed at best, disingenuous at worst.

y va marquer

Burnwinter

😆 at Boris making a break for it.

Omnishambles doesn't even begin to cover it right now.

Burnwinter

y va marquer wrote:
That's majoritarianism as opposed to democracy?

If politicians come under pressure from constituents, if citizens turn out in hundreds of thousands on the street to agitate for a border poll immediately post a no deal Brexit, if that becomes the number one concern over potential financial collapse then I would guess that our leaders may go for the border poll.

Sure. Not being antagonistic, I have no dog in the fight. Just sort of pointing out that an Irish border poll would be a democratic inflection point similar to Brexit itself, the democratic legitimacy of which is itself cloudy, despite the Leave vote—having raised a whole heap of questions about adequate information (and disinformation) vital to democracy and so on.

We live in interesting times.

Coombs

Democracy being understood as a vote between two shit options is part of the trouble. Choice isn't democracy, nor is it inherently democratic to have choices. Democracy is a system of collective rule, not just deciding if you want pickles on your shitburger.

Burnwinter

As I said at the time my dear Coombs, the Brexit vote was a strange paroxysm, an unparalleled example of a cleavage between the form and content of democracy.

People voted very vehemently in a choice between two courses neither practically different in the ways that they cared about, nor well understood enough to be correctly distinguished in their actual differences.

Coombs

I didn't mean it to seem like such a direct response to your post, just musing on the conversation as a whole.

Burnwinter

Sometimes it feels like we're firing unresponsive statements at one another—in that sense I guess it's a bit like the larger scale theatre we're discussing.

y va marquer

It's the format , we wouldn't be exchanging essay length responses face to face.
I'm especially sensitive on the whole NI border poll issue, I fear a return to the violence of the past is the number one threat to us here on this island.
I have noticed a lot of anti English sentiment in casual conversation at work over the last few months, that's unsettled me as it's something that I had thought we had left behind.
My husband is English so I worry he'll have to put up with these digs and insults that would be seen as unacceptable if they were bandied about in relation to other non Irish people.

Burnwinter

That's totally understandable. Privilege is never to be placed in a situation where political anger feels like a threat.

y va marquer

Car bomb in Derry this weekend.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/derry-bomb-a-wake-up-call-over-security-issues-related-to-brexit-1.3764585%3fmode=amp

Some of the dissidents who are active are new young recruits who would have no memory of the Troubles and they want their own terrorism campaign,” said one senior Garda source.

“And for them the chaos and instability that might emerge from Brexit, let alone even minimal physical Border infrastructure, would be enough for them to rally around and attack.”

“We’re used to peace now but these people are committed to wrecking it, even 20 years on, as we saw in Derry this weekend,” the Dublin-based source said.

“We would be very foolish to think this violence wouldn’t and couldn’t be staged along the Border, planned from the Republic and the North.”

Something like this bomb in Derry was significant enough. But even smaller incidents could be the start of something [for dissidents] in terms of a campaign aimed at a hard border.

“A small number of attacks, or even causing a lot of disruption with planting devices that don’t explode; it could begin a pattern or a [terrorism] campaign much quicker than people realise.”

Back in 2016 I didn't think we'd end up at this juncture.

Coombs

This is where it was always going. Nothing to profit from in peace but peace itself. More carjackings now, and already we're hearing that current politics are irrelevant. It's just terrorism, they say, it doesn't have a basis in given conditions, it is simply evil and that's all we need to know. The people who suffer don't care why, we're told.

If Brexit, the Irish border question, the Israeli occupation of Palestine, the US-Mexico border, Kashmir, Burma/Myanmar, Bhutan, Syria, etc. don't illustrate a conscious, systemic need for nation-states to purposefully espouse and create the conditions for violence in order to justify their existence, I don't know what does.

So frustrating.

Qwiss

There is absolutely no doubt that if there is a hard/militarised border then there will be attacks on the border posts. Thats an inevitability.

And its one looking more likely by the day. https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0122/1024720-brexit/

y va marquer

arsedocmd

https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1087524/rachel-johnson-topless-sky-news-brexit-pictorial-bateman-good-morning-britain-itv

Brits are crazy

goon

I’m so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so so sooooooooooooooo tired of Brexit.

As long as it not a no deal I don’t even fucking care what they do at this point, just make it stop.

flobaba

Breastxit

Qwiss

http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/03/09/news/karen-bradley-discussed-getting-british-soldiers-who-served-in-the-north-off-the-hook--1568852/

Non-Brexity but this woman cannot be allowed to keep her job. She went into not understanding that catholics and protestants in Northern Ireland vote along sectarian lines, then last week she said the British armed forces and the police in Northern Ireland committed no crimes during the troubles and now this. With tensions rising around Brexit comments and actions like this are extremely provocative and the last thing thats needed.

banduan

y va marquer wrote:
It's the format , we wouldn't be exchanging essay length responses face to face.
I'm especially sensitive on the whole NI border poll issue, I fear a return to the violence of the past is the number one threat to us here on this island.

I'm never really completely in tune to Irish goings on but methinks this will continue to be a spectre on the population of NI until the day comes when the pro-union finally realise that a united Ireland without the colonial borders makes more sense regardless their own sentiments.

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